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Nurpeissova Zh.S.
A.Baitursynov Kostanai State University, Kazakhstan
Prediction
of Altman's method
In the
economic relations often there are moments when owing to certain reasons some
subjects of economic activity appear incapable to pay off according to the
obligations. The special institute of
insolvency (bankruptcy) of unprofitably working enterprises which along with a
freedom of enterprise, a private property is one of necessary elements of any
normally functioning market economy is engaged in regulation of such
situations.
There
are two main approaches to a bankruptcy prediction. The first is based on financial data and includes operating in
some coefficients. The second is based
on data on the bankrupt enterprises and their comparison with the relevant data
of the studied enterprise.
The
most known multiple-factor models of forecasting of insolvency of the
organization are: Altman's model;
Taffler’s Model; Fox Model; Model of Chester; Saifullin and Kadykov's
five-factorial model; Four-factorial model of Irkutsk GEA.
From
methods of forecasting of bankruptcy big distribution was gained by Altman's
model (an index of solvency of Altman, Altman's Z-account). This index was
constructed by means of the device of the multiplicative discriminant analysis
and has an appearance:
Z = 1,2* õ1+ 1,4 *õ2 + 3,3 *õ3+ 0,6 *õ4 + 0,999*õ5 (1)
In
Altman's formula five variables are used:
X1 –
the relation of working capital to the sum of assets of corporation;
X2 –
the relation of the unallotted income to the sum of assets;
X3 –
the relation of the operating income (to a deduction of percent and taxes) to
the sum of assets;
X4 –
the relation of own capital to total amount of assets;
X5 –
the relation of an amount of sale to the sum of assets.
The
multiplicative discriminant analysis also has an appearance:
Table 1
- Scale of probability of bankruptcy
Z-accounts
value |
Probability
of bankruptcy |
less
than 1,8 |
the
very high |
from
1,81 to 2,7 |
the
high |
from
2,71 to 2,99 |
average |
from
3,0 |
the
low |
For
forecasting of bankruptcy of the organization we will use Abyroy 7 LLP data. We
will carry out calculation of probability of bankruptcy, calculations it is
representable in table 2.
Table 2
- Calculation of probability of bankruptcy of Abyroy 7 LLP
Koef-t |
Calculation |
Value on |
Multiplier |
Work (ãð. 3 x ãð. 4) |
||||
|
|
22010 |
22011 |
22012 |
|
22010 |
22011 |
22012 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
||||
K1 |
Relation of working capital
to the size of all assets |
00,43 |
00,38 |
00,38 |
1,2 |
00,52 |
00,46 |
00,46 |
K2 |
The relation of retained
earnings and funds of special appointment to the size of all assets |
00,07 |
00,12 |
00,13 |
1,4 |
00,10 |
00,17 |
00,18 |
K3 |
Relation Finn. result from
sales to the size of all assets |
00,11 |
00,14 |
00,06 |
3,3 |
00,36 |
00,46 |
00,21 |
K4 |
Relation of own capital to
the loan |
00,14 |
00,17 |
00,17 |
0,6 |
00,10 |
00,10 |
00,1 |
K5 |
The revenue relation from
sales to the size of all assets |
11,88 |
11 |
00,86 |
1 |
11,0 |
11,00 |
00,86 |
Altman's z-score: |
22,94 |
22,19 |
11,86 |
Figure
1 - Dynamics of indicators of liquidity of the current assets
By
results of calculation value of coefficients of Altman Abyroy for 2010-2012gg.
it is visible that in probability of bankruptcy respectively made-2,94; 2,19;
1,86 - it testifies to average and high probability of bankruptcy of the
enterprise that not in the best way characterizes a financial condition of the
enterprise.
Thus,
the analysis of solvency and probability of bankruptcy, shows that delivery of
the credits is connected with the increased risk, calculation value of
coefficients of Altman testifies to high probability of bankruptcy.
Literature:
1 .
K.Sh.Dyusembayev. Analysis of financial statements. Textbook. - Alma-Ata:
Economy, 2009. - 366ñ.
2 .
Savitskaya G. V. Analysis of economic activity of the enterprise: Studies.
grant / G.V.Savitskaya. - the 7th prod. reslave. and additional - Mn. : New
edition, 2007.