Экономические науки/2. Финансы и банковское дело

Duguzhev Islam Borisovich.

Kabardino-Balkarian the state agrarian university of V.M.Kokov

THE REAL RATE OF REFINANCING

Definition of ways of stimulation of economic growth in conditions of increase of promissory notes of the state budgets becomes the main question, the answer on which is defining for the majority of the Central Banks. In the given work the opportunity of influence of the Central Banks on economy by means of change of the rate of refinancing is analysed. The greatest accent has been made on comparison of the rate of refinancing of the Central Bank and a level of mid-annual change of consumer prices. It is drawn a conclusion that during the periods of the greatest threats for national economy regulators, frequently, reduce the rate of refinancing to levels of the negative key rate.

In system of the interest rates established by the Central Bank, the rate of refinancing has key value. Changes of the rate of refinancing inform participants of the financial market on an estimation the Regulator of the general direction of change of an inflationary situation and, thus, influence expectations of economic agents and interest rates in economy. The rate of refinancing of the Central Bank is some kind of the top border of interest rates in the monetary market that renders indirect influence on their dynamics. The Central Bank influences levels and structure of interest rates in the monetary market also through an establishment of interest rates on credit it credit and depositary operations.

For last years the main question in economic there is a spelling arrangement of commas in the offer: « To spend it is impossible to save ». Recently becomes supporters of measures of stimulation of economy more and more, start up and due to increase of promissory notes in the future. The similar tendency is caused by a supersoft monetary policy of some the largest emitters of money, as leads artificial наращению to superfluous liquidity in the financial markets.

Last stronghold of measures of rigid economy till recent times there was an Eurozone, trying to lower unreasonable обремененность national economies of the peripheral countries the debt loading exceeding volume of all annual manufacture of these countries. In this context the recent decision of the European Central Bank (ЕЦБ) about decrease in the rate of refinancing on 25 items up to 0,5 % annual should be considered as a first step to stimulation of economic growth [1].

For this purpose there is a number of preconditions, the main things from which decrease in deficiencies of budgets of the problem countries of the Eurozone and necessity of economic growth for the further output from debt crisis.

Decrease in the rate of refinancing ЕЦБ for commercial banks should give рецесионной to economy an additional impulse, by means of increase in the monetary offer. The given mechanism has proved the efficiency on an example of the USA experienced the largest economic crisis since times of Great depression. In comparison from the USA rates in the Eurozone remain high, that it is possible to regard as an additional reserve which the Federal Reserve System of the USA (ФРС) any more has no.

At recent assembly FRS has left the key rate for commercial banks at record-breaking low level in 0 - 0,25 % annual.

So soft monetary policy in a consequence can lead to increase in inflationary pressure at economic.

The first interrelation between growth of economy, the interest rate and inflation has described I.Fisher. This communication is expressed by the equation of an exchange of I.Fisher, or, otherwise, the equation of the quantitative theory of money:

M x V = P x Q,

Where

M - quantity of money in circulation,

V - speed of the reference of money,

Р - the average price of the goods and services,

Q - quantity of the goods and the services made within the limits of national economy during the certain period of time (it is usual for a year) [2].

Thus the real volume of manufacture is defined with factors of manufacture available at present in economy (the set size). Hence, change of nominal volume of GNP is caused only by change of the prices. Thus, according to the quantitative theory of money the price level is proportional to quantity of money in circulation. But if it so also change of a price level will be also in the certain dependence on change of the monetary offer.

Escalating of the monetary offer at constant demand can get economy, besides other, in so-called « a liquid trap »: the interest rate can decrease to a critical level that will mean exclusively high preference of liquidity [3].. The Low interest rate testifies that securities the expensive, hence, people refuse their purchase, hold savings in the form of money. If thus the offer of money continues to increase, the interest rate can not react any more to it since below the certain level it cannot lower. At present the rate of refinancing is on a minimum level for all history of the USA and makes from 0 % up to 0.25 % a year [4].

Now base rates are in many developed countries of the world on historical minima. Escalating of superfluous liquidity has only temporary effect since the increase in the monetary offer at a constant level of production increases inflationary pressure and in long-term prospect leads to sharp growth of inflation. Long use of the issue lever by the main financial institutions of the largest economy of the world mines under the base of the future stable development of all economic. There is a serious threat to all planetary financial system since the main basic principles of monetary and credit regulation are broken. More and more obvious there is a necessity of occurrence of institute наднационального financial regulation, creation of uniform rules and standards of the monetary and credit control. Increase in a rate of inflation at a constant level of the key rate обесценивает real actives of the Central Bank [5]. Carrying out of supersoft monetary policy increases debt loading by economy. Paradox that current cheapness of loans is caused by artificial creation of superfluous liquidity through programs of quantitative mitigation. A source of their financing is the increase in the state loans. This mechanism is extremely dangerous, as for deduction of low interest rates under the previous bonds demands issue new. Sooner or later the further loans become impossible because of huge обремененности the previous debts and, as consequence, раздутого a state duty. Risks are great, that at reduction of measures of maintenance of liquidity in the financial market of the rate will essentially increase. This moment can become a trigger hook for start of a deflationary spiral for all economic.

References:

1. Official site of the European Central Bank; Internet-resource http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

2. Fisher S., Dornbush R., Shmalenzy R., 1993.

3. G.M. Keynes Obshchaja the theory of employment, percent and money 1936

4. Data of official site FRS of the USA http://www.federalreserve.gov

5. Duguzhev I.B. clause « Franklin: war and the world », Magazine « Days of a science », Publishing house «Prague», the Czech Republic, 2012.