ГЕОГРАФИЯ И ГЕОЛОГИЯ/9. Экономическая география

Doctor of geographical scientists, academician of National of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, professor Beisenova A.S.,

Askerbekova A.M.

KazNPU named after Abai, Kazakhstan

KAZAKHSTAN’S POTENTIAL FOR WIND POWER

This article considers the problem of development of wind power as one of the most perspective and available sources of alternative power engineering in Kazakhstan.

Abstract: Kazakhstan is a country rich in natural resources—particularly oil, natural gas, and coal—but it should nevertheless diversify its energy supply to include non-carbon sources. Wind power are particularly well-suited to this country, which has one of the best wind sites in the world and the highest per capita solar insulation. Wind energy is already competitively priced with new coal plants, and concentrated solar thermal power, which can serve both base and peak loads, will soon be competitive with natural gas. Moreover the costs of both these energies are insulated from fluctuations in fuel prices and legislation that will restrict carbon emissions, providing a level of investment certainty unavailable with fossil fuels. Together, these technologies will allow Kazakhstan to drastically reduce its reliance on coal, and could actually position the country to become a clean energy exporter in a region with high energy demands but limited generating capacity.

Keywords: Kazakhstan, Wind Power, Energy, Wind farm, Climate Change

Introduction

Kazakhstan is a country rich in natural resources—particularly oil, natural gas, and coal—but it should nevertheless diversify its energy supply to include non-carbon sources. Not only is there an environmental imperative for this shift, there is also an economic rationale. National coal production has fallen due to both an increase in mining accidents and the declining economic viability of coal in Kazakhstan (Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2008). Moreover, coal-fired power plants in Kazakhstan lack flue gas treatment, and thus cause extensive regional air pollution (United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and Global Environment Facility (GEF) 2004). The production of oil and natural gas, while a boon for the economy, has also resulted in extensive environmental damage. All three of these resources contribute to global climate change through the emission of carbon dioxide. As international efforts to cap or tax carbon begin to gain traction, substitutes for carbon-intensive energy sources will capture a greater market share. As Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow, its energy needs will also expand. By channeling a portion of its considerable oil and natural gas revenues into clean energy production, Kazakhstan would be able to accomplish several related objectives. Not only would it diversify its own economy and lay the foundations for a sustainable energy future, but, in a region with growing energy demands and irregularly dispersed natural resources, Kazakhstan could take a leadership role in both providing and developing renewable energy. This can be accomplished by investing now in wind .

Wind energy. Energy transferred with the motion of air in the lower atmosphere that arises from differential heating of the earth. The energy in the wind can be extracted as mechanical energy to do work such as grind grains (a wind mill) or generate electricity (wind turbine).[2]

Wind energy is important because it holds immense potential in supplying electricity across the world. Unlike other sources of electricity that require fuel in processing plants, wind energy generates electricity through wind, which is free. Wind is considered a native fuel that does not need to be transported or mined, eliminating two costly expenses from long-term energy expenses

ADVANTAGES OF WIND POWER:

1. Renewable Energy : Wind energy in itself is a source of renewable energy which means it can be produced again and again since it is available in plenty. It is cleanest form of renewable energy and is currently used many leading developed and developing nations to fulfill their demand for electricity.

2. Reduces Fossil Fuels Consumption : Dependence on the fossil fuels could be reduced to much extent if it is adopted on the much wider scale by all the countries across the globe. It could be answer to the ever increasing demand for petroleum and gas products. Apart from this, it can also help to curb harmful gas emissions which are the major source of global warming.

3. Less Air and Water Pollution : Wind energy doesn’t pollute at all. It is that form of energy that will exist till the time sun exists. It does not destroy the environment or release toxic gases. Wind turbines are mostly found in coastal areas, open plain and gaps in mountains where the wind is reliable, strong and steady. An ideal location would have a near constant flow of non-turbulent wind throughout the year, with a minimum likelihood of sudden powerful bursts of wind.

4. Initial Cost : The cost of producing wind energy has come down steadily over the last few years. The main cost is the installation of wind turbines. Moreover the land used to install wind turbines can also be used for agriculture purpose. Also, when combine with solar power, it provides cheap, reliable, steady and great source of energy for the for developed and developing countries.

5. Create Many Jobs : Wind energy on the other hand has created many jobs for the local people. From installation of wind turbines to maintenance of the area where turbines are located, it has created wide range of opportunities for the people. Since most of the wind turbines are based in coastal and hilly areas, people living there are often seen in maintenance of wind turbines.

