N.O. Melnik
Kyiv State Maritime Academy
Kyoto protocol – reality and the way of life
The Kyoto
Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at fighting global warming. The UNFCCC is an
international environmental treaty with the goal of achieving
"stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
system" [1].
The Protocol was
initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on
16 February 2005. As of November 2009, 187 states have signed and ratified the
protocol [2].
Under the
Protocol, 37 industrialized countries (called "Annex I countries")
commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (GHG) (carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases
(hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by them, and all member
countries give general commitments. Annex I countries agreed to reduce their
collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission
limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping, but are
in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are
dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the
Ozone Layer.
The benchmark
1990 emission levels were accepted by the Conference of the Parties of UNFCCC
(decision 2/CP.3) were the values of "global warming potential"
calculated for the IPCC Second Assessment Report.[3] These figures are used for
converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable CO2 equivalents
when computing overall sources and sinks.
The Protocol
allows for several "flexible mechanisms", such as emissions trading,
the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation to allow Annex I
countries to meet their GHG emission limitations by purchasing GHG emission
reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges, projects that
reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries, from other Annex I countries, or
from annex I countries with excess allowances.
Each Annex I
country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals from sinks
under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate a person (called
a "designated national authority") to create and manage its
greenhouse gas inventory. Virtually all of the non-Annex I countries have also
established a designated national authority to manage its Kyoto obligations,
specifically the "CDM process" that determines which GHG projects
they wish to propose for accreditation by the CDM Executive Board.
Under the Treaty,
countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However,
the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by
way of three market-based mechanisms.
The Kyoto
mechanisms are: Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market", Clean
development mechanism (CDM) and Joint implementation (JI).
The mechanisms
help stimulate green investment and help Parties meet their emission targets in
a cost-effective way.
According to the
projections each country has sent to the UNFCCC Secretariat, 14 countries will
reach their targets in 2010. Some of the countries that had reached their
targets in 2002 will increase their emissions between 2002-2010, while others
like Germany will decrease and reach their target in 2010. The number of
countries reaching their targets is pretty stable. Projection data for some of
the countries that reached their targets in 2002 are not available. Between
2002 and 2010 the number of countries that must reduce their emissions by more
than 20% to reach their target is estimated to increase from 3 to 10 [5].
The Kyoto
Protocol’s effectiveness will depend upon two critical factors: whether Parties
follow the Protocol’s rulebook and comply with their commitments; and whether
the emissions data used to assess compliance is reliable. Recognizing this, the
Kyoto Protocol and Marrakesh Accords, adopted by CMP 1 in Montreal, Canada, in
December 2005, include a set of monitoring and compliance procedures to enforce
the Protocol’s rules, address any compliance problems, and avoid any error in
calculating emissions data and accounting for transactions under the three
Kyoto mechanisms (emissions trading, clean development mechanism and joint
implementation) and activities related to land use, land use change and
forestry.
What`s about
Ukraine? Under this treaty, Ukraine might be one of the main beneficiaries
because it can sell large amounts of unused assigned emission rights (with an
annual revenue estimated at USD 740 m till USD 2.9 bn from 2008-2012), and
because additional reduction of emissions can be achieved at a relatively low
cost and sold as further emission rights abroad. This last aspect is of
particularly high importance as it potentially stimulates the influx of badly
needed foreign direct investment. However, Ukraine's successful participation
requires that the necessary institutional infrastructure to measure, monitor
and trade emission right certificates is being set up by the time the protocol
gets into force (expected for 2008). So far, Ukraine has made only minor
progress in ratifying the protocol and is lacking far behind the developments
in other Eastern European countries, in particular the EU accession candidates.
This is all the more important, as Ukraine has to compete with those countries
for such "climate investments," and funds will flow into those
countries where institutional conditions are the most advanced (total influx of
climate investment into Eastern Europe is estimated to USD 2.4 bn to USD 5.8 bn
per year)[6].
Literature
1)
The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change.. Retrieved 15 November 2005.
2)
"Kyoto Protocol: Status of
Ratification" (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change. 2009-01-14. Retrieved 2009-05-06.
3)
"Methodological issues related
to the Kyoto protocol". Report of the Conference of the Parties on its
third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1998-03-25. Retrieved 2010-02-13.
4)
http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
5)
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/kyoto_protocol_projected_2010_target_status
6)
http://www.ier.kiev.ua/English/RT/rt04042003_eng.cgi