Ryzhkova Julia Anatolevna, Sergeeva Elena Sergeevna,

PenzGU, Penza



Analyze the dynamics of rouble to dollar rate in the years 1993-2012


Fluctuations of the rate of exchange influence the interrelation of export and import prices, the competitiveness of firms, the profit of the enterprises. Sharp fluctuations of the rate of exchange strengthen instability of international economic, monetary and financial relations in particular, cause negative socio-economic consequences, the loss of the ones and the winnings of other countries.

The problem of fluctuations of the rate of exchange is very topical for Russia, as the part of Russia in the world economy in 2010 was about 3.7%. More than half of GDP is generated through exports[1].

Let's analyze the dynamics of rouble to dollar rate in the years 1993-2012, the state at the end of the month particularly [2].


Pic 1. Dynamics of rouble to dollar rate for 1993-1997

Pic 2. Dynamics of rouble to dollar rate for 1998-2012


Let's analyze the first decade (pic 1). It is characterized by a crisis state of the Russian economy, in which the rate of exchange of the ruble decreased steadily, stimulating the rising of  inflation.

The currency crisis in the autumn 1994, the culmination of which was the "black Tuesday" of 11 October 1994 (in a day rate of us dollar increased from 2833 to 3926 rubles for a dollar), was a sign to a sharp change of the macroeconomic policy in Russia. The main task was to decrease the inflation at all costs. In the foreign exchange field the decision provoked the introduction of the exchange rate band regime in 6 July 1995 - official limits of fluctuations of  ruble to dollar rate. Fixed limits were supported by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the help of interventions on the stock exchange and the interbank foreign exchange markets [3].

On January 1, 1998, the denomination of  ruble took place,  in ratio of 1000 to 1.

In the conditions of the currency crisis of August 17, 1998, the ruble to dollar rate fell in half a year period for more than 3 times - from 6 rubles for dollar before the default up to 21 rubles for dollar in January 1, 1999. The government had to lower and significantly widen the currency corridor - up to 6 - 9, 5 rubles. However, there was a sharp fall of ruble (in three weeks it he fell for 3,3 times in comparison with the level of the 17th of August). In fact the currency corridor stopped its activity, and the rate of exchange of ruble became floating again.

the was an increasing of rouble to dollar rate in the years 2000-2003, reaching a level of 31,88 rubles to a dollar. From 2003 till 2008 the dollar rate varies from 19 to 22 rubles for a dollar. On the 16th of July 2008 there was a maximum drop of the ruble to dollar rate with regard to the denominated rouble of 1998:  23,148 rubles for a dollar. But in half a year was noted the maximum rate of  dollar (36,43 rubles for a dollar). After that it decreased and continued to change with some ups and downs, and for today the price is 30,53 rubles for a dollar.

Decrease or an increase in the rate of exchange has both positive and negative sides. In particular, by decreasing in the exchange rate of the national currency( if there's no opposition from other factors) exporters either receive export award while exchanging of foreign currency, which has risen in price in the national currency, which, by-turn has fallen , or have the ability to sell goods at prices below the world average. But at the same time decrease of the rate of exchange of the national currency affects the rise in imports, which stimulates the growth of prices in the country, the decrease in import of goods and consumption, or the development of the national production of goods instead of imported ones. The exchange rate reduces the real debt in the national currency and increases the burden of the external debt denominated in foreign currency. Unprofitable becomes the export of profits, percents, dividends, which receive foreign investors in the currency of the host country. These profits are used for buying goods for domestic prices and their subsequent export.

By increasing the exchange rate of the national currency the domestic prices become less competitive, the effectiveness of export falls that can lead to stagnation of export-oriented industries of the national production. Imports, on the contrary, increases. Stimulated by the inflow into the country of foreign and national capital, increases export of profits on foreign investment. Decreases the actual sum of the external debt denominated in foreign currency.

As Russia is a major exporter of resources, on the one hand it is more profitable to reduce the rate of the national currency, on the other - the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate will also contribute to the improvement of the economic situation, encouraging the banking sphere, in particular: stimulates the banks to borrow abroad, leads to the active inflow of funds of the population. In any case, the process of falling or strengthening of rouble exchange rate should be controlled by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the plan of economic development of the country should be developed depending on the situation.



List of references:

1.                 Выступление Министра Э.С. Набиуллиной на совместном заседании коллегий Минэкономразвития России и Минфина России, г. Москва, 25 апреля 2011г. // URL:                                          http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/press/news/doc20110426_06?presentationtemplate=docHTMLTemplate1&presentationtemplateid=2dd7bc8044687de796f0f7af753c8a7e&WCM_Page.ResetAll=TRUE&CACHE=NONE&CONTENTCACHE=NONE&CONNECTORCACHE=NONE

2.                 ЦБ РФ, база данных по курсам валют // URL: http://www.cbr.ru/currency_base/monthly.aspx

3.                 Международные валютно-кредитные и финансовые отношения: учебник / Под ред. Красновой Л.Н. – М.: Изд-во «Финансы и статистика», 2005, 3-е изд., - 576 с.