Modern science and its
perspectives.
Современная наука и ее перспективы
I.V. Antsiferova, A.I. Zenkov
Perm state technical university
At this moment science development becomes a new
paradigm of social and economic country development. It is necessary to introduce
innovative approaches in all spheres of life to approve Russia among
technological and intellectual development leaders.
Manufacture of new knowledge defines economic growth,
provides structural reorganization of an industrial complex, saturation of the
market by various and competitive production, equal integration in rights into
world economy.
Manufacturing of new knowledge and formation of
conditions for advancement of scientific and technical workings out in economy
is exclusively important. If it will not be possible to compensate leaving of
the industrial machine at modern scientific and technical level, production
volume in the industry will be reduced.
They distinguish these basic mechanisms of
manufacturing and using new knowledge in industrial processes:
1) the venture mechanism of development of
innovations, the mechanism of private capital investments in scientifically
research and experimentally structural works sphere;
2) the mechanism of regional scientific and technical
resources activisation;
3) the mechanism of technological transfers.
Investments of new knowledge in manufacture are
characterized by realization time, useful effect (efficiency) from investments
in the form monetary streams increasing, cost price decreasing, industrial
losses prevention, growth of expenses indemnification. Managing entity tends to
get additional profit while getting and introducing new knowledge in the
industrial processes.
The assessment of expediency of investments in new
knowledge manufacturing for its introduction into industrial processes is
carried out as follows:
1. Definition of the problems, which decision demands
the organization of manufacturing processes and new knowledge introduction in
economical activities of economic subjects.
2. Calculation of the investments demanded in new
knowledge manufacturing.
3. The assessment of possible profit. The cumulative
profit from new knowledge using is considered: reduction of costs, cost price
decrease, productivity increase. Profitableness from an investment in
manufacture of new knowledge with norm of the profitableness operating at
economic calculations of the managing entity is compared. Investments in new
knowledge would be expedient if profitableness of manufacture of new knowledge
is not less than norm of profitableness.
Enterprise activity in Russia in the innovation field
is insignificant in contrast with developed countries. However this year for
nanotechnology development it will be allocated 130 million roubles (about 3.3
million euros). This direction is considered as one of the strategic
directions. There is created council of nanotechnologies. In the future
nanotechnologies will enter into life of each person, will allow to save
natural resources, they will be used in medicine, the food-processing industry,
energetics, materials technology, avia- and shipbuilding, rocket and space
industries.
In the report at the international conference of
UNESCO devoted to a role of a science in the XXI-st century the employee of
Institute for global futures J. Kenton had predicted that in the third millennium
only societies which would better than others organize social systems connected
with nanotechnologies (the organization, training, development) will be successful and prosperous. Using
nanotechnologies can lead to time economy, obtaining the maximum benefit for
the smaller price and increasing the standard of living. Combination of
nanotechnologies to such achievements of the XXI-st century as computers,
networks and biotechnologies will create new possibilities which the human
society didn't know for all its history [14].
One of priority directions
of development of modern materials technology are new materials including
nanotechnologies. That's the reason why the US president is the head of the
National board on new materials, and in Russia Council about new materials,
technologies and formation is also headed by the President of Russia.
To
nanomaterials are conditionally carried disperse and massive materials
containing structural elements (grains, crystalline particles, blocks,
clasters) which geometrical sizes at least in one measurement don't exceed 100
nanometers and possessing qualitatively new properties, functional and
operational characteristics. Technologies providing possibility in the controllable
mode to create and modify nanomaterials, also to perform their integration into
high-grade functioning systems larger scale should be carried to
nanotechnologies.
The
nanotechnology is a technology which is applied in all spheres of production
and thats why it could ensure the transformation not only productions but also
human life.
Nanotechnologies
will play a considerable role in the decision of many problems connected with
preservation of the environment. This usage of nanounits in systems of research
and control of products and a waste of various chemical manufactures, creation
of pure technologies, sewage treatment. The main point in nanotechnologies is
manufacting and applying the production meeting a principle of resource-economy
and reduction of polluting emissions.