Despite these advantages there few disadvantages too which makes wind turbines not suitable for some locations

Wind power capacity has expanded rapidly to 336 GW in June 2014, and wind energy production was around 4% of total worldwide electricity usage, and growing rapidly. [Annex 2 3]

Annex 2-New installed capacity

The actual amount of electricity that wind is able to generate is calculated by multiplying the nameplate capacity by the capacity factor, which varies according to equipment and location. Estimates of the capacity factors for wind installations are in the range of 35% to 44%.^[4]

Wind potential in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is exceptionally rich in wind resources. About 50% of Kazakhstan’s territory has average wind speeds about 4-5 m/sec at a height of 30m, the deminimus figure for good technical potential wind energy development. In some estimates the wind potential of Kazakhstan forms about 1820 billion KW/h per year spread over the significant territory of Kazakhstan. Most windy sites are located in Caspian sea area in Atyray and Mangistay oblasts, in center of Kazakhstan in Akmola, Karaganda oblasts and some areas in the South of Kazakhstan. A country wide-wind atlas is available (Annex 3.)

Annex 3- Wind atlas of Kazakhstan.

With a density of wind capacity about 10 MW/sq.km there is a possibility to install thousands MW of wind farms in Kazakhstan. The success in developing wind energy in Kazakhstan is largely dependent of the availability of reliable meteorological data on wind potential. Detailed meteorological data is used in feasibility studies for the justification of the construction of large wind farms. Detailed wind data is gathered using specialist meteorological equipment mounted on masts at a height of 30-80 meters over a minimum of one year. Such measurements have been accomplished for Djungar Gates and Chylyk Corridor in a frame of the UNDP/GEF project on wind energy in 1998-2000. Thus, in Djungar Gates – wind potential is estimated as 525W/m2, in Chylyk corridor is about 240W/m2 accordingly. Power production of wind turbines in these places could achieve 4400kW/h/MW and 3200kW/h/MW respectively. The data confirm about excellent wind potential in Djungar Gates and good wind potential in Chylyk Corridor. Both sites are considered as very perspective for large wind farm construction.

The UNDP project on wind energy continue carry out detailed wind study on most promised sites in Kazakhstan in order to evaluate wind potential and to prepare the Kazakhstan wind atlas. The data will be used for the feasibility study for wind farm construction and small wind installation.

On the basis of study, funded by UNDP and executed by Kazselenergoproekt and Energieteam Company (Germany), a list of prospective sites was prepared for the construction of large wind farms in Kazakhstan. The sites for the construction of wind farms were selected on the basis of long-term data from meteorological stations on average wind speed, computer analysis of Kazakhstan territory taking into account the following factors:

1. availability of electricity grid and sub-stations for transmission of wind power;

2. suitability of the topography and the altitude of the site;

3. presence of electricity consumers;

4. presence of transport communications;

5. practicality of wind farm construction;

6. presence of preliminary developmental works of wind farms construction;

The list includes 20 sites around territory of Kazakhstan and attached as [Annex 4].

Annex 4- The list of prospective sites for wind farms construction

The success in developing wind energy in Kazakhstan is largely dependent of the availability of reliable meteorological data on wind potential. Detailed meteorological data is used in feasibility studies for the justification of the construction of large wind farms. Detailed wind data is gathered using specialist meteorological equipment mounted on masts at a height of 30-80 meters over a minimum of one year. Such measurements have been accomplished for Djungar Gates and Chylyk Corridor as part of the UNDP project on wind energy. Thus, in Chylyk corridor the average wind speed is about 5.8 m/sec at the height of 10m with a generation potential of 240W/m2 and in Djungar Gates – 7.5m/sec and 525W/m2 accordingly. Energy production from wind turbines in these places could achieve 3200kW/h/MW and 4400kW/h/MW respectively. The data confirm about excellent wind potential in Djungar Gates and good wind potential in Chylyk Corridor. Both sites are considered as very perspective for large wind farm construction. The UNDP project on wind energy continue carry out detailed wind study on most promised sites in Kazakhstan in order to prepare wind potential assessment and the Kazakhstan wind atlas. The data will be used for the feasibility study for wind farm construction and applying small wind installation.

