Vasyluyk Andriy

Babiak Zhanna

Spiral development of the machine-building in Ukraine.

In the article the cause and effect dependences between the volume of production and wages ( wage fund), investments and wages (wages fund), investments and volume of production, investments and wages (wage fund), profit and wages (wages fund), have been proposed.

Global world economic system is of non-linear, cyclic or spiral nature, which causes its structure to be of both temporal and spatial dynamics of the world economic system in whole [1].

Ups and downs of the business activity are unpredictable and irregular, that is why the cycle is a natural form of the economy development.

As these economic ups and downs, which are the essence of the economic cycle, play the essential role in the fluctuation of economic (business) activity, economists call them business ones.

Material basis of the renual process recurrence (middle cycles) is the physical renewal of the main means of production, means of labour in particular [2].

Because of it the branches, which manufacture the means of production, perform system-forming (basis) function in the recurrence mechanism. They reflect the development recurrence not only of production, but those of exchange, distribution and consumption in their organic unity.

Nowadays the nature of modification is not limited only by the change of downs (recession) and ups (booms) durations. It is the configuration of the cycle which changes, and it makes it to be different from that classical one, that is, from the cycle of free competition. The amplitude of the economic activity, fluctuations have decreased: phases of economic fallings become shorter, at the same time the production growth phases-more durable. In addition, the fluctuation amplitude of the volume of production has decreased.

Under factorral analysis are only such indices, which are interrelated according to the principle of determination, because only in this case the cause and effect dependence takes place. Thus the indices of the production volume are resultant and factoral ones are those of the number of workers. Desendence similarity must be identified not only between the volumetrical and quantitive indices, but between the volumetrical and qualitative ones. The indices of the labour productivity, which are found as the result of indices correlation of production, but not vice versa.

Such indices, which are interrelated according to the principle of determination, are under the factor analisis, because only in this case the cause and effect dependence takes place. The cause and effect dependences between the volume of production and wages ( wage fund), investments and wages (wages fund), investments and volume of production, investments and wages (wage fund), profit and wages (wages fund) and duration (years), which are of spiral form, have been proposed by us.

Besides, conical non-convergent spiral can be treated as the classical one. If the conical non-convergent spiral is as the movement from chaos to order, the convergent spiral on the contrary, from order to chaos, but cylinder spiral shows natural dialectic development as the unity and conflict of opposites.

The lines, which are not described by the algebraic equation, are known as transcendental. These lines include sinusoid, tangensoid,graphs of exponential and logarithmic functions. Spirals are transcendental lines too. For example, the Archimedes spiral equation in the Cartesian coordinates system.

Analysis of investigation

The nature of wage fund (F) spiral dependence on the volume (V) of the sold products in the the machine-building (Fig.1) (commensurable indices) in Ukraine shows the linear dependence, except 2011 year, when unsufficient growth of the production volume corresponds to the decrease of the wages fund. The indices of the same order or with the difference of one order belong to the commensurable ones. According to our expectations after recession in 2014 activisation will follow with the further growth in 2017 year. Previous turn finishes in ihe“sink” and of the next spiral turn as a cycle starts. The nature of the spiral turn of the wages fund (F) dependence on investments (I) (commensurable indices) shows the growth phase with the transition to pick in 2008 year and sharp falling phase in 2009 year with the loop of right-side turn (unsufficient activisation till 2010 year), after which the left-side turn follows, which is characterized by the decrease of both indices till now.

F, 10⁹ hrn

Fig.1. Spiral dependence of the wages fund (F) on the volume of the sold products (V) in machine-building of Ukraine.

The points of the curve correspond to the following years: 1-2004, 2-2007, 3-2008,

4-2009, 5-2010, 6-2013.

Fundamental indices spiral schemes with the cause and effect dependences have been proposed by us. Similar to the fundamental electric schemes,which do not correspond to the real form and sizes of the scheme elements, the mentioned above indices have the order difference up to 10⁶ hrn, but represent the interdependence of such indices.

The spiral turn of the average wage dependence on the volume of the sold products (Fig.2) is mostly similar to that of classic, because one of the indics (average wage) does not decrease. This spiral turn shows sharp transition of activation of activisation into the growth(expansion), which is provided by the transition of the linear dependence of the y=kx-type till 2007 year into the cubic one of the y=kx³ –type with the further falling (crisis), which is provided by the negative parabolar of the y=-kx² –type and at the threshold of the falling (2009 year) becomes of the hyperbolic dependence of the y=k/x-type. The following activisation is seen in 2010 year, being unsufficiently raised in 2011. and further falling (crisis) up till the “sink” in 2014 year, here the turn from 2009 till 2014 corresponds to non-convergent spiral.

