Ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå íàóêè/8.Ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèå ìåòîäû â ýêîíîìèêå.

Nurpeissova Zh.S.

A.Baitursynov Kostanai State University, Kazakhstan

Prediction of Altman's method

In the economic relations often there are moments when owing to certain reasons some subjects of economic activity appear incapable to pay off according to the obligations.  The special institute of insolvency (bankruptcy) of unprofitably working enterprises which along with a freedom of enterprise, a private property is one of necessary elements of any normally functioning market economy is engaged in regulation of such situations.

There are two main approaches to a bankruptcy prediction.  The first is based on financial data and includes operating in some coefficients.  The second is based on data on the bankrupt enterprises and their comparison with the relevant data of the studied enterprise.

The most known multiple-factor models of forecasting of insolvency of the organization are:  Altman's model; Taffler’s Model; Fox Model; Model of Chester; Saifullin and Kadykov's five-factorial model; Four-factorial model of Irkutsk GEA.

From methods of forecasting of bankruptcy big distribution was gained by Altman's model (an index of solvency of Altman, Altman's Z-account). This index was constructed by means of the device of the multiplicative discriminant analysis and has an appearance:

        Z = 1,2* õ1+ 1,4 *õ2 + 3,3 *õ3+ 0,6 *õ4 + 0,999*õ5                               (1)

In Altman's formula five variables are used:

X1 – the relation of working capital to the sum of assets of corporation;

X2 – the relation of the unallotted income to the sum of assets;

X3 – the relation of the operating income (to a deduction of percent and taxes) to the sum of assets;

X4 – the relation of own capital to total amount of assets;

X5 – the relation of an amount of sale to the sum of assets.

The multiplicative discriminant analysis also has an appearance:

 

Table 1 - Scale of probability of bankruptcy

Z-accounts value

Probability of bankruptcy

less than 1,8

the very high

from 1,81 to 2,7

the high

from 2,71 to 2,99

average

from 3,0

the low

 

For forecasting of bankruptcy of the organization we will use Abyroy 7 LLP data. We will carry out calculation of probability of bankruptcy, calculations it is representable in table 2.

 

Table 2 - Calculation of probability of bankruptcy of Abyroy 7 LLP

Koef-t

Calculation

Value on

Multiplier

Work

(ãð. 3 x ãð. 4)

 

 

22010

22011

22012

 

22010

22011

22012

1

2

3

4

5

K1

Relation of working capital to the size of all assets

00,43

00,38

00,38

1,2

00,52

00,46

00,46

K2

The relation of retained earnings and funds of special appointment to the size of all assets

00,07

00,12

00,13

1,4

00,10

00,17

00,18

K3

Relation Finn. result from sales to the size of all assets

00,11

00,14

00,06

3,3

00,36

00,46

00,21

K4

Relation of own capital to the loan

00,14

00,17

00,17

0,6

00,10

00,10

00,1

K5

The revenue relation from sales to the size of all assets

11,88

11

00,86

1

11,0

11,00

00,86

Altman's z-score:

22,94

22,19

11,86

Figure 1 - Dynamics of indicators of liquidity of the current assets

 

By results of calculation value of coefficients of Altman Abyroy for 2010-2012gg. it is visible that in probability of bankruptcy respectively made-2,94; 2,19; 1,86 - it testifies to average and high probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise that not in the best way characterizes a financial condition of the enterprise.

Thus, the analysis of solvency and probability of bankruptcy, shows that delivery of the credits is connected with the increased risk, calculation value of coefficients of Altman testifies to high probability of bankruptcy.

 

Literature:

1 . K.Sh.Dyusembayev. Analysis of financial statements. Textbook. - Alma-Ata: Economy, 2009. - 366ñ.

2 . Savitskaya G. V. Analysis of economic activity of the enterprise: Studies. grant / G.V.Savitskaya. - the 7th prod. reslave. and additional - Mn. : New edition, 2007.