Политология/2. Политическая конфликтология

Candidate of Political Science Polyakov E.M.

Voronezh State University, Russia

Youth bulge-theory about causes of political instability, conflicts and wars in the modern society

It is generally accepted to believe that the rise of nationalism and roused by it war hysteria and revenge-seeking due to purely political factors, such as: past defeats, the competition between world powers, the use of xenophobia in order to unite the nation against the "enemy", etc.

A completely different approach offers the so-called youth bulge-theory. According to her, a global threat to the world's leading powers and the whole international stability and security in the coming decades represent countries and regions with a large number of young people in the population. The general political instability, a tendency toward authoritarianism regimes, and the frequent revolutions in the countries of these regions is not a consequence of the boundedness of politicians, remnants of the colonial past and cultural backwardness.

M. Fuller notes that the youth bulge will always occur where the structure of the population young people 15-24 years of age or children under the age of 14 years will be at least 20 or 30 percent of the total population [1, 151-154]. "Bulge" will occur not in countries with a lot of young people (such as China), but in places where young people are forced to compete among themselves for access to positions of prestige and social status.

U.S. Department of Defense expects that in the near future for developed countries and the United States itself would be unacceptable conduct ground-based military operations due to inability to quickly make up for losses in manpower due to the low birth rate - while the developing countries do not have this problem [2, 3]. Indeed, we can already see how the United States refuse to conduct ground operations, at least, alone - so it was in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. However, this does not allow them to exercise real control over the territory and to realize its objectives in full.

The threat of instability can not be addressed through indirect victories, such as fighting poverty and hunger. They do not interfere with the growth of population in developing countries do not reduce the "demographic factor". Although between 1990 and 2000 world population increased by 1 billion people, the proportion of hungry people fell from 20 to 17 percent, and the number of people living on U.S. $ 1 - declined from 1280 to 1150 million [3, 23].

The main threat to national security will not be shortage of food, but the lack of opportunities for personal growth and gaining status. The youth bulge is emerging precisely because the social status of the father, is likely to be inherited by the eldest son - and all future offspring will need to seek its own [4, 21]. In a society where families have two or more of the sons, a growing willingness to risk young people to ensure their well-being is not, but the social world. Such a society shapes the mentality, whose carriers are willing to make sacrifices and hardships for the common good, even understood wrong. This creates a breeding ground for aggression, nationalism, politically-motivated terrorism.

Characteristically, the presence of a large number of children and teens do not stop, and stimulates the national liberation movements around the world to become more active. In some cases this leads to the formation of so-called children's armies, as was the Tamil Tigers. By the end of 1999 in more than 50 countries around the world in child armies served approximately 300,000 soldiers, most professing different religions, from Catholicism to Buddhism [4, 21].

However, the main threat of youth bulge is in danger of civil war and the urban guerrilla. At present, 60 out of 67 major nations, faced with the youth bulge, survived the civil conflicts of varying intensity, from riots to the genocide. Moreover, contrary to popular myth about the Islamic threat, the relationship with the religious factor is not observed: only about half of these countries have a Muslim majority or significant minority, others - Christian (and all branches), and even Buddhist countries [4, 36].

References:

1. Fuller M. The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview. In: The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in 1990’s, Washington: CIA Hg., (RTT 95-10039, October), 1995.

2. “Geostrategic Change and the Evolving Threat: What Sort of World 2020?” In: General-lieutenant R.L.Rigby, Future Combat System Industry Day, 2002.

3. Hunger und Armut in Abnahme begriffen: Partielle Entwiklungserfolge in den Neunziger Jahren / Neue Zueriche Zeitung, 2002, Nr.193, 22. August.

4. Heinson G. Soehne und Weltmacht: Terror im Aufstieg und Fall der Nationen, Zuerich, Orell Fuessli Ferlag AG, 2006.

5. See: Stop the Use of Child Soldiers (www.hrw.org)