Экология /6. Экологический мониторинг

Жамбаева А.К., Абдрахманова А.Б.

Костанайский государственный университет им. А. Байтурсынова, Казахстан

Mathematical model and economic-ecological system

Economic-ecological system (EES) is an economic system considered jointly with the ecosystem of a region. The EES notion includes two-way interactions between economics and environment (ecosystem) and supposes presence of a human control in the system.

Modeling provides a preliminary explanation and prediction of EES behavior and adds new theoretical information about the nature, since there is always a gap between real influence on the nature and theoretical understanding of that influence. Therefore, all possible variants of EES control should be modeled for the purpose of decreasing undesirable ecological consequences.

Modeling ought to begin at an earlier stage of study, so far as the analysis of numerical experiments suggests what kind of additional information is needed and what should be changed to achieve a better accordance with a real-life picture. A mathematical model should not be a copy of the real world, it is always a simplification which assists in revealing a principal process which takes place in reality.

In a decision-making process we have always used models because we have not possessed absolute knowledge of reality. Ideal models of the future first emerge in the human brain (mental models). Mathematical modeling methods are supplemented with mental modeling, and what is important is that a mathematical model cannot be better than a mental one on the basis of which it is created. Formal models are secondary with respect to the mental models but cannot substitute them.

let's consider economic environmental control components.

Any control system includes three basic functional components: measuring (monitoring), modeling and controlling components. These three parts are inseparably linked and can not work without each other.

EES modeling and controlling tools become senseless without a developed measuring part. Environmental monitoring is the first and probably the most expensive part of the EES control. In the literature dedicated to economic-ecological control, principal attention is given to elaboration of monitoring systems.

Environmental monitoring is a multipurpose information system for observation of the biosphere, assessment and forecast of its state, evaluation of human influence on the environment, and bringing to light the factors and sources of such influence. It includes three levels: bioecological monitoring (observation of environmental state from the viewpoint of its influence on man), geoecological monitoring (observation of ecosystem's evolution), and monitoring of biosphere (observation and forecast of the change in the biosphere on the whole).

The system of monitoring can cover local regions (local monitoring) or whole countries (national monitoring). The concept of global monitoring (for the whole globe) is also meaningful.

The concept of monitoring implies observation and prediction functions rather than decision-making. A more general concept is a decision-support (or control) system. It implies a complex of hardware, software, mathematical, information and organizational means intended for efficient management of an economic-environmental system under control.

On the other hand, the absence of the modeling component turns an EES control system into a kind of information system. It is necessary to emphasize the importance of mathematical modeling in a broad sense as a basis of EES control decision-support.

Modeling of EES control has two aspects:

- modeling of current state and forecast of ecosystem functioning,

- modeling of control decisions themselves.

These problems are solved by means of various theoretical and mathematical methods.

Mathematical modeling of large-scale systems like economic-ecological systems is a complicated scientific and technical process.

let's consider mathematical models for modeling ees.

At present, two tendencies can be pointed out in applied mathematical modeling:

− The first tendency is to construct as simple models as possible and to attach them to initial data without a deep insight into the process investigated. Thus, linear equations have been used more and more widely. Such approach is rather popular in applied areas of modeling and gives good results in many cases.

− The second tendency consists of the elaboration of mathematical models that reflect an internal structure of the systems under study in a complete manner, taking into account some delicate features. It leads, as a rule, to rather complicated mathematical problems.

Such models are not always convenient for use in practice. Nevertheless, their elaboration reflects an internal logic of scientific development: improvement of both pure and applied mathematics would be impossible if new models were not created.

Real life often advances research of substantially new features of systems. In doing so, it is necessary either to develop new mathematical models or to modify considerably known models (often, by using a new mathematical apparatus).

References

1. Popović, Ž., "Basic mathematical models in economic-ecological control", Economics and Organization Vol. 5, No 3, University of Niš, Serbia. -2008, pp. 251 - 262

2. Gorelov, A., "Ecology - Science - Modeling", Nauka Press, Moscow, 1985.