Gusev E.G.

Vladivostok state university of economy and service, Russia

synergistic model of selection of projects

for development of regional touristic complex

Nowadays most regions of Russia have their own long-term programs of economic development. Of course, these programs are very different in their development and relevance. Undoubtedly, such work is of great use in the context of emphasizing of key problems which retard development of region and analyzing prospective lines of development on the basis of resources of specific region. At the same time during the whole period of Russia’s contemporary history (since 1930) not a single regional development program was ever realized. Analysis of realization of Far East and Transbaikalia development programs can be found in the work of well-known economist Minakir P.A. [3]. To a great extent it is caused by non-fulfillment of budgetary financing plan. It is stated in the work as one of the basic conclusions that it is necessary to focus on large objects and branches which provide for the maximum synergistic effect. In author’s opinion, such approach is justified both for regional economy and separate branches.

Due to its geographical conditions one of the most perspective branches for Primorsky region is tourism. This fact determined the author’s recent scientific interest in building models which allow optimizing structure of regional touristic industry development [1, 2]. These models enable to perform selection of projects possessing in aggregate maximum synergistic effect for development of touristic industry.

It is supposed that general volumes of financing are established for each project from which the most perspective ones are selected:

(1)

where - necessary volumes of annual financing of i-th project , - duration of realization of the i-th project (in years).

The following parameters should be set for each project:

- amount of consumers attracted in the first year after realization of i-th project ;

- amount of consumers attracted at maximum capacity of objects realized in the i-th project ;

- term of leading the project to maximum capacity.

It is assumed that increase in number of consumers during years from 1 to is subject to linear law. This supposition does not limit the general manner of arguments since in this case any nonlinear function can be represented as piecewise linear. Parameters for each project are estimated if all other projects are not realized.

However, some projects in combination can possess considerable synergistic effect. Presence of synergistic effects is set by a number of additional parameters. Formally, each combination of realized projects is set by binary vector, . Elements of vector are determined by condition:

(2)

Synergistic effect is seen when set combination of projects is realized.

Volume of financing for all projects is divided into year’s periods. If planned period for realization of all projects is equal to G years, then:

, (3)

where is financing volume in year j .

Calendar plan for selected projects can be described by a set of binary variables X:

, (4)

where i – number of project ;

j – number of year in planned period

, (5)

Total number of consumers attracted after realization of selected projects at the point of their reaching maximum capacity inclusive of synergistic effect acts as objective function determining selection of projects from submitted portfolio.

Synergistic effect is shown by hypothetical example represented by three projects. Figure 1 shows amount of attracted consumers at launching three projects separately, in one, four, and five years respectively.

Figure 1. Number of consumers in the course of realization of separate projects

Figure 2 shows objective functions with and without synergistic effect. The result of solution is not only selection of group of projects providing for maximum inflow of customers but also calendar plan of realization of these projects. With the help of this model one can research efficiency of both projects directly connected with tourism and projects which deal with other branches.

Mathematical model is realized in the form of special program. Task solution is divided into a number of stages; on each of them linear programming task with binary variables is solved.

Figure 2. Quantity of customers in the course of realization of all projects with synergistic effect and without the same.

At present moment other variants of synergistic model with various types of objective functions. For instance, social effect is of great importance for tourism.

Perferences:

1. Martyshenko S.N. Models of formation of positive structural changes in regional tourist complex/ S.N. Martyshenko, N.S. Martyshenko, E.G. Gusev //Region: economy and sociology. — 2007. — No. 4. Pp. 166-177.

2. Martyshenko S.N. Optimization models of restructuring of regional tourist complex // Mathematic methods in technics and technologies: Collected works of XX International scientific conference. May 28-31, 2007: In 10 volumes. — Yaroslavl, — 2007. — V. 8.: — Pp. 98-103.

3. Minakir P.А. Regional programs and strategies: Far East // Region: economy and sociology. – 2007. – No. 4 – Pp. 19-31.