Экономические науки/15.Государственное регулирование экономики

Kh.Yertay student 3 courses

Scientific leader: d.p.n., professor N.A.Minzhanov

Karaganda economic university of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Kazakhstan

Danger of the influence of the european crisis on Kazakhstan

The European financial institutes were shown one of the main sources, financed our economy before July 2007. With begin 2004 indebtedness of our banks before west increased with 3,5 mlrd. milked. USA before 46 mlrd. milked. USA in 2007г. Big part of this amount was it is directed in economy Kazakhstan. Whereupon, since moment begin crisis in our country, west banks have stopped financing and have called in earlier issued credit. To persisting moment, big part credit, got from european banks, or is discharged, or is written off. On 2011 indebtedness of our banks before west dropped to 16 mlrd. milked.USA[1]. Thereafter position nearly did not change. So neither improvements, nor deteriorations with this sides is not expected.

Except this, european banks, being present at the market Kazakhstan, can collect the money kazakh depositor, but then direct these money in their own maternal banks in Europe. For instance, such bank as ATF Bank, pertaining to europetion, can attract the money in Kazakhstan, but then send their maternal bank in Europe, feelling lack of the facilities. But specifically outlive on this cause does not cost(stand). The Percent rate, on which european banks attract the money in Kazakhstan and percent rate, on which they will place these money in Europe, unbeneficial for europetion.

In change from bank sector of our economy, the raw materials sector on the contrary enlarged its indebtedness before west financial institute. This indebtedness increased with 38 mlrd. milked. USA in 2007 before 93 mlrd. milked. USA in 2010 or on 55 mlrd. milked. USA. Moreover the most growing there was noted on oil sector. For instance if for the same gap of time with 2007 on 2010 gg., indebtedness Kazahmysa increased only on 1,6 mlrd. milked. USA, Eurasian group only on 700 mln. milked. USA, KTZH only on 1 mlrd. milked. USA, that indebtedness Kazmunaygaza increased on 10 mlrd. milked. USA Growing to rest indebtedness from said amount in 55 mlrd. milked. USA there was noted on oil companies Kazakhstan, controlled by foreign funds. Whereas, west companies, checking our oil, necessary reduction to dependencies from energy deliveries from Russia, that hardly we shall feel the essential deterioration of the financing the oil sector. The Chinese companies, checking our oil, too necessary reduction to dependencies from deliveries of the oils on vulnerable for Kitaya sea route. So chinese financing the raw materials sector Kazakhstan will only grow.Now we shall go to accomodation of our money in european financial sector. Exactly, this sphere presents the most danger for our economy.

The Danger for us present the bankruptcy of the european banks, where is kept their own money people Kazakhstan and kazakh companies. This situation on principle domino can bring about bankruptcy ensemble large companies in our country already. We shall Explain, as will occur the development an event in this situations. Because of the general fall of the sale to european companies and consumers, got financing in european banks, will not be able to pay the credits.

This will bring about loss of the confidence on financial market of the Europe. All companies and banks of the Europe begin suspect each other in before bankrupt condition. The Arisen suspicion to banks will force the population and companies to remove their own bankrolls from more weak banks. The Banks, which will not be able to return the money its client, will become the bankrupt. The Panic will increase, having enlarged amount taken out from banks of the facilities that will bring about bankruptcy else big amount small and average banks. First or last, begun panic and wave of the conclusion of the bankrolls, but then following for this bankruptcy, will cover the most largest banks of the Europe. Consequently, people Kazakhstan and kazakh companies, which keeps the count in banks of the Europe, will lose their own money in the event of ravaging of these banks. Such loss of the money by our companies will bring about reduction of their expenses in economy Kazakhstan: reduction of the expenseses on different current and heavy repair, reduction construction new object and etc[2].

Consequently, this, in turn, will bring about reduction of the total incom of the population Kazakhstan.

Such danger is cut in buying the european securities by our banks, companies and National fund Kazakhstan. On principle "domino", described above, - a bankruptcy of the european companies or state, where is embedded money of the National fund and kazakh companies, will bring about cascade bankruptcy the most largest companies and banks Kazakhstan, as well as to loss of the money of the National fund[3].

For example of the realities of this event possible to bring the Sovereign fund to Norway - an analogue of our National fund. In 2008г. because of crisis and falls world stock market Fund to Norway have lost beside 150 mlrd. milked. USA. In the first-quarters 2011 because of promissory crisis in Europe this fund has lost 50 mlrd. milked. USA. For comparison, the total volume of the facilities Nacionalinogo fonda Kazakhstan forms whole 43 mlrd. milked. USA USA[4]. Moreover, we do not know in securities what companies and what state are embedded money of our fund. So, coming from aforesaid, - one of the reasons of the reception 10 mlrd. milked. USA on lend beside Kitaya can be an actual absence of the facilities in our National fund.

On this we finish our talk about reason of the european crisis and his(its) influences upon our country. What possible do the findings in current whole of aforesaid? But findings following:

The European crisis can powerfully tell on Kazakhstan in the event of bankruptcy financial institute, companies and state of the Europe, where is embedded money of our companies and National fund. Herewith depending on developments event, we lose completely or a part of National fund. Also we figure witness bankruptcy of the kazakh banks and companies, lost their own money in european crisis.

Our country will powerfully feel on itself european crisis and in situations, when in Europe begin long-lasting mass disturbances, caused by fall level of living and mass unemployment. These begun disturbances is labored or will suspend the export to our oils that, in turn ,will bring about fall our incom, but such fall incom will become the reason of the reduction of the living standard of our population[5].

And the first and the second event will cause to fall in prices on raw materials goods, including on our oil, - so us it is necessary to build such economy, which in greater measure will depend on our home market, from our own effort, rather then from favour of the other countries.

The List of the sources and literature:

1. Danajol.yvision.kz

2. Busygin A.V. Enterprise.M.,YUNITI.

3. Gorfinkeli E.V. The Bases enterprise.M., Herald.

4. www.wikipedia.org

5. Lapusta V.L. European krizis., Infra, 2011.