From economic war to economic peaceful

As we knew the war economy as a set of measures taken by the State or group of States to turn its economy around that war production service, so that the provision of economic resources to ensure the continuity of state violence. These includes rationing of goods and products, and follows the conscription or national service policies, and raise the tax rate and the redistribution of resources, And other things that the state is doing to re-consider its economic activity, and make the necessary adjustments following the plan aimed to serve the war effort as a whole.

In Syria before the revolution economic system it may not be complicated. Everyone knows the economy is limiting traffic circle on a certain number of names, and they contain specific patterns of production, That's probably easy to control the system since the beginning of the revolution joints lives of Syrian citizens, starting from a loaf of bread and a drop of oil, and the end of the salaries and wages, in doctoring a clear military benefit while retaining centralized economic decision and the liquidation of the exclusion of industrialists and traders and the seizure of their property.

In the opposition-controlled areas, there is no bright central and the state of instability, pushing civilians towards submissiveness to the only source of livelihood of the food basket, Overnight many of the warlords who exceed format similar to or perhaps beyond what the system is doing with all available aid money, and weapons, effects, and the falsification of documents and related documents, All that remains of the infrastructure to come. Not to mention the seizure of some factions by force on the core oil and gas wealth.

All this under the sovereignty chaos and lawlessness, governance and differing visions of belonging between the spot and the other editor of Syria, and the blockade in some areas of the stifling authority.

We may be said that the opposition represented by official institutions have not adopted within four years, a relatively long as a period, a system or an economic pattern, at least, even the simplest of formulas, there is no cultivation, and local, and the narrow ranges (except in a few a few experiments and initiatives eligibility) , Not attempts to appear as an authority able to control the border crossings as a source of income, not visions of productivity projects. Every faction of the day, it is all affiliations, looking for the source of guaranteed his stay, the source qualify the ownership and control of the management of spent.

All of this brings us to ask questions on ourselves first and on the road around the ocean, starting with us as individuals, we can exchange ideas, going to representatives of power, right down to what would be considered an economic authority destination. To create a new economic climate within which can move in these exceptional circumstances to Syria and the Syrians and the transition to a peace economy.

These questions and introductions received knowledge and freedom of expression organized by the «noise» magazine, with the participation of the magazine «Our Lady of Syria» forum, in its sixteen in the city of Gaziantep, Turkey, physical, economic and researcher in political science and contributes to the establishment of the Civil Alliance "contactless. To talk about the prevailing war economy in the country, and the ways to transition to peace economy.

And we will start our Speaking approach is depending on the physical principle general " "Big fragmentation similar to a small parts," noting that "what happened in Syria was quite similar, the system disintegrates into smaller systems thereof,

This opposition would also; the approach here is based on comparing conditions during the rule of the system now. «Adding that "based on the war to rally the country to its economy, is the type of ancient wars. Which lead to nation-building now wars are much more complicated process, ranging process of the internal and external factors, talk here about war and not for the revolution, In the light of lack of negligence or omission of any other factors. The war in Syria, according to the international classification, is a new war, based on a complex partnership between the actors, This partnership of interest among those which lie in the continuation of the war, because they have access to the gains due to the continuing crisis and not due to expire, so it has become the common interest of everyone in the continuation of the war, not to stop it .

In the characterization of the situation by saying: "until the system is no longer able to continue in the solution of peace, and is therefore reluctant to reach a state of peace, and the war economy under the new circumstances, it is more than being an internal war, and is working on identity factor, and turn from a struggle for rights to a request for authority as the identity. The model is refined, as happened in Bosnia, for example. The new war also include the use of others to weaken the economic strategies, and if we go back to the roots of the Syrian conflict, It is certain that the political conflict, but there is also a socio-economic problem, especially in marginalized areas, because the neo-liberal policies adopted by the regime that led to the marginalization of a large number of citizens, This was demonstrated during the lifting of government subsidies on fuel oil, for example. If we compare the results now between the demands of freedom and dignity and the state of affairs, IT delves into the economic and social roots, so we are talking about a very complex crisis, and things are not going in the direction of stability or improvement in the economic situation, and therefore the complex crisis need parallel solution complicated.

The economic factor should be a big part of any hypothetical solution, I do not think there is a solution without attention to the economic factor, it estimated that the Syrian national economy is losing $ 150 million a day, and this is a big loss. If we tried to resolve the conflict in Syria, according to estimates by research and studies centers, we offer four dollars acted in a state of war, in exchange for one dollar in the event of peace.