Economical aspects of wind energy development

Kazakhstan is exceptionally rich in wind resources. Many sites around the territory of Kazakhstan have average yearly wind speeds of 6 m/sec and above, the level that provides acceptable technical performance for a wind energy development. The cost of energy from a wind farm in such places will be about 5,5 to 6,5 cents/kWh taking into account the necessary performance of the capital invested. This compares very favourably with the alternative of generating power from high cost gas and coal when including the cost of long distance transmission.

In order to fully understand the role of wind it is necessary to consider a number of issues. Wind energy is naturally intermittent in nature and therefore can only form a part of any energy system; it is necessary to balance wind power with schedulable forms of generation. Nevertheless, the incorporation of wind energy to a system will reduce the overall dependence on fossil fuels.

Kazakhstan traditionally relies on its vast reserves of coal for power generation. This coal is located largely in the Central of the country, around Karaganda, and Ekibastus. The majority of power generation plant serving the country are also located in this area, with large transmission lines delivering power to where demand exists. In Western Kazakhstan it is expected that gas production associated with the petroleum industry will provide a future source of electricity.

Accordingly, many places in Kazakhstan rely on power to be transmitted over very large distances from the centres of power generation. Such transmission results in significant losses of power due to aging transmission infrastructure, inefficiency and also from theft.

In the United Kingdom the total power production is nearly 300 bn kWh/year, carried on a transmission system of 14 000km. Therefore, the density of power on the system is 21MWh/km. In Kazakhstan 67 bn kWh are carried on a system of 24 000km, equivalent to 2,8MW/km. In other words the Kazakhstan power industry must invest in 10 times as much infrastructure for an equivalent amount of transmission as the UK. Such reliance on infrastructure means either significant cost, or significant losses due to long transmission and aging systems.

Increasing power supplies to such remote areas to meet expanding demand would involve significant capital expenditure to upgrade, replace and renew transmission infrastructure in addition to the capital expenditure for the upgrade, replacement and renewal of generation plant. By placing appropriate generation close to the point of demand in such areas, capital expenditure on transmission infrastructure can be reduced and losses avoided. The structure of transmission charging in Kazakhstan is to pay a transmission charge that varies with the location of the consumer. This system does not incentivize efficiency and does not allow the recognition of savings to the overall network through local power generation.

If an allowance is made for the necessity of capital expenditure on infrastructure in the commercial assessment of a project, then the price per kWh supplied locally to the generation plant that is required by a wind power project is balanced by the associated savings in transmission improvements.

This cost compares with the energy from new coal energy station. Thus, for regions with very good wind potential and an energy deficit, wind farms can be an economical alternative for the construction of new coal power stations, at the same time possessing indisputable ecological advantages.

Coal fired power stations currently operating in Kazakhstan are selling electricity at a price of about 1 US cent/kWh, broadly similar to the marginal cost of operation. New capacity, which will be necessary to meet the rapidly increasing demand for power in many areas of the country, will not be able to operate at such low income levels but will charge at a level to cover the cost of capital investment.

Power is transmitted by the state owned electricity transmission company, Kegoc, with a charge structure based on the location of the customer. There are eight transmission regions each with a unique flat charge. Regional charge bands are loosely based on average transmission distance and bulk volume of electricity supplied.

In order to meet increasing demands for power in areas remote from the centers of power production it is necessary to consider the investment required to upgrade and expand existing and to construct new transmission infrastructure.

The true price of power supplied to a remote area of Kazakhstan therefore should reflect the marginal cost of production + the cost of capital employed in new plant + marginal cost of transmission (which must include losses)+ the cost of capital employed in the new infrastructure. The price of power from a newly-constructed local wind farm compares well to this total when the true costs are reflected.

Unfortunately the current convention of charging flat rates for transmission does not facilitate savings on cost of capital required for infrastructure expansion, or on losses, by reflecting the true cost of transmission over long distances. A wind power generation project located in a remote area serving local demand saves the network a significantly greater amount than a wind farm located close to, and operating in direct competition with, a coal-fired power station. The savings can be demonstrated but unfortunately, for the wind farm to be able to benefit from the system savings, it will be necessary to create a charging mechanism that balances the inequality.

Over the past 20 years it has become normal global practice to compensate for disadvantages in the market by granting renewable energy generation certain privileges. State regulation provides support for the development of renewable energy and can be combined with international financial mechanisms such as the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. Regulation can ensure that the true value of wind energy is reflected in the incomes while Carbon Credits generated by a wind farm can be traded on international markets to provide a valuable additional income. However for the use of Kyoto Protocol mechanisms it is necessary for ratification by Kazakhstan.

