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Candidate of economic Sciences, Kabashova E.V.
PREDICTION INDICATORS OF MONEY INCOME OF
THE POPULATION ON THE BASIS OF TREND MODELS
Scientific prediction is an integral component of all human activity,
including economic, necessary for the development strategy and plan the
activities of the organization, the industry and the country as a whole.
Prediction of indicators of incomes of the population means a scientific
study, aimed at identifying their dynamics in the future to reflect changes in
the factors influencing them.
Prediction of incomes is intended to solve the following tasks:
- to determine the future values of the income of the population;
- choose activities and economic policy with regard to the forecasting
assessments;
- to identify factors that influence the incomes in the future.
One of the statistical methods of prediction is to calculate the
prediction based on the trend and variability of the dynamic series to date.
The trend model is one of the simplest forecasting models used in
practice, which is a regression model in which the dependent variable are the
indicators of incomes of the population, and the independent variable – time [6].
Because trends in time series of socio-economic indicators, including
indicators of the monetary income of the population, is very diverse and the
trends can take a variety of forms.
Prediction performance of monetary incomes of the population by the trend
model includes the following steps.
Stage 1. The
choice of indicators that characterize the income of the population, based on a
qualitative theoretical and economic analysis of the essence of the phenomenon
being studied.
To predict the performance of monetary income of the population we have
selected the following indicators: real income, per capita money income of
population, average monthly accrued nominal wage, average pension, the share of
wages in the money income of the population, the share of social benefits in
monetary incomes of the population, the poverty rate, coefficient of funds and Gini coefficient [4].
Stage 2.
The choice of equation of trend and estimation of its parameters.
To recognize the type of trend used the graphical method and the maximum
value of reliability of approximation (R2).
Stage 3.
The calculation of point forecasts of indicators of incomes of the population.
As the period of forecasting of indicators of incomes of the population
selected a five-year period from 2017 to 2021, as on the recommendation of
statistical science term removal of the projected level in time from the end of
the calculation base of the trend should be not more than one third of the
duration of the base.
Point forecast is the forecast value of the index, which is determined
by substituting into the equation of the trend values of time t.
Stage 4.
The calculation of forecast errors (average (standard) error and marginal error)
of indicators of incomes of the population.
Stage 5.
Determination of the confidence interval of the forecast.
Point forecast and confidence intervals of the forecast of indicators of
incomes of the population of the
Table 1 Forecast values of indicators of monetary incomes of the
population
of the
|
Years |
Error of forecast |
The lower limit of the forecast |
Point forecast |
The upper limit of the forecast |
|
|
mean |
ultimate |
||||
|
Real money income, in % to the previous year |
|||||
|
2017 |
2,49 |
5,37 |
91,7 |
97,1 |
102,5 |
|
2021 |
2,93 |
6,32 |
85,9 |
92,2 |
98,6 |
|
Average per capita monetary income of the population, rubles |
|||||
|
2017 |
607,93 |
1313,13 |
29277,9 |
30591,0 |
31904,1 |
|
2021 |
715,00 |
1544,39 |
36421,0 |
37965,4 |
39509,8 |
|
Average monthly accrued nominal wage, rubles |
|||||
|
2017 |
575,09 |
1242,19 |
27549,4 |
28791,6 |
30033,8 |
|
2021 |
676,37 |
1460,96 |
34138,6 |
35599,6 |
37060,6 |
|
The average size of pensions, rubles |
|||||
|
2017 |
431,27 |
931,55 |
11127,4 |
12059,0 |
12990,5 |
|
2021 |
507,22 |
1095,60 |
13943,6 |
15039,2 |
16134,8 |
|
The share of wages in monetary income, % |
|||||
|
2017 |
1,65 |
3,57 |
23,6 |
27,1 |
30,7 |
|
2021 |
2,53 |
5,47 |
19,9 |
25,4 |
30,9 |
|
The share of social benefits in monetary incomes, % |
|||||
|
2017 |
1,23 |
2,65 |
18,4 |
21,0 |
23,7 |
|
2021 |
1,88 |
4,06 |
24,4 |
28,5 |
32,5 |
|
The level of poverty, % |
|||||
|
2017 |
2,00 |
4,31 |
3,6 |
7,9 |
12,2 |
|
2021 |
2,35 |
5,07 |
1,1 |
6,2 |
11,3 |
|
Coefficient of funds |
|||||
|
2017 |
0,59 |
1,28 |
13,1 |
14,4 |
15,6 |
|
2021 |
0,91 |
1,96 |
6,9 |
8,8 |
10,8 |
|
Gini Coefficient |
|||||
|
2017 |
0,010 |
0,022 |
0,380 |
0,403 |
0,425 |
|
2021 |
0,016 |
0,034 |
0,315 |
0,349 |
0,383 |
Thus, according to table 1, we can conclude that in the
- the rate of growth in real incomes will shrink by 1.4 per cent to 92,2
per cent (relative to 2020);
- the average income of the population will increase by 36,8% and will
be 37965,4 rubles per month;
- average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees of organizations
will increase by 37,3% and will be 35599,6 rubles [4];
- the average size of pensions will increase by 31,7% and amount to
15039,2 rubles;
- the share of wages in money incomes will be reduced by 10,9 per cent
and will amount to 25,4%;
- share of social benefits in monetary incomes of the population will be
reduced by 73,8 per cent and will amount to 28.5%;
- the level of poverty will decrease by 51,6% and will be 6,2%;
- the coefficient of funds will decrease by 44,3% and amount to 8,8%;
- the Gini coefficient will decrease by 15,7%
and according to the projected estimates it will amount to
In order to further improve incomes and the welfare of the population of
the Republic, the poverty reduction and differentiation of individuals and
households by income the following measures are necessary [1]:
- increase salaries of the public sector and improving the system of
remuneration of employees of state institutions in accordance with the
recommendations of the Russian tripartite Commission on regulation socially-labour relations;
- the development of the Republican agreement between the Federation of
trade unions of the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Republican associations of
employers of the Republic of Bashkortostan and the government of the Republic
of Bashkortostan;
- the gradual increase in the wages of low-paid workers to a living wage
of able-bodied population, changes in the structure of the consumer basket;
- implementation of control over the implementation by employers of the
legislation on minimum wage, the legalization of «shadow» wages;
- development of system of social partnership, maximizing the use of its
mechanisms in order to increase the level of remuneration, social protection of
workers and the total population of the Republic.
Literature
1. Resolution of the government of the
2. Zherebin V. M. Indicators of population
life quality / V. M. Zherebin // Questions of
statistics. – 2012. – N 3. – P. 25-36.
3. Ivanova E. S. Statistical study of the
dynamics of use of labor resources at the enterprise / E. S. Ivanova, E. V. Kabashova //
Modern trends in science and industry: proceedings of the III International
scientific-practical conference. 2016. – P. 252-254.
4. Kabashova E. V. The use of models of
multiple regression in the analysis of the incomes // Scientific review. Actual
problems and prospects of economic development: Russian and foreign experience:
scientific review teachers, postgraduates, masters and students of Russian
universities.
5. Kabashova E. V. Statistical research of
incomes and their differentiation in the
6. Kabashova E. V. Study of population
incomes: the philosophical aspect // Scientific provision of sustainable
development of agriculture: materials of All-Russian scientific-practical
conference.
7. Regions of