REGIONÁLNÍ POLITICKÉ PROCESY
Kilybaeva B.K., k.h.s, Ospanova A.N., Ph.D
L.N.Gumilyov Eurasian National University
Energy Security:
Prospects for India -Central Asia Cooperation
Energy Scenario in India
National Security today is a comprehensive term,
which includes several non-traditional security threats in its ambit. Energy
security has gained a special place in this broader concept of national
security. The European Commission defines energy security as «the ability to ensure that future essential energy needs can be met,
both by means of adequate domestic resources worked under economically
acceptable conditions or maintained as strategic reserves, and by calling upon
accessible and stable external sources supplemented where appropriate by
strategic stocks». The importance India now attaches to energy
security is reflected in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s remark in an interview
with the Financial Times in 2004 «energy security
is second only in our scheme of things to food security».
India is dependent on energy imports and bulk of
its imports is from West Asia. In 2009-10, crude oil production was 33.69
million tonne and our consumption was 160.77 million tonne. Gas production was
47.51 billion cubic metres and its consumption 46.49 billion cubic metres. The
oil and gas statistics given below indicate our growing hydrocarbon demands.
Table 1: India’s Oil and Gas
Figures, 2005-2010
|
Years |
Reserves |
Production |
Consumption |
|||
|
|
Crude Oil |
Natural Gas |
Crude Oil |
Natural Gas |
Crude Oil (in terms of
refinery crude thoroughput) |
Natural Gas |
|
2005-06 |
786 |
1101 |
32.19 |
32.202 |
130.11 |
31.325 |
|
2006-07 |
756 |
1075 |
33.988 |
31.747 |
146.55 |
30.791 |
|
2007-08 |
725 |
1055 |
34.117 |
32.417 |
156.1 |
31.478 |
|
2008-09 |
769 |
1050 |
33.51 |
32.849 |
160.77 |
31.770 |
|
2009-10* |
775 |
1074 |
33.69 |
47.51 |
160.03 |
46.49 |
Reliable and safe
source of supply of oil is essential for ensuring our energy security. The need
for diversifying our oil supply sources is increasing with the situation in
West Asia turning volatile. Central Asia’s oil reserves, though modest as
compared to West Asia, can be an important alternative source of supply for
India. The table below shows India’s dependence on crude oil imports. In
2009-2010, India imported 159.26 million tonnes. According to World Energy
Outlook, India’s dependence on oil imports will grow to 91.6% by the year 2020 [1].
Table 2: India’s Crude Oil Imports, 2005-2010
|
Years |
Quantity (in Million Tonne) |
Value (in Rs. Billion) |
|
2005-06 |
99.41 |
1717.02 |
|
2006-07 |
111.5 |
2190.29 |
|
2007-08 |
121.67 |
2726.99 |
|
2008-09 |
132.78 |
3482.88 |
|
2009-10 |
159.26 |
3753.78 |
The demand for
natural gas as a source of energy is growing in India. Domestic production of
natural gas is not sufficient to meet our increasing demands. Vast gas reserves
in CARs provide a viable alternative for India’s future needs. Gas takes
predominance over oil in India’s energy interests, given the huge gas reserves
in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
The paper looks
into the scope for ensuring India’s energy security within the framework of
India-Central Asia energy cooperation. It highlights the existing level of
cooperation in the sector and also the prevailing challenges that has impeded
the growth of greater engagement with the countries of the region. The paper
also looks into the scope for tapping the opportunities available to improve cooperation
with these countries [2].
India’s small step in the region’s energy sector
It was only very
recently India entered the region’s energy sector after gaining 25percent stake
in the Satpyev block in Kazakhstan. Agreement between India's ONGC Videsh Ltd.
and Kazakhstan's National Company "Kazmunaigas" for joint exploration
of the Satpayev block was signed during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit
to Kazakhstan in 2011. Another energy rich country in the region is Turkmenistan.
It has the largest gas reserves in the region. Cooperation in the hydrocarbon
sector features prominently in India-Turkmenistan bilateral negotiations.
Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari choice to visit Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan,
two energy rich countries in Central Asia in 2008 reflects India’ interest in
the rich hydrocarbon reserves of the region. Both countries held the first
Joint Working group on Hydrocarbon at Ashgabat in October 2006 [3]. India’s
participation in the country’s energy sector include- Profit Sharing Agreements
(PSA) in Caspian blocks, service contracts for onshore projects (PSA is not
allowed for onshore activities) and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India
pipeline (TAPI) [4]. The completion of the TAPI pipeline project, transporting
gas from Dauletabad field in Turkmenistan to India, if materialises would be a
game changer for the region. Interests from all the players are evident today.
However, among other issues, security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan and
Indo-Pak differences remain the major impediments.
