Медицинский университет Астана
Кафедра общественного здравоохранения №2
The
program Foresight is used in many
countries within the last twenty years for the purpose of development of plans
of strategic development of the countries, the separate sectoral directions and
scientific programs. The concept of Foresight of knowledge standard by the
world community, economy of knowledge gives the chance to use its methodology
in various fields of activity, including medical education. Research of
prospects of development with use of methods of Foresight is considered by many
not only technologically developed, but also developing countries as the
important tool for formation of national and corporate strategy and priorities,
identification of new opportunities and threats, mobilization of resources for
realization of the coordinated measures. President of our country N. A.
Nazarbayev notes that "Our strategic task - unity of numerous groups of
the population, a reasonable combination of the personal and public beginnings
that supplements consensus and hierarchical traditions of our society".
Thus,
in the report it defines that "Prosperity, safety and improvement of
welfare of all Kazakhstan citizens - here and continues keywords with which it
is necessary to characterize Kazakhstan which all of us want to construct"
"Certainly, all this is only future vision, its model, the ideal purpose,
dream". The UN in the Report in 2009 included Kazakhstan in category of
the countries with high level of human potential. N.A. Nazarbayev constantly
emphasizes and realizes the program of active investments into the future for the
sake of increase of competitiveness of the human capital. Therefore a striking
example is acceptance the decision on opening in 2010 in Astana to year New
International the University at which three new scientific centers will be
created, including the center of sciences about life in which joint development
with leading world scientific centers in the field of an organ transplantation,
artificial heart and easy, stem cells and longevity medicine will be conducted.
This confirmation of a big plan of our President on formation and development
of the intellectual nation. The global changes happening in the world, assume
justification and development of innovative technologies of anticipation of
global and regional events and the phenomena, new calls and risks to which
development of all education system including the medical is exposed.
Existing
indexes of measurement of development of the countries of the world cover
specific indicators loudspeakers necessary for an assessment occurring in
social and economic, political, ecological, innovative and sectoral fields of
activity. At the same time, in the world community there was recognized for
programming of development of the countries of the world use of methodology of
Foresight which allows to consider a set of factors in development of
alternative trajectories of formation of the future on the basis of the concept
of economy of knowledge. According to many authors, the concept of
self-organizing, being trained and adaptive systems turns into the dominating concept
of the future. This new feature of evolution demands revision of mechanisms of
regulation of all fields of activity, including medical education. Events of
the last years, it is the global economic crisis which has shaken the whole
world, it is the climatic crisis which has captured all continents, these are
the regional ecological and political crises influencing stability around the
world, as well as these are old problems of development of a civilization:
poverty of many countries of the world, against wealth of others; hunger in
some countries of the world and growth of diseases of a civilization in the
rich countries of the world; unreasonable operation of the nature and
considerable decrease in natural stocks. These and other arising calls of problems
of development of a civilization predetermine development of such comprehensive
institutional tools which could solve available and again arising problems at
the highest political level. Available experience of application of methodology
of Foresight in the Republic of
Kazakhstan, namely the statement and implementation of the program Kazakhstan –
2030, yielded the positive results, long political, economic, social and
interfaith stability in the country, growth of economic indicators of development,
political recognition by the world community of the young sovereign state. The
analysis of application of methodology Foresight in many countries of the world
for development of programs of development of this or that state, their
sectoral programs on long-term prospect allows to estimate their success in a
certain measure. Therefore the main conclusion of the analysis of development
of Foresight is need of identification and the accounting of interference of
interaction of economy, social and cultural aspects of development in
scientifically - technical area. The available intellectual potential of our
independent state allows not only to prove and prove reality of offered new
model of medical education, its sustainable development, but also to define possibility
of a trajectory of development in the future.
Health
of the individual, group of people and the population as a whole represents
difficult social system, formation and which development is defined by a set of
factors. The concept health is many-sided, it to belong and to human relations
and the states, it estimates a state of environment and wellbeing of the
countries. Therefore the indicator of expected life expectancy which in the
integrated form reflects health of this or that state enters into measurement
socially – economic wellbeing of the states. The public health formed depending
on a set of factors, has to represent, as firm universal concepts of value,
usefulness and cost health of the person, as main moral and spiritual value of
development of the present. At many people among moral values health is high on
the list and it isn't casual. Because health is the general criterion of
development of any state, its political, technological, intellectual, economic,
social and mentally wellbeing. Public health as difficult multiple-factor
socially – economic event represents historically created system with the
evolution, features of development. Foresight gives the chance to consider a
trajectory of development of new model of medical education depending on the
corresponding development of public health, on new to estimate a role and a
place of public health care in a sustainable development of the civilization,
each state, groups of the population and the individual. Application of
methodology of Foresight to studying of society of health gives the chance to
establish the following basic principles of development of this model:
application of fundamental laws of development of the Nature, Society and
Person; health definition as the supreme value and measure of development of a
civilization; health assessment as the generalized result of efficiency of
activity of human community; health definition as basis and process of
measurement of a sustainable development of society; health recognition as potential
of progress of mankind; ensuring continuous monitoring and management of risk
factors of formation of society of health.
Realization
of these principles demands justification and development of theoretical and
methodological approaches and considerable organizational and political
efforts. At the same time, experience of use of methodology of Foresight of
knowledge on the one hand simplifies our task. At the same time, formation and
development of a new paradigm, namely Foresight of health society, are assumed
by wide use of available technologies, development of innovative
organizational, administrative, information technologies on achievement of
comprehensive level of acceptable society of health.
We
gave the following definition to Foresight of the health, being which is
special way of thinking about the civilization future for identification of
opportunities and threats which can arise in the next years and decades and
represents:
-
accumulation of knowledge and information on a systematic basis, on research of
long-term prospects of development of science about society health, with
development of policy, plans and strategy;
-
involvement methodologically, organizationally also is information all subjects
of policy for the purpose of decision-making and mobilization of joint efforts
for realization of the general actions.
References:
1. Klein S.J. Research is not a Liner Process, Research Management, Vol.
28, 1985
2. Masini Eleonora. Why Futures Studies? Grey Seal, London, 1993
3. Loye David. The knowable Future: a psychology of forecasting and
prophecy. John Wiley & Sons, N.Y. 1978
4. Linstone Harold and Turoff Murray. Introduction in the Delphi Method:
Techniques and Applications. Addison – Wesley Publishing Company, London, 1975
5. Amara R. Some Methods of Future Research. Institute for the Future,
Menlo park, 1975
6. Webler T., Levine D., Rakel H., Renn O. A Novel Approach to Reducing
Uncertainty: The Group Delphi // Technological Foresight ad Social Change, Vol.
39, 191.