Экономические науки/1. Банки и банковская система
Master of 1 course
of the Institute of World Economy and Finance
Bokova Natalia
Volgograd State University, Russia
Planning revenue as a key task of the company
For any company
planning a significant revenue - one of the key tasks.
On the basis of
this forecast will be based sales budget, which in turn will affect the rest of
the company's plans. Accordingly, the question arises: "How in the face of
uncertainty as much as possible to accurately predict future revenues of the
company?"
Universal solution to
this problem does not exist. Any projections contain a certain error. Given the
current situation in the economy, mistakes in planning most likely increase.
However, there are several simple and reliable way of planning that can benefit
the company. And their combination will give the most accurate result, which is
possible only in conditions of crisis and uncertainty.
The amount revenues
scheduling methods that are applied in practice, sufficiently large. And each
of them has their own strengths and weaknesses. Optimum results, and therefore
reliable, can be achieved, if the forecast of future sales you will build using
several techniques. Let us dwell on those which, on the one hand, have gained
popularity in the companies, and on the other - are quite simple.
The basis of
the plan in terms of revenue the company can be expert estimates sales
managers. The approach is very simple. At the initial stage the experts
(business department specialists) get to explore the market for the analysis of
results. Then they, based on the information received, sales experience, and
most importantly - on their subjective assessments, build a sales plan in
natural and value terms. Typically, the planning horizon this approach does not
exceed three years. The disadvantages of the described method of planning
include subjective assessments. No one is immune from excessive optimism or,
conversely, the pessimism of experts. In addition, expert assessment of future
sales can be sustained in the event of a substantial rearrangement of the
market, the emergence of fundamentally new types of products, and so on. D.
The strength of
that peer review can be successfully applied in the absence of statistical data
on the state and dynamics of the market, accumulated sales history. In general
we can say that the use of expert evaluations as a primary or, worse, a single
approach to planning revenue from the sale, not the best solution.
Another method that
is often used in companies - planning "from the achieved". The idea
uncomplicated approach and already clear from the title. That is, it is assumed
that the revenue next year will remain at the current year (the worst scenario)
or exceeds its interest in the rate of growth of sales in prior periods,
including the current year.
The use of "made
from" method is important for companies with stable market conditions or
in the rapidly growing industries. Indeed, if the market is growing, it is
easier to lay the future potential of a rational increase in sales volumes,
without using any other more sophisticated methods of analysis and planning.
Another simple method
for revenue planning - "the market." Its essence boils down to the
fact that the company evaluates trends in market growth or decline, and its
sales plans as a share of the future market capacity. A key disadvantage of the
method is that for its use required extensive quantitative (statistical) and
qualitative (competitive) analyzes, for which the company does not always have
adequate human and time resources (in particular, for the most time-consuming
phase of research - collecting primary data) .
The effectiveness of
each method depends on the specifics of business, industry sector, the markets
in which the enterprise operates. In addition to the simple approaches that
have been described above and were the most popular in practice, it can also be
used trend analysis, after adjusting for seasonality and error. However, it is
rarely used by companies.
Bibliography
1. 1. Gorshkova N.V., Lebedeva N.N.
/Interaction of the state and society in the system of tax relations in the
Russian Federation//. Gorshkova N.V., Lebedeva N.N. Bulletin of Volgograd State
University. Series 3. Economics. Ecology, 2014, № 2 (21), s.245-251