Uzbekistan is
also rich in hydrocarbon reserves, especially in gas reserves, which India can
tap for its long-term natural gas requirements. During Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh’s visit to Uzbekistan in April 2006, seven agreements were signed, three
of which mentioned India’s role in Uzbekistan’s energy and mineral sector [5].
The May 2011 visit by President Karimov to India also resulted in several
agreements, which also included provision for cooperation in the energy sector.
ONGC Videsh Limited and Uzbekneftegaz, the National Company of Uzbekistan
signed a MOU on cooperation in hydrocarbon sector, which outlines collaboration
in oil and gas exploration and production activities, joint participation in oil
producing assets in Uzbekistan and in third countries, cooperation in basic and
applied research and development in the hydrocarbon sector and capacity
building for professionals and technicians working in the hydrocarbon sector.
There is ample
scope for cooperation between India and the Central Asian countries in the region’s
hydrocarbon sector. However, one of the major hurdles in developing stronger
relationship in the energy sector is the absence of direct transport linkages.
Several pipeline and land routes have been suggested time and again to
facilitate transportation of oil and gas from the region like
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline. Also
there are suggestions of building pipelines from Central Asia via China to
India. However, none have materialised till date, which has made it difficult
to deepen our engagement with the region.
Other Areas
Cooperation in
the hydrocarbon sector is one aspect of our engagement with the Central Asian
countries in the energy sector. Another potential area of cooperation is peaceful
use of nuclear energy, which has made made some progress. Kazakhstan with vast
uranium reserves has emerged as an important partner for India. The agreement
on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy during Manmohan Singh’s visit to Astana
in 2011 is a significant milestone in our relations. The agreement deals with
cooperation in «fuel
supply, nuclear medicine, use of radiation technologies for healthcare
including isotopes, reactor safety mechanisms, exchange of scientific &
research information, exploration and joint mining of uranium, design,
construction and operation of nuclear power plants etc». Back in 2009, during President Nazarbayev's
visit to India, the MOU for Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy was signed by the
two countries. Uzbekistan too has huge uranium reserves, another potential area
for cooperation between the two countries [6].
Another potential
area is the cooperation in hydel power sector. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are
rich in water resources. In future, collaborating with these two countries to
transmit electricity, produced from hydel power can be a possible way to
increase our economic cooperation. India could cooperate with these countries
by helping them to build small hydro power stations, which would be beneficial
for Central Asia and give India the necessary footprint in the region. The
region is also rich in rare earth materials, which could be tapped.
Road Ahead
Although today
there are greater emphasise to revive our linkages with the CARs, India’s
visibility in the region remains low.
Stepping up economic linkages is one of the major components of
deepening our ties with the CARs. Economically, given the abundance of
hydrocarbon reserves, energy would remain India’s prime interest. However, India,
as a late entrant in the region does not wide option today. The major
bottleneck is our lack of accessibility. In the given circumstances, one of the
possible areas where both sides benefit is by investing in modernizing the oil and gas sector, creation of
petro-chemical complexes and refineries. The CARs are looking for investments
in these areas to augment their economy and Indian participation would be
welcome here. Transmitting electricity
from Central Asia to India may not be immediately possible. At the moment,
India could invest in building small hydro power projects in Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan, which would benefit the local people and also help India earn
goodwill of the people of the region.
Today, several
countries are engaged in the region’s energy sector. India has always mentioned
that India is not in for any competition with any player. India wants to
develop close friendly ties with the CARs and not engage in competition with
any player in the region. Cooperating with other players, wherever possible is
what India is looking for.
Used
literature:
1. Basic Statistics
on Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2009-2010, Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas, Government of India, New Delhi (Economic Division), [Online web]
Accessed on 11 January 2012, URL: http://petroleum.nic.in/ng.htm.
2. Basic Statistics on Indian
Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2009-2010, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas,
Government of India, New Delhi (Economic Division), [Online web] Accessed on 11
January 2012, URL: http://petroleum.nic.in/ng.htm.
3. Embassy
of India in Turkmenistan, Accessed 2 December 2011, URL: http://www.indianembassy-tm.org/bilateral.html.
4. Embassy of India in Turkmenistan,
Accessed 2 December 2011, URL: http://www.indianembassy-tm.org/bilateral.html.
5. Ramakant Dwivedi, «An Appraisal of the Indian Prime
Minister's Visit to Uzbekistan»
28 April 2006, IDSA Comment, Accessed 10 July 2011, URL: http://www.idsa.in/idsastrategiccomments/AnAppraisaloftheIndianPrimeMinistersVisittoUzbekistan_RDwivedi_280405.
6.
Agreements signed during the State Visit of the President of Uzbekistan, Ministry of External Affairs,
Government of India, Accessed 10 December 2011, URL: www.mea.gov.in/mystart.php?id=500417641.