Academic essay
Middle East after Arab Spring
The wave of freedom and democracy that washed
over much of the world in the 1980s and 1990s was bound to blow-out to the Arab
world in time. In 2011, it finally did. The messy, sometimes hazardous results
of the short term should give way to the long-term reimbursements that human
liberty usually brings.
Escalation of the conflict of interests in
the Middle East among key regional actors (Turkey, Iran) and extra-regional
actors in world politics (the U.S. / NATO, EU). Strengthening inter-clan
fighting in parallel with the constant breakdown of talks on the Middle East
settlement creates conditions for the emergence of a full-scale war in the
region. In this regard, it is important to note that, according to
international experts, the first nuclear weapons, Iran will get at the end of
this year, and the international community will no longer be able to ignore the
new nuclear power in dealing with regional and global security.
Further aggravation of inter-clan fighting
for power in the Middle East will lead to a gain in the short-term military
presence in the U.S. and Washington's NATO Allies - France and Germany in the
area for so-called "stabilization" in the states outlined space.
New modes under diplomatic, military,
economic and political pressure from the U.S. / NATO considering risk that
increases the stability of the whole will have to agree to their location in
areas of military bases in the U.S. or NATO. This development corresponds to
U.S. foreign policy strategy, which is one of the key objectives set itself the
conquest of the Greater Middle East.
Subsequently, two issues that will shape the
future development of the constructive process of implementation of a regional
/ global security - is an armed invasion and the right of self-defense and
blocks.
Moreover, the enlargements of the
interpretation of Article 51 of the Charter right to permanently cemented by
key players in the world outside of their own geo-political zones of
responsibility and justify the invasion of any area. Based on the traditional
understanding of the right to self-defense, then granting wider powers in the
field of conflict resolution regional organizations will consider the system of
regional collective security as a means to respond to aggression, leaving the
possibility of using this right outside the region. However, this
interpretation does not correspond to modern geopolitical realities and
interests of the leading actors.
It will be increased political role of Islam.
The coming to power pro-Islam regimes in the name of building a democratic
social and political order in the Middle East and with the support of the West
led to the emergence of such phenomena as the debate around the issue of
strengthening the political dimension of Islam. This is evidenced by recent and
increasing antagonism between pro-Islam regimes have come to power after the
"revolution" and wing radical Islamists who are hostile to the
modernization of the political ideas of the Western model, and by the
secularist (secular) Muslim Organizations (Tunisia, Syria, Egypt).
Islam is used by all three of the political
process, not only as a religion that can forge consolidating function, but also
as a mechanism for achieving the goals of public policy. The resulting
"revolutionary" experience of countries in the region demonstrated
the flexibility of Islamic political doctrine, able to respond to internal and
external challenges.
The threat of terrorism. Increasingly,
representatives of opposition forces resorted to organizing the attacks, the
number of which increases with the stability / instability of the political
situation in the countries (Egypt, Syria). The more turbulent situation in the
country, the more opposition groups choose tactics and strategy of terror.
On
the other hand, due to events in the Middle East more active activities of
terrorist organizations in Western Europe. In this connection it should be
noted that it is in the region of Western Europe has the largest terrorist
organizations of various kinds - 312, compared with the Middle East - 283
(excluding ).
"Arab Spring" on the one hand and
the political crisis and economic difficulties in Western Europe on the other
preconditions for active opposition nationalist forces (a prime example is
Greece, which is also the largest terrorist organization ranked first in Europe
- 90, compared with Belgium - 7), likely that in the short term we will see an
increase in attacks by nationalist organizations that use attack as the only
right way for violent psychological pressure on society to compel the
authorities to certain actions (administrative reform to even greater autonomy
of the regions implement more effective social and economic reforms that may
only exit the Eurozone, etc.).
Increase the flow of refugees from the Middle
East, characterized by a tendency to further instability may worsen economic,
demographic and political situation not only in the neighboring regions. Thus,
significantly increased flow of refugees to Western Europe (especially in
Italy, Greece).
Today, the EU is no common vision problems of
employment and, in particular, readmission (return) migrants from Africa and
the Middle East (Italy inquiries about the submission of the Italian Government
financial assistance from the EU on issues of deportation and were not satisfied
Brussels) . Moreover, there is a split among the countries of Old Europe.
The only breakthrough in this regard was the
adoption of a new European program "Partnership for democracy and shared
prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean" from 08.03.11, which provides
support for political reforms and financial assistance to Arab countries that
have embarked on systemic transformation and relief in 'ride to Europe for
students, scholars and business people from Middle Eastern countries, provided
Arab governments strengthen cooperation with the EU in controlling illegal
immigration.
Europe today says crisis “doctrine of
multiculturalism”, the main reason - the reluctance of workers to integrate
into the culture and civilization of Europe area.
International political instability in the
Middle East and region will led further
to higher prices for energy raw. Expected to increase in the prices of energy
raw materials from 2010 to 2035 by about 1/3.
Expert opinion states that in the spring of 2012 oil prices exceed U.S.
$ 175-200 per barrel due to the threat of open armed conflict between Israel
and Iran. In addition, increased political instability in Libya, Yemen and
Syria, leading to failure of energy raw supplies from these countries.
Inventories of crude oil in Europe is rapidly decreasing.
However, the European community of caution
about such statements Washington, knowing that Iran is the third largest oil
exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia in the world. Tehran controls Strait of
Hormuz through which transported per day up 15.5 million barrels of oil.
In
the case of attacks by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities Tehran automatically
blocks Strait. It is in this situation, the price of oil could rise to $ 200
per barrel.
Conclusions.
Future developments in the Middle East will
depend not only on the ability of the region to stabilize the political
situation, but also on further redistribution of spheres of geopolitical
influence most interested in the resources of the region of actors in international
relations. The emergence on the political scene a large number of opposition
forces, nationalist shows a further deterioration in the political situation in
the region, probably worsening inter-clan struggle for power and possible loss
of state control over the export of raw materials, which will inevitably lead
to repeated military intervention of the West in order to stabilize the
situation and receiving total control over oil in the area in the Middle East.
However, in this situation, the U.S. and
Western Europe will have to reckon with renewed Middle Eastern policies of
Russia and China and the interests of the military-strategic tandem as Turkey,
Iran. Efficient operations situational military-strategic alliance between
Turkey and Iran in the long term can lead to the creation of a new regional
center of attraction, open to other Muslim countries.
Thus all attempts of the West to support
further dialogue with pro-Western regimes will be negated because the Western
model of modernization in the Arab world is almost impossible, as evidenced by
the situation in Iraq.
Transformation that began in the region have long-lasting and can lead to fundamental changes in the political landscape of individual countries and in the Middle Eastern system of regional relations in general. This requires maintaining balanced position on conflicts
and disputes between the regional centers of power, as well as regionally and extra-regional actors. The
basis of this policy on the
Middle East must be dynamic and pragmatism that would give the flexibility to respond to unexpected changes in the balance of power.
Literature:
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Charter of the United
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Khanfar Wadah. Those who
support democracy must welcome the rise of political Islam//guardian.co.uk,
Sunday 27 November 2011 19.30 GMT: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/27/islamist-arab-spring-west-fears
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European Commission/High
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Turkey, Iran must form
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