Ñòîëÿðîâà Î.
Ì.
Äîíåöêèé
íàöèîíàëüíûé óíèâåðñèòåò ýêîíîìèêè è òîðãîâëè
èìåíè Ìèõàèëà Òóãàí-Áàðàíîâñêîãî
United Kingdom of Great Britain
and Northern Ireland
facing world economic-financial
crisis: problems and forecast.
Nowadays world economy is mired in the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression, what first appeared as a sub-prime
mortgage sloup in the United States housing market during the summer of 2007
began widening during 2008 into deeper fissures across the global financial
landscape and ended with the collapse of major banking institutions,
precipitous falls on stock markets across the world and a credit freeze [1].
Humanity
faces
the exponential year time unique in history,
when a confluence of overlapping and mutually reinforcing factors is propelling
the world into unknown economic and environmental territory at an exponentially
accelerating rate. All eyes today are fixed on the sudden and violent impacts
of the financial and banking crisis on the global economy. In the background,
however, a rapidly rising global population is combining with quickening
development and resource use, surging energy demand and associated atmospheric
emissions. [2,3,4]
The current economic
situation in world society is the result of an The current financial
crisis is the result of an improperly-regulated banking and financial sector
where the drive for corporate profits and personal wealth created a culture of
risk-taking on an unprecedented scale. By “engineering” new debt-based
financial products, creating the illusion of value by packaging up high-risk
assets (such as mortgages on over-valued properties to people who could not
afford them) and presenting them to the market as high-value low-risk
securities, profits soared.
The
most advanced countries, including here United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland now are triggered a
full-fledged economic crisis in recession and the outlook for emerging and
other developing economies deteriorating
rapidly, including those with a recent history of strong economic performance
and interdependance.
Thus the actuality of the investigating
question becomes obvious, because of the revealing of the huge results of world
crisis on the economy development of different countries, including as
developed ones and also developing states. The interdependence of the world
countries acquire more damageable character and the population of
both types needs to be protected from consequences and have all necessary
conditions of living. That is why the
solving of the mutual problem of the extension of the economic structural
and financial negative changes
needs to be decided firstly on the
level of developed states for further
elaboration of the
restoration. So, for instance it
will be considered the current situation in modern contemporary situation in
economy in whole of Great Britain and view on the future possible development
of resisting the global recession [5].
The UK is a developed
country, with the fifth (nominal GDP) or sixth (PPP) largest economy in the world. It was the world's
first industrialized country and the world's foremost power during the
19th and early 20th centuries. The UK nevertheless remains a major power
with strong economic, cultural, military and political influence worldwide. It
is a nuclear power and has the
second or third highest defense spending in the
world [6].
Thus the part
and the role of United Kingdom in the world trade every year acquires more
stable tendencies and firm positions. It’s influence on the whole market is
escalating and depends in some spheres greatly on it’s own structure of
economics.
In
contemporarity this is happening when one considers that the
United Kingdom was the birthplace of the modern international financial system
and also of the industrial revolution that was so much a part of the country's
rise to greatness.
Even after World War II, when the United States replaced
Britain as the world's major power center, the British pound was the alternate
reserve currency, used in international trade. The sterling era continued for
25 years. These were countries, mostly former British colonies that continued
to trade in British pounds rather than U.S. dollars, banking their assets with
the Bank of England.
But then Britain changed course, pursuing closer ties
with continental Europe at the expense of traditional ties with the nations of
the Commonwealth. It was a total reversal in British foreign policy. Ever since
the Reformation over 400 years earlier during the time of Henry VIII, Britain's
policy had been to turn its back on Europe and concentrate on building trade
and security ties with its colonies and former colonies around the world. Only
when the balance of power in Europe was threatened did the country get involved
in its own backyard, against despots like Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm II and
Hitler.
Following its entry into what is now the European
Union, British manufacturing nose-dived, with the country increasingly reliant
on its banking sector and North Sea oil. Now GB have come home to hardly not
to the start point. [4]
By
today’s view it’s was announced that the country is officially lives through
recession. (Jan 23, 2009). This follows other countries who have announced
recessions recently including France, Germany, Japan, America and China.
The
credit crunch has led to many industries in the UK cutting back services,
employment and even pay.
The
UK is currently having its worst economic growth for nearly 30 years, which
started with the banks and grew into the recession.
Banks
have been unwilling or unable to lend money to each other after a series of
investments that went bad. These include the sub-prime loans to population who
had less than good credit ratings. The banking industry having such a lack in
confidence has effected the stock markets all over the world and has had a
snowball effect on growth in the UK economy.