The spiral turn is described by the equation of the y=10⁶ (kx+kx³ –kx² +kx) –type, which was obtained by the “combining” of the mentioned equations for every phase.

Further prediction of these indices dynamics will show the raise from 2015 and transition into the pick in 2017 with the following falling (recession) till the “sink” in 2019,which is likely to exceed the indices in 2011 year. If the step between the picks (expansion) is 4 years, the step between the “sinks” is 5 years. The difference between the previons picks (1998 and 2007 years) is 9 years and between the “sinks” (2002 and 2009 years) is 7 years. Thus, the decrease of the cycle duration in general is noticed, the same the difference between the picks and “sinks”, here the difference between picks in two cases being less than those compared with the “sinks” difference.

Discrepancy between the decrease of wages fund and simultaneous growth of the average wage in some cases is explained by the decrease of the workers employed at the machine-building enterprises, hired workers, partial modernization of the enterprises, and in some cases by the increase of the working hours.

Fig 2. Spiral scheme dependence of the average wage (A) on the volume of the sold products (V) in the machine-building in Ukraine.

The points of the curve correspond to the following years: 1-2004, 2-2007, 3- 2008, 4- 2009, 5-2010, 6-2011, 7-2013, 8-2017.

Dependence of the average wage on investments (Fig.3) shows right-side turn of the spiral. Such turn of the spiral shows smooth transition of activisation into the growth (expansion), which is provided by the linear dependence of the y=kx-type till 2008 year with the further falling (crisis), which is provided by the negative parabola of the y=-kx² –type and in the threshold of the “sink” (2010) with the creation of the lower loop and becomes of the hyperabolic dependence of the y=k/x-type. The following unsufficient boom is seen in 2011 year with the further falling-crises in 2014 year.

If the step between picks (expansion) is 3 years, it is 4 years between the “sinks”. According to the spiral turns dynamics the phase of activisation can be predicted in the next 2015 year and the phase of growth with the transition into the pick in 2017 year with the further falling (recession) till the “sink” in 2019 year, which is likely to exceed the indices in 2011 year.

Fig 3. Spiral scheme dependence of the average wage (A) on the investments (I) in the the

machine-building in Ukraine.

The points of the curve correspond to the following years: 1-2004, 2- 2007,

3-2008, 4-2009, 5-2010, 6-2011, 7-2012, 8-2013, 9-2017, 10-2019.

Falling of the turn of the wages fund dependence on the volume of the sold products in the machine-building of Ukraine is sufficiently greater, than that of the average wage dependence on the volume of the sold products. But starting from 2009 year the rate of growth of the wages fund exceeds the rate of growth of the sold products volume for both Ukraine and the region, which is caused by the inflation spiral coincidence.

The characteristics for all dependences (Fig.1-Fig.3) is the decrease of the second turn after the pick and the “sink”, which corresponds to the falling convergent spiral. I-V, V-F, I-F dependence dynamics is of similar nature, that is why it corresponds to the following sequence of activity: investments-volume of production-wages fund, provided they are commensurable.

The growth of economic indices corresponds to the decrease of upper steps and broadening of lower ones (semi-ellipsoid type of the spiral), such, for example, as it is demonstrated by the dependence of the net profit from the volume of the sold products. Generalised conclusion on both macro- and microlevels of the mechanical-engineering development according to the analysis of all pairs of cause and effect relations ( except small venture “Bigma”) is their linear dependence till 2007-2008 years and correspondence to the sequence of stages.: investments-volume of production-wages fund, and the violation of this sequence on the second turn of the spiral on the micro-levels up to now.

Carried out investigations of numerous enterprises made possible to conclude: large enterprises are characterised by the broadening of the production of vertical and horizontal diversification of 3, 4 conditions with the elements of the 5-condition; small and middle busnesses-broadening of production of horizontal and conglomerate diversification of 3, 4 conditions with the elements of the 2-condition and smaller than for large businesses elements of the 5- condition.

Literature

1. Joseph Quinlan , Ehiwario Efeyini, Jemes Medaglio, Dylan Meola, Andriy Vasylyuk.- 101 Things every investor should know about the global economy.- Bank of America Corporation. New York. Private Wealth Managerment ARTWNSA7. BRO-10-13-0277. 01.2014.- 223 p.

2. Vasylyuk A.P. Efficiency of the machine-building activity on different levels. (A.P.Vasylyuk //Visnyk Podillia,-Khmelnitsk.-KhNTU, Economic Sciences, v.3.-№3, 2011.-p.113-118.

1. Vasyluyk Andriy External doctoral candidate of the Ternopil Technical University

Title Research Analyst at Bank of America

2. Babiak Zhanna, PHD Assoc.Prof.of the Ternopil Technical University

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