K.Sh.Arabbayev
Research supervisor: S.K.Jumambayev
Al-Farabi Kazakh
national university, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Dynamics
of changes in the structure of the national economy of Kazakhstan
Structure of the economy
is crucial to the balance of the national economy, increase economic growth. We
can say that successful economic development in most countries of the West in
no small part due to deep structural changes that provide a general increase in
production and other qualitative changes in the economy [1. 32].
The structure of modern
domestic economy was formed for more than two decades. In economic activity
services to which share more than a half of GDP falls dominate. The share of
manufacturing industry keeps steadily within the last decade, and relative
value of agriculture considerably decreased and in 2012 made only 6,5% of GDP
in comparison with 16,4% in 2001 [4]. Such process of structural transformation
is typical for "catching up" like economy.
The Republic of
Kazakhstan receives income from oil revenues. The rise in prices on world
commodity markets contributed to higher growth of extractive industries that
are traditionally export in Kazakhstan. The structure of industrial production
reflects this situation (see. Table 1).
Table 1. Structure of
industrial production (percent)
|
|
1995 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Industry, total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
Mining industry |
25,7 |
61,3 |
63,3 |
60,8 |
60,4 |
|
Manufacturing industry |
51,4 |
31,8 |
30,2 |
32,3 |
32,4 |
|
Power
supply, supply of gas, couple and air conditioning |
22,9 |
6,9 |
6,5 |
6,9 |
7,2 |
Source: Agency of the
Republic of Kazakhstan on Statistics. http://www.stat.gov.kz/
The greatest share in
structure of the industry is the share of the mining industry of 60,4%,
manufacturing industry of 32,4%, of power supply – 6,3% and for water supply –
0,94%.
On structure of
production the share of manufacturing industry still remains low. Thus, the raw
material orientation of the economy still remains.
Analysis of the data
showed that in 2013 in Kazakhstan's economy experienced relatively high growth
rate. According to the operative data of gross domestic product amounted to
231.9 billion. Dollars. United States, which is 6% higher than in 2012 in
comparable prices [4]. In the GDP share of manufacturing goods was 39.7%,
services - 53.3%. In the dynamics compared to the previous year the volume
index of commodity sector increased from 98.7% to 103.3%, while the services
sector has slowed the growth of 110% to 107% due to the decrease in the rate of
growth of volume in all directions activities (trade, communications, financial
services, transport, etc.). The largest share in the GDP accounts for the
manufacturing sector services - 53.3%, and the production of goods - 39.7%, and
taxes on products and imports - 7%. (See. Table 2).
Table 2. Structural
changes and the proportion of GDP by industry and spheres of activity of
Kazakhstan for 2005-2013., as a percentage.
|
|
2005 |
2010 |
2012 |
2013 |
|
GDP Including:
1.Production of goods |
43,5 |
43,8 |
40,7 |
39,7 |
|
2. Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
6,4 |
6,6 |
6,5 |
4,5 |
|
3. Industry |
29,7 |
32,9 |
30,5 |
29,3 |
|
4. Building |
7,4 |
8,9 |
6,6 |
5,9 |
|
5. Production services |
52,7 |
54,8 |
52,9 |
53,3 |
|
6. Trade |
18,5 |
14,7 |
15 |
17 |
|
7. Transport |
9,6 |
11,6 |
11,3 |
8 |
|
8.
Connection |
2,1 |
2,2 |
2 |
2 |
Source: Agency of the
Republic of Kazakhstan on Statistics. http://www.stat.gov.kz/
Now the predominance of
the primary sector usually shows a very low level of economic development of
the country or region. An example of this are the many African countries, where
there is still a large part of the population is engaged in agriculture. But
there are exceptions. The primary sector (oil) is the backbone of the economy
of the rich countries of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Qatar). However, many
experts believe that such a development is not normal, and in the end does more
harm than good.
At the current stage of
development of Kazakhstan has an important task to overcome the backward
economic structure and negative trends that emerged in recent years. In this
regard, the Government of the country implemented various programs to
rationalize the structure of the national economy.
The country has been
developed and is now completed the first phase GP FIIDK for 2010-2014.
Today the second phase
identified priority areas and key performance indicators of economic
diversification in the years 2015-2019.
Successful
diversification of the economy associated with the sustainable development of
the republic, including by:
a) the introduction of
modern technologies based on renewable resources and energy;
b) optimizing the
management of sustainable development and implementation of "green"
policy of low-carbon economy [2; 25].
Diversification of the
economy will be linked with plans to build centers of economic growth in order
to create a rational territorial organization of economic potential and
favorable conditions for the population.
Kazakhstan, with its
vast land resources has long term comparative advantage in the development of
agricultural production. The industrialization of agriculture is associated
primarily with increased efficiency, increasing the competitiveness of the
industry. Given that live in rural areas 45.9% of the population in the long
term development of the agricultural sector will be a key factor in improving
the quality of life of the rural population.
The second phase
involves GP FIIDK (Governmental Program
Forcing industrial-innovative development of Kazakstan) doubling GDP.
The total investment is projected to be $ 45 billion. dollars. In this case, a
significant portion of investment is foreign direct investment.
It is expected that by
2020, domestic and foreign investment in non-primary sectors of the economy
(manufacturing, agro-processing, services) will increase by at least 30%. The
share of foreign direct investment (FDI) to GDP will increase by ten percentage
points. The share of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the GDP will
increase by 7-10%. Diversifying the sources of investment (10 major investor
countries with a share of each country 5% or more).
Analysis of the results
achieved during the years of the first stage GP FIIDK showed that the growth
rate of GDP Kazakhstan already today ahead of the target indicator of GDP
growth in nominal terms by 39%, and in real - by 7.5%. The share of innovative
enterprises in the period of 2008-2014 years have seen increased - from 4% in
2008 to 8% in 2014. In particular, it can be noted a sharp increase in the number
of innovative enterprises in the engineering industry (from 6% to 36%) in the
sector of information and communication technologies (from 5.6% to 19%),
chemical industry (from 12.5% to 28%), in the oil and gas sector
(from 1.5% to 9%).
A huge responsibility
for the quality of the implementation of strategic goals and objectives of the
new decade rests on the system of public administration. This requires
improving the efficiency of government and public institutions, personnel
policy, and to fight corruption, the development of the legal system of
Kazakhstan and increase the quality of public services.
References
1. Обзор инновационного развития Казахстана,
Организация Объединенных Наций, Нью-Йорк и Женева, 2012 год.- с. 32-34
2. Стратегический план развития Республики
Казахстан до 2020 года: Утвержден Указом Президента Республики Ка¬захстан от 1
февраля 2010 г. № 922 // Мысль. — 2010. — № 3. — С. 15-42.
3. Агентство по статистике РК. http://www.stat.gov.kz/
4. Программа
индустриально-инновационного развития Казахстана: первые итоги реализации.
Категория: Экономика/кризис 1407 25.11.2013. http://www.kp.kz/