The
level of unemployment has reached the higher level, more than it was expected. This
is all made worse by the very fact that the cost of living is getting much
higher in the UK. Household utility bills such as ones for standard services have all seen very sharp increases over
recent months making it much harder for population to afford to pay off loans, mortgages and even buy food.
Thus, overviewing
the already having consequences of the abatement it can drown up the possible
prediction of the further economic development of the state and thus the
further influence of it on the whole world economics. It can be out of the
already revealed of the main problems excisting here and their tendencies.
Beginning
from the most damaged branche, which is presented by manufacturing., closely watched survey of it’s conditions
offered that looking at purchasing
managers’ index, which was a
higher-than-expected 39.1 in March, the best since last October. Since any
level below 50 indicates contraction, this suggested that manufacturing was
still doing badly—but less terribly than before. [7]
More
generally across the economy, a fall in inventories has been exacerbating the
recession as firms meet demand from stocks rather than new production. Once
they can no longer do this, the downturn will be less severe. Furthermore,
banks plan to lend more freely in the next three months.
The
evidence suggests that GDP has experienced another sharp contraction in the
first quarter of this year. Exports have been tumbling along with the collapse
in world trade. Until recently one bright spot had been upbeat official figures
for retail sales. But these fell by 1.9% in February, bringing them closer to
glummer private-sector estimates. Shoppers continued to shun the high street in
March, according to the “FootFall” index compiled by Experian, a
consumer-research firm.
One
reason for this negative predictions is that here
expects consumer spending to fall by 2.2% this year and by 0.4% in 2010.
That would be consistent with what happened late last year, as greater saving trumped
the Bank of England’s big cuts in interest rates. Helped by lower mortgage
costs, households’ disposable income rose sharply in the final quarter of 2008.
Despite this boost, consumer spending fell by 1% as the saving ratio rose from
1.7% of disposable income in the third quarter to 4.8% in the fourth.
Another
reason is that even more pessimistic
about the prospects for Britain’s big trading partners, which will limit the
boost from net trade owing to a more competitive pound. It expects the euro area
to contract by 4.1% in 2009 and 0.3% in 2010, and American GDP to slide by 4%
this year and stagnate in 2010. As the G20 leaders know only too well, no
economy is an island in today’s intertwined world.
The
government's response to the financial crisis has huge policy implications for
years to come, in terms of the state's mounting financial commitments and its
expanding role in the economy. Further state intervention is expected [8].
Despite
huge state-backed financial support, the UK banking sector remains in a
precarious state. Powerful vested interests and political considerations mean
insolvency concerns and restructuring issues are unlikely to be fully
addressed.
Real
GDP is forecast to contract by 3.8% in 2009 and by 1.1% in 2010 by worldwide known
sources seems too hopeful for today’s
statement, recovery in bank lending until at least 2011-12, following a
prolonged period of private-sector balance-sheet adjustment, because already
existing changes shows much serious
consequences of following
activity.
Thus,
the forecast has not so positive tendency, and demands allowance for the whole
interstate activization acts. To stave off the risk of a deepening of global
recession, here necessary the implementation of massive internationally
coordinated stimulus packages that are coherent and mutually reinforcing and
aligned with sustainable developed goals.
These should be effected in addition to the liquidity and
recapitalization measures already undertaken by countriesin response to the
economic crisis. And due to this the whole world arena won’t be responses with
additional tasks for recovering of economies of interdependent states for warning more constructural negative
tendencies, as a result in developed
countries too.
Literature
1.
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äàííûå (99428 áàéò). 2008. - Ðåæèì äîñòóïà: <http://www.un.org>
2.
US Committee
on Environment and Natural Resources and the US National Science and Technology
Council, 2008. Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change.
[Ýëåêòðîííûé ðåñóðñ] – Ýëåêòðîííî òåêñòîâûå äàííûå (56778 áàéò). 2008. -
Ðåæèì äîñòóïà: <http://www.
wnponline.org>
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Worldwatch
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(99458 áàéò). 2008. - Ðåæèì äîñòóïà: <http://www.
wnponline.org>
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Panel on Economic Change
(IPCC), 2007. Fourth Assessment Report. The Economic Science Basis. Cambridge University Press. [Ýëåêòðîííûé
ðåñóðñ] – Ýëåêòðîííî òåêñòîâûå äàííûå (121878 áàéò). 2008. - Ðåæèì äîñòóïà:
<http://www. cambun.org>
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Áåðåçíàÿ
Í.À. Âåëèêîáðèòàíèÿ Ìåæäóíàðîäíûå îòíîøåíèÿ [Òåêñò] – Ì., 2004. - 157ñ. - ISBN:
5-8071-00879.
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