3^rd course PhD student Ishuova Zh.Sh.

Al Farabi Kazakh National University

Construction of DSGE model with not absolutely flexible prices and by the National Bank of Kazakhstan acting according to a Taylor rule

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models for the monetary policy analysis are widely used among central banks. These models are used to discuss central banks’ behavior in different economic development scenarios [1]. We model the Kazakhstan’s economy as a small open economy represented by the unit interval. Since the economy is of measure zero, its domestic policy decisions do not have any impact on the rest of the world. Next we describe in detail the problem facing households and firms located in Kazakhstan’s economy. Variables with an i ϵ [0, 1] subscript refer to economy i, one among the continuum of economies making up the world economy.

A typical small open economy is inhabited by a representative household who seeks to maximize , where N_t denotes hours of labor, and C_t is a composite consumption index defined by , where C_H,t is an index of consumption of domestic goods given by the CES function , where j ϵ [0, 1] denotes the good variety. C_F,t is an index of imported goods given by , where C_i,t is, in turn, an index of the quantity of goods imported from country i and consumed by domestic households. It is given by an analogous CES function . Notice that parameter ε>1 denotes the elasticity of substitution between varieties (produced within any given country). Parameter α ϵ [0, 1] is related to the degree of home bias in preferences, and is thus a natural index of openness. Parameter η>0 measures the substitutability between domestic and foreign goods, from the viewpoint of the domestic consumer, while measures the substitutability between goods produced in different foreign countries [2]. To estimate the model we use quarterly data for the period from 1992Q1 to 20012Q4. We choose the following seven observable variables: real GDP, short-run real interest rate, a measure of core inflation computed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the real exchange rate, nominal exchange rate devaluation, real wages and labor input. We also utilize series on oil imports and the real price of oil. We discuss the effects of an oil shock – an increase in the real price of oil – on different domestic variables. We present some impulse–response functions generated under the preferred model and we compare the outcome with the one that would have been obtained under different policy rules, and under flexible wages and prices.

Figure 1. Reaction of interest rates and inflation on the interest rate shock

In the first version of monetary policy is assumed that the National Bank will apply the following parameters of monetary rules: ϕ_π=2.5 and ϕ_y=1. It means that the interest rate will increase by 1.5% if inflation exceeds its target by 1%.

Figure 2. Reaction of the output gap and its components on the technology shock:

Nominal interest rate, as opposed to the real, after the shock almost unchanged. It is increased only by 0.01%. Although the initial shock is 1%, this leads to deflation and the formation of a negative output gap, and hence to the necessity reducing the interest rate of the National Bank (see figure 1–2). Comparing the analysis of consequences of monetary policy options for the Republic of Kazakhstan with data for the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus in the works of Ivashchenko [3] and Drobyshevsky [4], we can conclude that monetary policy in the Republic of Kazakhstan meets the standards adopted in the leading countries: a clear anti-inflation policy is evident (a growth in inflation by 1 percentage point results in a rate increase of 0.75%).

References:

1. Poghosyan K. and G. Barseghyan. DSGE model of open economy with sticky wages and prices (the case of Armenia) [Electronic resource] // CIS Research Network. – URL: http://www.eerc.ru/Selected/Fall_2011/Poghosyan_Proposal.pdf.

2. Galí J. and T. Monacelli. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy // NBER Working paper №8905. –2002 – pp. 1–43.

3. Ivashchenko A.S. Impact of monetary shocks on macroeconomic dynamics [Electronic Res.] // URL: http://mmaetst.narod.ru/archieve/251110_seminar_ai.pdf.

4. Drobyshevsky S.M., Trunin P.V., Kamenskih M.V. Analysis of the rules of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia in 1999-2007. // Institute of the Economy in transitional period. Working paper №127. – 2009. – 88p.