УДК 339.98

Ю.А. Рыжкова - к.э.н., доцент

ВОЗМОЖНЫЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ВЛИЯНИЯ САНКЦИЙ НА ЭКОНОМИКУ РОССИИ

Ryzhkova Yu. A., Kalashnikova D. V.

THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF SANCTIONS IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN THE SHORT AND LONG PERSPECTIVE

The sanctions were imposed against Russia because of its position on the "Ukrainian question". The political events taking place in Ukraine, can hardly leave anyone indifferent. In this country, came to power radically-minded government. Not the entire population of Ukraine agree with the new leadership. Thus, the inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were against the new regime, and local authorities held a referendum on the status of Crimea. On the basis of the official results of the referendum and the Declaration of Independence adopted by the Supreme Council of Crimea, was declared an independent Republic of Crimea, and signed the agreement with Russia on the entry into the Russian Federation in March 2014 [1]. In the opinion part of the international community, accession the Crimea to Russia had the character of annexation, and therefore a number of countries have imposed economic sanctions against our country.

Sanctions can be divided into several logical groups: personal (affecting specific people), financial, against the oil and gas sector, restrictions on exports goods/dual-use technologies. easier such is the case with personal sanctions – concerning individual citizens, they in minor extent reverberate on the economy as a whole [2].

There are two sides of the same coin from the introduction economic sanctions – it is or it is an opportunity to establish domestic production or deterioration of the economic situation in the country. The majority of Russian citizens and the representatives authorities are confident, that now occurred is the opportunity several amend in the economic situation in the country, as well as gain new allies.

In our opinion, the imposition of sanctions against Russia only proves, that the modern world, mostly, remains unipolar, and those, who do not agree with « general spread » opinion trying soever subordinate his will. Russia stands for the diversity of opinions, for the right of other states to determine their path. Until recently, under sanctions were Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya. When their failed finish sanctions, their finish bombs. In our opinion, sanctions and military aggression – it is also to some extent manifestation of the two sides of the same coin from the imposition of sanctions.

EU Foreign Ministers January 29, 2015 year at an emergency meeting in Brussels decided to extend in respect of 25 Russian citizens sanctions, entered in March 2014 year. These measures include the freezing of bank accounts and a ban on entering the EU.

moreover, EU plans to impose additional sanctions, project to expand the list of which, consideration February 9, 2015 year. This issue is also going to discuss at the level of Heads of State and Government of the European Union.

Also reported, EU Foreign Ministers was instructed within 10 days to prepare proposals for the expansion of the "black list" of Russian citizens.

Action the sanctions in the short term citizens Russia can feel the devaluation of the ruble, since from it depends the value of all imported goods that are imported to Russia, on the bankruptcy of a number of travel agencies in the country. Russians felt the impact of the sanctions after the introduction of responses sanctions by the Russian Federation, as a result began to increase in prices on foodstuffs in the domestic market. Thus, according to the Federal Antimonopoly Service, the rise in price most affect meat, prices for meat products increased from 20% to 40%, after followed by dairy products (especially cheeses), fruits and vegetables [3].

Most acutely to changes in the economy reacts to the financial sector. Since the beginning of 2014 the national currency in Russia fell strongly by 17.5%. Sanctions will be a long time to have a negative impact on the financial market, and the Russian economy as a whole and hinders their development. Considering the long-term prospect, you must pay attention to the change in GDP. According to estimated analysts on the results of 2014 due to sanctions Russia will lose about 23 billion euros, or 1.5% of GDP, and in 2015 nearly 75 billion euros, that even stronger impact on the economy and will be almost 5% of GDP. Важно отметить, importantly mark, that under these conditions significantly slows down the flow of foreign investment in Russia, 75% which fall in the country members of the European Union [3].

In our opinion, in general sanctions west can hardly threaten collapse Russian economy and cannot greatly affect the further development of the country in the near future. Но все же, nevertheless, in many of their actions have a negative impact in the future, for example, may be limited access to new technologies. In the long term, if current trends continue, the sanctions can be very "painful" blow to the Russian economy and for ordinary Russians.

Bibliography of literature:

1. Crimean parliament adopted the Declaration of Independence of the ARC and the city of Sevastopol - (access mode) URL: http://www.rada.crimea.ua/news/11_03_2014_1.

2. Hestanov C. Sanctions: short-term and long-term consequences - Journal of RZB. - 2014. - №8 (445) (access mode) URL: http://www.rcb.ru/rcb/2014-08/269658/.

3. The influence of sanctions on the Russian economy. Is there an effect? – (access mode) URL: http://finliga.com/news/vlijanije-sankcii-na-rossiju.html