Экономические науки/1. Банки и банковская система
Master of 1 course
of the Institute of World Economy and Finance
Bokova Natalia
Volgograd State University, Russia
CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Over the past few
years, the economy of our country to develop positive rate, however, this trend
was interrupted imposed sanctions against Russia. The application of
restrictive measures have caused an unfavorable macroeconomic situation, which
completely changed the expected predictions about the development of the
Russian economy.
According
to the Federal Statistics Service of Russia's economic growth during the study
period (2010-2015) time has a negative trend. In 2014, economic growth was only
0.6%, which is almost 1.7 times less than in 2010. Many economists predicted
that economic growth in 2015 will increase, however, extended sanctions and
unpreparedness of our economy to them We did not allow this to become a real
forecast. At the beginning of 2015 the recession began observed recession has
already planned area of 5-6% by the end of this year. This recessive
state of the economy has led to the deterioration of the situation in the
social sphere: the growth of unemployment, inflation. Also worth noting is that
in the field of credit decline of the economy has led to an increase in credit
and the key rate, which subsequently led to a decrease in business activity at
all levels of the business.
Consider
the main reasons for the stagnation of the Russian economy:
-
The main impetus to the downturn of our economy were imposed sanctions. It was
with the introduction of multiple limited trade links with the EU and the USA.
The
main trade partner of Russia in 2014 was the EU, which accounted for 47% of
imports and 62% of Russian exports. However, with the introduction of sanctions
foreign trade turnover with EU countries decreased in 2015 by 7.3%, while
exports decreased by 6% and imports by 10.1%. Currently the leading partners in
the EU are the Netherlands (turnover decreased by 2.7%), Germany (turnover
decreased by 6.7%) and Italy (turnover decreased by 8.8%). It is worth noting
that due to the termination of trade relations with some Western countries,
Russia began to strengthen existing market positions in Asia, Africa and South
America. First of all, strengthening ties with the APEC countries, as evidenced
by the growth of trade turnover by almost 3%, export - by 9.6%. However,
imports, on the other hand, decreased by 3.1%, due to the rise in price of
imported goods due to the weakening of the ruble.
-
Is also very important problem of the Russian economy is its dependence on oil
and gas exports. This is a serious drawback, which leads to a strong
relationship Russian federal budget revenues from oil and gas and,
consequently, the demand for these energy sources in the world market and the
price of them. The share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget amounted
to 52.5% in 2014, which is almost 5.8 times more than in 2000 - 9%. The share
of GDP in the same period increased steadily over the period 2000-2007, an
average of 1.6% per year. Then, for the period 2007-2014, the share of oil and
gas revenues in the GDP had a mixed trend. The average value of this indicator
in GDP over this period was 9.7%. It is worth noting that becoming cheaper oil
prices and the strengthening dollar had a strong negative impact on the economy
of our country.
-
Important problem of the Russian economy is the outflow of foreign investment.
The volume of foreign investments in Russia for the period 2009-2015, the trend
is negative, in accordance with Figure 4. In 2014, foreign direct investment in
Russia fell by 70%, to $ 19 billion. Dollars. The reasons for such a sharp
decline in investor interest country study authors called the sanctions against
Russia, as well as negative investment growth prospects became a significant
amount of this indicator reached Russia in 2013. Then the country was on this
indicator in third place in the world, behind only the US and China. At the end
of 2013 $ 79 billion was invested in Russia.
In
conclusion, it should be noted that in addition to the main causes of
stagnation in the Russian economy, discussed in this article, there are many
other important issues. Such as high inflation, low productivity and high-tech
sector, the weak development of the banking system and others. Economy. Another
reason for the sharp drop in the volume of foreign direct Russia to date
entered into a recession, which must be overcome with minimal losses. The
imposition of sanctions greatly worsened the economic situation of our country.
For further development of Russia it is necessary to hold a tough economic
policy aimed at the intensification of many industries, the achievement of a
significant amount of foreign investments, the reorientation of the expenditure
side of the budget.
Примечание
Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РГНФ и
Администрации Волгоградской области в рамках научно-исследовательского проекта
№ 16-12-34020 «Формирование и регулирование рынка трудовых ресурсов
Волгоградской области в условиях функционирования Евразийского экономического
союза»
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