It is not suggested that wind power should replace coal or gas-fired power generation. Wind is a complementary form of generation that adds additional value to a fossil fuel based generation system. A system without wind power may be reliant on large, centrally located, environmentally damaging power plant transmitting power over long distances. It is sensitive to world fossil fuel prices and to physical damage to the system. By including wind in the system, a degree of security is provided from fluctuations in fuel prices, physical security of the network is enhanced and cost effective power can be provided to outlying regions of the country.

Ecological aspects of wind energy development

Wind farms do not consume organic fuel and by this way do not emit to the atmosphere products of fuel combustion neither do they produce solid waste products. Each KW/h of energy from wind farms, which replaces energy from coal station, prevents harmful emissions to the atmosphere of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, fly ash and greenhouse gases, as well as storing of ashes-slag waste products. The installation of a 500MW wind farm with yearly production of 1.5 million MW/h of energy will prevent yearly emissions to the atmosphere of:

- 1, 5 ml tons of GHG

- 12000 tons of sulfur oxide

- 7800 tons of nitrogen oxide

-12 600 tons of fly ash as well as of the dumping of 420 000 tonnes of bottom ash/slag material.

The down side to the development of windfarms includes the possible bird strikes. Research has shown the impact on birds is significantly less than that from collision with auto transport, buildings, constructions and others. Noise is insignificant and is mitigated by the installing turbines remote from habitation, at least 1km from the nearest dwelling.

Social aspects of wind energy development

The development of wind energy has the following social effects:

- creation of conditions for social and economical development in energy deficient regions and remote rural regions by the improvement of access to energy,

- contribution to the development of local industry, small and medium business and the creation of new jobs,

- contribution to country industrialization and the development of modern technologies, science and techniques.

Thus, Kazakhstan possesses significant energy resources such as fossil fuel, and has established a developed power industry, which secures energy consumption and covers power demands of the country for long term perspective. Yet, the analysis demonstrates the irrational use of energy resources. Kazakhstan’s GDP proves to be a rather power-consuming one and significantly exceeds the corresponding indicators of the developed countries, causing decline in the economical competitiveness of the country. Mainly Kazakhstan relies on coal reserves for centralized power generation and transmission, and such state of affairs results in significant power losses and extensive environment contamination.

Kazakhstan possesses significant renewable energy resources primarily hydro and wind energy. Successful use of such renewable sources may provide local energy supplies and contribute to network security and stability, cost reduction and environmental preservation in long term prospective. Kazakhstan is rich in wind energy resources and has big wind energy development potential. Meanwhile the power industry of Kazakhstan does not seem to apply this modern and highly-developing technology. One of the barriers is lack of the legislative and regulative support, which would take an account of the renewable energy benefits for the community within the market boundaries of the power industry

Conclusion

Kazakhstan is in a position to both diversify its economy and meet its electricity needs by supporting the development of carbon-free energy. Wind are particularly well-suited to this country, which has the highest per capita solar insolation and one of the best wind sites in the world. In the near term, Kazakhstan should expand its existing wind program to meet the needs of the electricity-deficient but wind-rich southern region. From this base, wind technology can be introduced to other regions of Kazakhstan with favorable conditions. In the long term, the government should augment wind with concentrated solar thermal plants located throughout the Kazakh steppe. Together, these technologies will allow Kazakhstan to drastically reduce its reliance on coal, and could actually position the country to become a clean energy exporter. To achieve these goals Kazakhstan should not limit itself to existing legislation, but should set an aggressive renewable portfolio standard that requires a significant percent of electricity to be generated from renewable sources.

Bibliography

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2. http://www.windenergy.kz/rus/articles/

3. The WorldWind Energy Association 2014 Half-year Report WWEA Head Office Bonn, Germany

4. Cherednichenko, V.S. and A.V. Cherednichenko 2007. Potential of Renewable Energy Sources Usage in the Republic of Kazakhstan (based on MARKAL Model). http://www.reeep.org/file_upload/5272_tmpphpp706wP.doc [Accessed 15 April 2008].

5. . A Comparison of Wind Power Industry Development Strategies in Spain,India and China. Prepared for the Center for Resource Solutions. http://www.resourcesolutions.org Petersen, Erik. 1999.

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