I.     Kovalenko1, O. Khaytovych1,2

 

1Public Institution “Ukrainian Anti-Plague Station” of

Ministry of Health of Ukraine,

 2Public institution “Crimean State Medical University named after S.I. Georgievsky”, Simferopol, Ukraine

 

Risk level of Anthrax in territory of Ukraine

 

The potential biological threat of anthrax can be realized as a result of human exposure to the natural pathogen (from natural foci or from infected animals), and under the influence of an artificially-grown pathogen (bioterrorism or biological weapons).

For determination of the potential biological threats to human infection with anthrax through contact with a pathogen from a natural environment, the analysis of registered anthrax permanently- unfavorable points (APUP) in the territory of Ukraine from 1918 to 2011 was conducted with using ArcGIS. APUP is a town (village), farm with premises and pastures, watering places, where cases of animal anthrax disease have been, regardless of the number and the statute of limitations. Thus, the APUP may include burial ground for animal refuse and place of animal death; they may become as a source of inadvertent human infection through contact with contaminated soil, and as a source of raw material for the unauthorized use (terrorism) or for creation of biological weapons.

 On the territory of Ukraine, the APUP located in 26 administrative regions from 27. Determination of “the proportion of trouble” with the calculation of the mistakes of arithmetic average (x ± Sx%) for every region allowed to make the differentiation of Ukraine regions into four groups by the degree of risk of natural biological threats (99.9% of data verification):

• high level of risk (“the proportion of trouble” - 71,4 ± 2,15%, P <0.001) – 3 administrative regions;
• the average level (43,5 ± 2,13%, P <0.001) – 15 administrative regions;
• low level (17,3 ± 2,21%, P <0.001) – 8 administrative regions;
• the zero level (0%) - 1 administrative region (pic.1).

Picture 1. Risk level of Anthrax in territory of Ukraine

It should be noted that the administrative regions with the highest risk are the areas that have the international boundary that can cause a biological threat for foreign countries.

The monitoring of anthrax permanently-unfavorable points at the national level is a prerequisite as for national as for global biosafety and biosecurity.

 

References:

1.            Применение статистических методов при анализе инфекционной заболеваемости (методическое письмо). – Киев, 1969. – 30 с.

2.            Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Fact sheet: anthrax information for health care providers. Atlanta: CDC. [Accessed 2 Dec 2011]. Available from: http://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/anthrax/anthrax-hcp-factsheet.asp

3.            Dragon D, Rennie PR. The ecology of anthrax spores: tough but not invincible. Can Vet J. 1995; 36(5):295-301.

4.            Titball RW, Turnbull P, Hutson RA. The monitoring and detection of Bacillus anthracis in the environment. Soc Appl Bacteriol Symp Ser. 1991;20:9S-18S.

5.            Schmid G, Kaufmann A. Anthrax in Europe: its epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and role in bioterrorism. Clin Microbiol Infect 2002;8(8):479-88.