Regarding the conditions predisposing war economy, "Cannot grow and reproduce the existence of an informal economy, and therefore the economic sanctions imposed on the informal economy, which affected the economy in Syria and caused the two years 2015 and 2016 a loss of 23% of GDP, and of course that what we called the emergence of the war economy of the floor. For example, the government is no longer able to use the transport sector because of the sanctions on the Ministry of Transport, so they decided to licensing of new companies close to him, and give them the infrastructure of the state, they began going the transport sector and to reap the profits, which were collected in the back to the treasury system, too. "

The second factor for the emergence of the war economy : "It is the collapse of the economy and high unemployment rate, and this is what makes a big chunk of citizens prepared to enter into a war economy circle, , Because they are looking for alternatives to the collapsed formal economy, and these alternatives are altered, so they are dependent on the state of crisis and war. Even if relief aid eventually becomes linked to war and crisis, too, is no longer part of the solution. "

"The regime shift to plan for him, instead of planning for each of Syria and, in parallel, on the other hand is able to do the job it did not appear, and therefore there are no longer any party holds the interest of the country. In addition to the collapse of the legal infrastructure and lack of discipline of the border all of these reasons put us in the center never Somalia on development in the Arab world index, while the Syria occupies center after Saudi Arabia directly to the same index in the year 2011. This may lead to a period after The Affect of Somatization ambitious Syrians. The absence of this year planning, also led to a sharp rise in extreme poverty index, while the unemployment rate rose to nearly 80 percent dropout rate from schools for more than 80 Percent .

Specifically the war economy, characterized by decentralization, nor does it centralizes the economy as well, and is accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate, and needs to be an external hands to develop and nutrition, As it characterized by dynamism and production of forms of help to continue even in the absence of the rest of the factors leading to the war. In the war economy, people are trying to change their lives mechanisms so as to ensure their survival, there are those who traded electric Charities and some of them work and some of smuggling relies on aid and other aspects of trade under war conditions.

The black economy of the most dangerous types deployed in conditions of war economies, including kidnapping for ransom and smuggling of human beings and members of forging identity documents and trade effects All of these actions behind it organized networks, some of which exist in the home and some of them abroad . More seriously, that "the Syrian conflict distinguish from other conflicts in the world, the existence of cases of siege. For example, Eastern Ghouta under siege from all sides, except for arrivals camp crossing and crossing Harasta to Barza neighborhood despite his palace (30) meters away, as is considered as a transit camp arrivals border crossing. . Exist between the control of forces on both sides of the crossing zones, free trade zone, including profiting network of dealers and military forces by the regime and factions there, This crossing has led to conflicts between the factions because of the large returns that result from the passage of goods and even arms operations, and with full knowledge of the system.

What raises the question is not to allow the system to enter the relief aid to the eastern Ghouta, but the answer is simple, since the entry of such assistance will lead to flood the region with goods, which in turn would lead to lower prices, and the decline in the ownership of the goods that enter the system control areas to the control of factions areas. At this point, too, that the "state of siege was repeated in the old Homs, as there were regime troops and their allied militias and intelligence services on the dominant sectors and the entrances to the old Homs, Allowing them to manipulate prices of goods or goods that were smuggled into the besieged area, while there were other areas under opposition control, where factional fighting has announced to lift the siege of the old Homs.

On the positive, is that we "If you look at any point or another area emptied from all sources, where possible agriculture is no longer, because of fertilizer and seed and other loss, and as a result, the only chance to live in the shield now is to join the army free. So not everyone who joins the army free now pay for political reasons, but there are economic reasons. Dash and (the organization of the Islamic State) recruited thousands of young Syrians in this way, He was smarter than everyone else, with the development of two types of Allegiance, two allegiance succession and sell the war, and the latter means that the person is fighting with the organization in exchange for financial returns without being committed to the ethics of the organization. And good to entrants to war for economic reasons easy to get them out of the cycle of war, which joined it, more people joined them for ideological reasons. Therefore, a manufacturing keys are secure economic opportunities and operational projects requires stability, not war, to drive people to seek peace and the search for him across the socio-economic granting integrated to protect citizens.

And we stated that "during the years of the crisis,we have not made any political profit yet, to any party, so there must be an economic lever at every level, from securing large-scale projects to invest in small-scale projects and the introduction of aid to the besieged areas Because the latter help to break the war economy by flooding the besieged areas of goods and merchandise, as well as enable the private sector by creating a formal alternatives, the most important requirement is the existence of an agreement paving the political solution and the presence of the concept of the state, because the absence of the state difficult political solution, in addition to the need to change motives actors in the permanence of the state of war .

The war economy can be challenged by refashioning a peace economy, using our aid to promote livelihoods and jobs rather than dependency. This is what Syrians ask for. Target such assistance to the areas most vulnerable to Isis expansion and you can constrain that expansion with communities resistant to its agenda.