Economy

The analysis of methods of an estimation of a financial and economic condition of the enterprises of agriculture

Visockaya T.V.

The summary. In article the most popular methods of financial analysis of the enterprises of agriculture are considered. Their comparative characteristic is given and efficiency of their application is researched.

Keywords: agriculture, a financial condition, Altman's model.

Ι. Entering. One of the major characteristics of a financial condition of the enterprise - stability of its activity from a position of long-term prospect. It is connected, first of all, with general financial structure of the enterprise, degree of its dependence on creditors and investors. So, many businessmen, including representatives of public sector of economy, prefer to put a minimum of own means in business, and to finance it at the expense of the money borrowed. However if the structure «own capital - extra means» has a considerable warp towards debts, the enterprise can go bankrupt, when some creditors simultaneously will demand the means back during "inconvenient" time.

II. Task Statement.

Despite seeming simplicity of a task of quantitative estimation of financial soundness of the enterprise, the uniform conventional approach to construction of corresponding algorithms of an estimation is not present. The indicators included in various techniques of the analysis, can essentially vary as in a quantitative sense, and on calculation methods. Our task to state an estimation to existing methods of financial analysis of the enterprises of agriculture.

E.Altman's "Z-account" represents the five-factorial model constructed according to successfully acting and gone bankrupt industrial enterprises of the USA. The summary coefficient of probability of bankruptcy Z settles payments with the help of five indicators, each of which has been allocated by the certain weight established by statistical methods [1]:

where - a share of pure working capital in assets;

- The relation of the saved up profit to assets;

- Profitability of assets;

- The relation of marketable value of all usual and enterprise preference shares to extra means;

- Turnover of assets.

Depending on value of "Z-account" on a certain scale the estimation of probability of approach of bankruptcy within two years is produced:

If Z <1, 81 the probability of bankruptcy is very great;

If 1,81 <Z <2,675, probability of bankruptcy average;

If Z = 2,675 the probability of bankruptcy is equal 0,5.

If 2,675 <Z <2,99 the probability of bankruptcy is insignificant;

If Z> 2,99 the probability of bankruptcy is insignificant.

It is necessary to notice that use of such model demands great cautions. In - the first, the given model was developed very much for a long time, in 1960 - 1970, after its creation there has passed the whole epoch. Has in this time changed macro- and a microeconomic situation in all camps. Many specifications (for example, a ratio of extra and own means) have changed also. The model calculated under the statistical data of those years, cannot correctly describe and predict a situation of today. In - the second, cannot be universal models which would be ideally suited for all industries of economy even separately taken country as owing to features of various industries the importance of separate indicators essentially differs. There are essential distinctions and on a capital turnover rate, on level of incomes on the invested capital.

G.V.Savitskaya in work [2] was engaged in improvement of model of E.Altman. By means of methods of the multidimensional analysis has established that the greatest role in change of a financial position of agricultural enterprises is played by indicators:

- a share of own working capital in forming of turnaround assets, coefficient;

- coefficient of turnover of working capital;

- coefficient of financial independence of the enterprise (a share of own capital in general currency of balance);

- profitability of own capital.

The given indicators are taken as a principle developments of model for for diagnostics of risk of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises which has received following expression:

If the tested enterprise for the given model types value 0 and more low. That it is estimated as financially steady. On the contrary, the enterprise, important an integrated indicator 1 and above, concerns group of high risk. Intermediate value from 0 to 1 characterises degree of affinity or range of the enterprise from this or that group.

But also in this model there is a lack which consists that for its development the information of 2160 agricultural enterprises of Byelorussia for 2003 is used. Though Russia and Belarus country which has left one post-Soviet territory, but their economic development has essential distinctions. Therefore to apply model to forecasting of bankruptcy to the agrarian and industrial complex enterprises in such kind in which represents its G.V.Savitskaya it is impossible.

Scientists of the Kazan state technological university offer a technique, allowing to correct a prediction of bankruptcy taking into account specificity of industry [3]. They offer division of all enterprises for credit status classes. Calculation of a class of credit status is connected with classification of turnaround assets on degree of their liquidity. They had been calculated values of indicators for following industries: the industry (mechanical engineering); trade (wholesale and retail); building and the design organisations; a science (scientific servicing). But, besides, remained without attention of agrarian and industrial complex the big share in which occupies the agricultural industry.

III. Results. From the analysis of methods of an estimation of a financial and economic condition of the enterprises of agrarian and industrial complex, it is possible to draw a conclusion that there is no the method focused on this industry of production. And applying separate methods, it is possible to receive the deformed result.

IV. Conclusions. For effective financial analysis of the enterprises of agriculture it is necessary to use "classical" methods in aggregate with innovative, such as neural networks which are capable to be adjusted and trained irrespective of character of the data used for the analysis.

The literature

1. Sheremet A. D. The complex analysis of economic activities: the Textbook for high schools. - M.:ИНФРА - M, 2008. - 416 with.

2. Savitsky, G.V. Analiz of enterprise economic activities: the Textbook. - 4 edition, - TH.:ИНФРА - M, 2008. - 512 with.

3. Kustova T.N. Analysis and diagnostics of financial and economic activity of the enterprise: the Education guidance. - Rybinsk, 2003. - 200 with.