Экономические науки/1.Банки и банковская система
PhD
Olga Stepanenko
Vadym
Hetman Kyiv National Economic University, Ukraine
Perspective Directions of
the Banking System’s Stabilization
Financial
crises are very distinctive for the modern economics.
Now there are banking crises, currency crises, bubbles and systems crises [1]. Macroeconomics factors that can be used to
describe the banking system’s position are considered in this work. Strategy
and the tools that can be used to stabilize the banking system are identified
in the work.
Crises are enough investigated in the world science
literature. But recent research of the identifying the causes of the crises and
the ways to overcome them had contradictory
results [1, 2, 3, 4].
The identifying of the fundamental macroeconomics
factors that can be
used to determine the dynamics of banking systems and financial markets have
the particular importance for the studying of the causes and consequences of
the global financial crises. This actual problem was stimulated the interest of
scientists, banking analysts, financiers to research the banking and
macroeconomics indicators for the stabilization of the banking systems.
Modern research of
the banking systems and financial markets are based on the use of a wide range
of mathematical tools: classical methods of mathematical statistics
(correlation-regression analysis, the method of least squares, spectral
analysis etc.), modern methods of mathematical modeling and statistics
(estimation system theory, neural networks, methods of analysis of chaotic
oscillations etc.), dynamic models based on systems of equations in partial
derivatives, system analysis models, discrete mathematics, game theory.
In the banking sphere the problem of the selection of
the basic macroeconomic indicators and the creation of the adequate models are
complicated by the next facts. The banking system is a very complex object
composed of subsystems with different characteristic parameters between which
there are large number of heterogeneous connections. Banking system development
consists of processes that are significantly dependent of many external
factors: legal, economic, social, political etc. Many of these factors are
difficult to formalize and establish the appropriate macroeconomic indicators.
Therefore the methods of system analysis are recommended to use. The most
important results in this area related to operations research. This approach is
based on the quantitative mathematical methods to evaluate the decisions
making. But the application of quantitative methods is possible only when
adequate mathematical models are existed. And the determination such models for
the controlling and stabilization of banking system are quite complicated.
Therefore the
dynamic stochastic model is proposed. The banking system includes a set of
interrelated microeconomic and macroeconomic indicators in this model. This
model allows us to investigate the emergent properties of the system which
arise at the macro level. But this model
reduces the possibilities for considering the specific
characteristics of particular commercial
banks and interbank processes of their interaction. But the last deficiency
isn’t especially important in the modeling of the banking system’s development
and stabilization.
Endogenous variables
in this model are divided into four groups – variables of liabilities, variables of assets, variables
of costs, variables of income.
Variables of
liabilities are business accounts, bank accounts, accounts of individuals,
individuals' deposits, deposits of enterprises, the clear involvement means,
attracted to banks issued securities and capital funds, retained earnings,
other liabilities.
Variables of assets are correspondent account in National
Bank, NOSTRO correspondent accounts, monetary assets and precious metals
deposits in the National Bank, loans to real sector, loans to banks, loans to
the public, credit debts, required
reserves of the NBU, securities and other assets.
Variables of costs are the costs for corporate accounts,
the costs for bank accounts, the costs for retail deposits, the costs for
enterprises’ deposits, the costs for interbank loans, the costs for issued
securities, the costs for the reserve forming for possible losses on the loans
and other expenses.
Variables of income are
income from correspondent accounts in banks, income from deposits in the Bank,
the income from loans to real economy, the income from loans to individuals,
income from loans to banks, interest income from securities, net income from
the revaluation of the currency, net income from revaluation of securities.
Exogenous variables
in this model are the average index
rate of U.S. dollar, the index of Interbank Currency Exchange, the index of the
chain of inflation, the level of the individuals income, the cash outside of
banks, the level of the output industrial production, the index of the producer
prices, norm of obligatory reserves on deposits in foreign currency, the
standard required reserves on individuals deposits in national currency, the
standard required reserves on enterprises deposits.
The banking system has a hierarchical structure. Some
elements of the banking system's model have vertical-horizontal structure.
Therefore the model of the banking system may be implemented as a result of the
development potential [5]. So the result of the potential of the banking system’s development
where
This
conceptual model of development and stabilization of the banking system takes
into account the impact of the external environment and changing the relations
between structural parameters caused by the banking technologies’ life cycle. So the potential of the banking system’s
development is defined as the abilities of the potentials’ system and their
actions to generate results by using the banking processes. The main components
of the model of development and stabilization of
the banking system are banking system’s capabilities and innovation potential.
So the problem of the research of development and stabilization of the banking system is very urgent
for today. It is necessary use the tools of mathematical modeling to solve it.
With these models it is possible to carry out experiments to investigate the
influence of various parameters on the system state and identify strategies to
obtain the best results for the banking system's stabilization.
References:
1. Інноваційні
технології антикризового управління економічними системами: монографія/
Рамазанов С.К., Надьон Г.О., Кришталь Н.І., Степаненко О.П., Тимашова Л.А.; під
ред. проф. С.К.
Рамазанова. – Луганськ-Київ: вид-во СНУ ім.В.Даля, 2009. – 584 с.
2. Батковський
В.А. Доларизація економіки України та її наслідки для економічного розвитку//
Теорії мікро-макроекономіки, 2008. - №29. – С.78-86.
3. Домрачев
В.М., Кульпінський С.В. Банківські кризи: причини виникнення і передумови
подолання// Вісник Київського національного торговельно-економічного
університету, 2005. - №5. – С.10-15.
4. World
economic outlook. Crisis and Recovery (April 2009). – Washington DC:
International Monetary Fund, 2009. – 195 p.
5. Степаненко
О.П. Моделювання ризиків банківської системи на макроекономічному рівні//
Соціально-економічні проблеми сучасного періоду України: стабілізація та
євроінтеграція: (збірник наукових праць)/ НАН України. Ін-т регіональних
досліджень. – Львів, 2010. – Вип.1 (81). - С.290-299.