Экономические науки/15.Государственное регулирование экономики

PhD Sergeev P.A.

Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy

and International Relations, Russia

CLIMATE CHANGE AS A FACTOR OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY

The legendary physicist Stephen Hawking pointed out humanity in deadly threat [1], which call into question its survival on the planet. Among them are marked with possible epidemic [2], increasing the likelihood of which is closely linked to large changes in climate, which in many cases can be attributed to climate catastrophe.

So, the research report from Norway [3] forecast for Europe region an increase in the number of extreme weather events, including heat waves, increased periods of drought, forest fires, floods, storms, etc.

Indeed, the temperature records during 2016, which was characterized by periods of anomalous heat [4] very soon moved into its opposite. For example, in winter of 2017 almost the entire territory of Spain due to strong gusts of wind, snow and cold weather emergency [5] as a result of abnormal cold in Bulgaria for the first time in 60 years of frozen Black Sea (Burgas city), in some parts of the country, the temperature reached up to minus 29⁰ C [6].

However, the summer of 2017 turned to southern European countries even more difficult. Due to the ongoing wildfires engulfing heat here huge territory, the situation was close to ecological catastrophe [7, 8, 9]. It is obvious that under intense and growing environmental pollution, reducing airborne oxygen, prolonged droughts and desertification noted degradation of flora and fauna.

At this migrating birds and insects [10] may be supplemented by the spread of infections [11] and in increasing the sustainability of pathogenic bacteria to antibiotics increases the likelihood of epidemics. That is, the person is defenseless before infection, increasing mortality, chronic diseases are manifested in an increasingly early age.

That is why the World Health Organization (WHO) points to the need to develop new antibiotics for bacteria. This 12 species that are the most significant health damage, of which three are recognized as critically dangerous to humans -Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacteriaceae [12].

And if in the near future, humanity will not find the means to combat them, the threat of a repetition of medieval Europe becomes real. Plague (atra mors) not only demonstrated complete helplessness of contemporary medicine, but also has affected the political map of the region changed the genetic portrait of the population.

The ongoing climate migration (as a result of the scarcity of water resources and the destruction of traditional agriculture) could turn into a "great migration", which creates a high probability of ethnic conflicts can provoke local and regional hostilities.

Water and food shortages, problems with maintaining an effective agricultural and industrial production, power generation and infrastructure natural flow will require additional material, financial and other resources. In the face of continuing instability global economy, it increases the likelihood of the crisis on local and regional levels.

World political leaders it's time to overcome their differences, remembering that the remaining time for humanity to address the accumulated global problems is extremely limited.

Literature:

1. Stephen Hawking: This is the most dangerous time for our planet, 01.12.2016

1.//URL: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/01/...

2. Kharpal A. Stephen Hawking says humans must colonize another planet in 100 years or face extinction, 05.05.2017 // URL: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/05/...

3. Suvatne S.S. Slik blir klimakatastrofen i Europa: Eksplosjon av flom, brann og torke, 27.04.2016 // URL: www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/.../60369633.

4. European Union supports Portugal with urgent assistance to fight forest fires, 10.08.2016 // URL: http://ec.europa.eu/echo/news/...

5. Почти на всей территории Испании из-за непогоды объявили режим ЧП, 18.01.2017 // URL: https://news.mail.ru./incident/28466354/?frommail=1.

6. Черное море в Болгарии замерзло впервые за 60 лет: видео, 13.01.2017 // URL: https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/klimat/22333-chernoe-...

7. How global warming is changing when Europe’s rain arrives, 10.07.2017 // URL: http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/10/climat-change-and-europe-s-water-supply.

8. Emergenza siccita in tutta Italia: acqua gia razionata in 20 comuni della provincial di Roma, 24.07.2017 // URL: http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/...

9. Гроза и сильный ветер: стихия за полчаса разнесла Стамбул в клочья, 28.07.2017 // URL: https://mir24.tv/news/16259923/...

10. В Японии впервые красный огненный муравей укусил человека, 27.07.2017 // URL: https://iz.ru/624991/2017-07-27/...

11. Глобальное потепление способствует распространению вирусных инфекций, 04.02.2016 //URL: https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/klimat/17830...

12. ВОЗ: 12 самых опасных бактерий, которые нам угрожают, 28.02.2017 // URL: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/81892/print.