Экономические науки/1. Банки и банковская система

Master of 1 course of the Institute of World Economy and Finance

Bokova Natalia

Volgograd State University, Russia

Ways of overcoming the economic crisis in Russia

Currently, Russia's economy is influenced by the economic crisis, as reflected in the fall in economic growth: the budget deficit is observed in many regions, rising inflation, falling oil prices, the depreciation of the ruble and the business activity in the economy.

Many of the current problems of the Russian economy lie in the plane of the non-economic and, consequently, their solutions are also likely in the sphere of politics. The main feature of the current economic situation in Russia - something that many business people do not tend to increase the capitalization of its assets, as it is not profitable. The main causes of the current economic problems in the Russian economy is not so much, but in our heads.

 Due to the current monetary policy at the moment, you can see the amazing economic benefit: in a clearly defined goal of maintaining inflation rates and its decline is a sharp decline in the money supply. It is a fact that can not be overlooked. The amount of money in the economy has plummeted and continues to decline aggressively. In the absence of monetary liquidity and the ability to attract businesses fail to grow your business, start saving, lower costs, salaries, reduce the amount of investment. There is a tightening economy. The consequences can be dire.

The transition to the policy of forced investment and human capital development will help to overcome the economic crisis. However, this is only possible with a decrease in inflation and the key refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Russia by 3-4%. The crisis has had a bias in the social sphere. GDP fell by 3.7%, household consumption - a key indicator of economic well-being - decreased by 10.2%, while the inflation rate in 2015 reached 15.5%, and "sharply reduced the real incomes down."

It may be noted that the decline in real income, consumption, housing construction will continue in 2016.

The main, but not the only element of an effective anti-crisis policy can be a transition to the policy of forced investment and increasing human capital. However, this is possible only if a significant reduction in inflation and the key refinancing rate to 3-4%, otherwise the investment lending will not be attractive. We are talking about strengthening the competitive environment, to prevent unjustified rise in prices, the removal of administrative barriers for business, the full development of public-private partnership, responsibility and improvement of the economic rights of regions and municipalities, and more. A key focus of these changes - protection of business and increasing the role of private property.

The biggest "money bag of the country" are the assets of the banking system, of which only 1.5% are involved in one form or another in the form investkreditov. In order to make the "short" money, banking assets in "long" investments, you need an example of many other countries do this through the issuance of Treasury long-term securities, which could at a low annual interest rate for the purchase of the "Central Bank", " Vnesheconombank "," Agency for Housing mortgage lending "and, possibly, other fixed assets, and then their pledge to issue investment loans for a period of five, ten, 20 years of reliable commercial banks.

The second "money bag" - a savings of citizens. Using even a small portion of these funds for investment purposes, in particular for the construction of housing, the purchase of land for country houses, buy cars, can provide a significant source of funds for the development of relevant industries. Enter the storage system must be carried out through the issuance of bonds, which will give a discount for buying an apartment, land or machines. Invest now need in new technologies and human capital, without which they are not viable.

Russia a rich country, we can say, "underdeveloped countries", in which her dignity and economic advantage. Surviving the crisis in Russia will only further develop what has already been well developed, so you will need to invest in exploration, extraction and processing of minerals, in particular, export-oriented.

Another important area of development is agriculture. On the one hand, it is politically important "food security" and "import substitution" on the other - an export-oriented line of business, it is the basis of the stability of the national currency.

Shall be exempt from the fiscal focus those industries in which no tax

collected, or a component of the consolidated budget is low, and replace the normal tax there on a "presumptive tax" (patents, licenses, simplified system of taxation).

It is necessary to stimulate the creation of new jobs, self-employment and family business. During the crisis, it is necessary to give more freedom and competition. Entrepreneurs need to put merit in the creation of jobs, and it should be the policy of each region. Then there will be the jobs, money through payroll taxes and property taxes. It was the future of the region.

It should also be noted that the stock market is the fastest and most reliable indicator of any economy. The stock market - is forecast and investor expectations, as well as a mechanism to attract investment and capital exchange. Modern Russian stock market is characterized by small volumes of trade, shares (excluding the shares of retailers) at a low price, low volatility. He's still alive, but he is not fulfilling its function. This is compounded by the negative control policy, when any securities transactions treated it as suspicious financial transactions. Financial instruments - no money - there is also no concern.

From the above it can be concluded that, despite the statements by the authorities that the peak of the crisis has passed, and now the economy moves to a steady growth, the facts suggest otherwise. The cost of a barrel of oil fell, approaching the lowest level, which, in turn, led to a significant increase in the dollar. In this situation, the Russian government responded to the following expenditure budget reduction by reducing the "inefficient and unnecessary" costs. It is obvious that the economic crisis is gaining momentum, and is unlikely to be completed in 2016.

It was only in 2017 can expect economic growth, if effectively implemented the measures taken by the State at the continuing restrictions in the foreign economy.

Bibliography

1.             1. Gorshkova N.V., Lebedeva N.N. /Interaction of the state and society in the system of tax relations in the Russian Federation//. Gorshkova N.V., Lebedeva N.N. Bulletin of Volgograd State University. Series 3. Economics. Ecology, 2014, № 2 (21), s.245-251

2. Voronov A. S., Kruglov V. N. Prospects of cluster development of innovative economy of the regions. /A. S. Voronov, V. N. Kruglov// Regional economy: theory and practice. – 2014. – No. 25. – S. 26-32.