The
main influence on change in social sphere also is connected with development of
nanotechnologies in information technology, biology, medicine, ecology,
energetics, materials technology, auto industry, agriculture.
Possibilities
of usage of nanotechnologies in information technology is a multiple increase
of productivity of transfer system, it is the technics of information storing,
creation of biosensors capable to monitor organism condition and analyze
microquantities of substance, creation of devices of new network connection,
creation of new semi-conductor technics (carbon tubes, new type of storage
units).
Possibilities
applying of nanodevices in information technology also will lead to
considerable decreasing in power consumption, increasing of memory of storage
devises, changes in health services system (development of system of health
services, decreasing of expenses on health services, development of early
diagnostics systems).
Biology and medicine are priority courses of a world science and economy
development. These sciences provide prime requirements of the person. These
sciences provide prime human requirements.
Today the world passes to the sixth technological step
calculated for 50–60 years of XXI century. Russia is now at the third, fourth
and first stages of the fifth technological way. The enterprises of a hi-tech
military-industrial complex concern the last mainly. Thus the most complicated
task is to perform transition to the sixth technological step not up to the end
having mastered previous - the fifth.
What IS the kernel of the sixth technological spet,
what its base directions? First of all it is nanotechnologies, biotechnologies,
information communication technologies, technologies of new materials.
Development of this way in the world is observed within 15–20 years, and in 15
years thanks to new achievements we expect sweeping changes in economic and
social spheres. To 2020-2025 there will happen new scientific and technical,
technological revolution and the workings out synthesizing achievements of base
technologies sphere in named before directions will become as a basis of this
revolution.
The world countries seriously estimate, weigh, analyze
this situation, and many of them have accepted their strategies of development
till 2030, but some of them – till 2050. Strategy of science development of the
USA, the European Union, Japan, South Korea is forming in the light of
achievements of the fifth and sixth technological steps. Priority scientific
researches of these countries are based on breakthrough technological
directions: nano - bio - information-communication technologies and others connected
with these directions .
As to the hi-tech production market so today we can
already count its prospects.
So if to correlate the world market of high
technologies (about 3 trillion dollars) and the market of power resources (700
billion dollars) the difference will be a little bit more than in 4 times.
Within the next years (till 2020) it expected growth of volume of the market of
hi-tech production till 10-12 trillion dollars in the basic directions, and the
market of power resources – to 1 trillion 200 million dollars.Hence if today
the parity of hi-tech and energy commodity markets is 4:1, so future there will
be a scale change and a parity will become 10:1. That is why the developed
countries focus their strategies first of all on the development of world
segments of the market of high technologies. For this reason knowledge economy
today is the main in strategies, and for our country is a call of time.
Where Russia IS, on what level,
is it possible to make innovative breakthrough (about which so much talk)
proceeding from present difficult, a crisis state of a hi-tech complex?
Nevertheless, Russia has a chance. The forecast till the 1st of December 2008
which was carried out the Russian Academy of Sciences under instructions of the
President of Russia has allowed to draw a conclusion that actually in the
country there are results world and above world level. │ 4 │ It is
pleasant that in Russia as of 2008 there are researches and workings in the
field of critical technologies which are breakthrough practically in all
directions of the sixth technological step. Therefore it is possible to say
that we have a chance. Further it is necessary to concentrate a personnel,
financial, organizational resource to these priorities not to spend power for
development of directions on which in the world they have gone too far
concerning our level. We have to
borrow world achievements.
The analysis of the structure and
the basic branches of the Russian economy on competitiveness degree in the
world market has shown that there is a chance to carry out technological
breakthrough (possibility to occupy a significant share in the world market –
10–15%) in the field of aircraft engineering, nuclear power, space-rocket
systems and separate segments of the market nanoindustry where we have serious
scientifically-technological reserves. Also we understand where there is a
certain technological parity and where – lag behind from the world level. On
some positions it is required a technological borrowing.
However except the technological
part of humanity development there are also social, economic problems which
define the future of the humanity.