Prof. Aubakirova Zh.Y.
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan
Master. Abilda S.K.
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan
The SWOT-analysis of development of the housing
market in the Republic of Kazakhstan
The
real estate market and level of its development characterize development of
national economy. In development of real estate market in Kazakhstan, it is
possible to allocate the following stages.
The
first, most rough period of development, real estate market worried in the
early nineties. Opening and development of the enterprises happened practically
in legal vacuum, demand much more advanced the offer, and, therefore, the
income was very high. The reference point can be considered here permission to
privatization of apartments and, as a result, the appeared opportunity to sell
and buy apartments. Then there was a significant amount of businessmen and just
wealthy people who wanted to improve the housing conditions in the new way,
that is not expectation of free municipal accommodation, not difficult schemes
of exchange, and just purchase of apartments. Apartments were at that time
privatized slightly, selling apartments there was a little, and there were
already enough buyers [1].
At
the second stage the first regulations appear. This period is characterized by
granting considerable privileges that, at preservation of a good conjuncture,
allowed gaining good income that attracted in this segment of the market of new
businessmen. Increase in prices for housing began, but apartments began to be
on sale much more difficultly, and the buyer became choosier. There were new
forms of customer service. Appeared, in particular, and sale of apartments with
payment by installments, granting the credits on the security of apartments
began to extend widely. Some firms began to work under exclusive contracts,
undertaking the obligation to realize the apartment of the client for a certain
term.
The
third stage is characterized by an excess of demand over supply, toughening of
the legislative base, intense competition in the market that led to fall of the
income. The small enterprises are ruined, average and even large combat for
survival.
From
the second half of the year 2001 there came the new stage of development of
real estate market of Kazakhstan - a stage of the beginning of stabilization
and some rise. It occurred against the background of favorable development of
macroeconomic indicators in the country and, in particular, low inflation
rates, smooth and limited devaluation of tenge to dollar[2].
Respectively,
the fourth stage (2001-2007) in market development - a cycle of new
construction when improvement of an economic situation in the country, growth
of the monetary income of the population, introduction of system of mortgage
lending and development of capital development, increase in prices for primary
and secondary real estate is observed begins. Again, the situation when demand
exceeds offers takes place. Meanwhile, the global financial crisis subjected
real estate market to influence of external shocks. Respectively, it is
possible to consider that the real estate market entered the fifth stage
(2007-2010) when the cycle of saturated market was realized. It caused crisis
in construction, reduction of prices, suspension of construction, suspension of
issuance of credits by banks, the high rate of inflation, the low monetary
income of the population. In the market, the offer of the real estate exceeds
demand.
Situation
in Kazakhstan such is that the entry of real estate market in the sixth stage
was outlined (since 2010) to which it is characteristic: banks of the second
level and real estate development companies are focused on the buyer having own
means, but not loan, development of construction at the initiative of the
state, the state support of real estate development companies for completion of
shared-equity construction, preferential crediting[3].
For
carrying out the analysis, development of real estate market can be considered
on four aspects:
Strengths
– internal merits.
Weaknesses
– internal negative qualities.
Opportunities
– the external factors improving prospects.
Threats
– the external factors capable to undermine future success.
Analyzing
the cost of a residential real estate, it is possible to draw a conclusion that
since
2015 there is its gradual decrease (see the figure 2) connected with the
following factors:
•
transition to a floating rate of tenge;
•
devaluation of tenge;
• In
2016 the GDP level grew by 1%, and in 2017. For 1 quarter made 3%;
•
percent on issuances of credits in BVU for small and medium business
made
from 20-25%;
•
drop in oil prices;
•
increase in the rate of inflation.
For
settlement of the above-stated situations the state holds events for
development of the market of a residential real estate that is the positive
(strong) side of the analysis of the considered market.
For
preservation of growth rates of construction and ensuring end of construction
objects which input is provided in 2014-2020 to builders by the state presented
support through Fund of sustainable development of Samrukkazyn. On construction
of housing through JSC Real Estate Fund Samruk- azyna it is provided to use
proceeds of credit from JSC Samruk- azyna and means of National fund of the
Republic of Kazakhstan: in 2013 – 39 621 million tenges, in 2014 – 59 432
million tenges.
The amount of financing of the Program
for 2012 - 2020 will be specified for the corresponding financial year within
expected indicators of the republican budget and within the procedures provided
by the budget legislation by consideration of an order of realization of the
budgetary investments
Banks of the second level reduce to
shareholders interest rates for earlier allocated credits.
Meanwhile,
it is only the narrow contingent of the negatives shown on domestic real estate
market.
It is known that the
defining indicators in development of this market is a price level, development
of standard and legal base, the size construction investments and the area,
volume of commissioning of the inhabited massif of the real estate. In
Kazakhstan all these indicators are connected with realization of a complex of
state programs.
Introduction of State
programs of RK solves the following social and economic problems:
• implementation of offers
on demand for the housing real estate;
• improvement of system of
mortgage lending;
• development of
construction savings system;
• crediting of local
executive bodies;
• development of individual
housing construction;
• development of the
investment capital for individual housing constructions;
• improvement of programs of
a contribution of the state investments on housing construction;
• reduction of prices for 1
sq.m. of the real estate;
• Introduction of new
technologies and development production, environmentally friendly domestic
construction materials.
Thus, in a research the
analysis of a situation in real estate market is made and the reasons of change
of cost of housing from 2010-2016 are established. For the purpose of
forecasting and an assessment of real estate, market in the Republic of
Kazakhstan in dissertation work the attention was focused on:
• definition of groups of
the factors influencing market estimation of cost primary real estate in the
Republic of Kazakhstan, including Astana;
• forecasting of indicators
of efficiency of the market by a veinreal estate;
• identification of prospect
and recommendations about improvement the market of a residential real estate
in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Literature:
1.
Stanley Morgan, Cooper D., Ring A.: The Improvement of National
Housing System, Deloitte Discussion Papers #2011, New York, USA, July 2011.
2.
Tomnitz Donald, Horton D.R. The industrial competitiveness of
transitional Industry /Paper presented at KDI 33rd Anniversary Conference on Industrial Competitiveness of
Asia, Seoul: Korea Development
Institute, March 2014
3.
Kulumbetova L. B. Analysis of realization State housing development
programmes in the Republic of Kazakhstan//the Bulletin of university Turan. –
2016. - No. 3-4 (32). – Page 77-81.