Diba E.F.

Ekibastuzsky ingineering-technical institute named after K.I.Satpaev, Republic of Kazakhstan

Sanation government regulation of economy through economic security indices

At the end of the 20th century the economy of the former Soviet Socialist republics underwent unprecedented crisis for a peaceful time, accompanied by deformity of the economy structures, increase in property differentiation of the population, increase of level of poverty, disequilibrium of economy. About the size of the crisis, its threat to economic security on the macro level one can judge on the basis of economic security indices, which:

-         reflect economic security threats in quantitative forms;

-         have fast response and variability therefore they have more signaling capacity to alert the society, government and marketers about insecurity in connection with changes of macroeconomic situation, actions taken by the government in the sphere of economic policy;

-         function as indices not separately but as a whole, i.e. interact to a rather great extent.[1,2].

At present for economic security analysis it is used more than a hundred of index-numbers [3] characterizing almost all aspects of social and economic development of the country. At the same time when making the monitoring of the economic security threats to protect the national interests of the country in the economic field, it is necessary to expose recessionary limit points, but going above them threatens with destructive effects.  Hence, of all the great number of indices of economic security degree it is necessary to expose those which reflect these recessionary limit points. It is these indices used as economic security threshold values, as well as indices of crisis on macro-level. The list of indices may include a great number of quantity indices, which are differ widely in the content and methods of analysis. To our opinion the set of indices must be grouped as follows:

-         Indices showing the aptitude of the economy to sustainable development;

-         indices of stability of financial system;

-         Indices of social sphere;

-         Indices of foreign trading and foreign economic activity.

We propose the classification of crisis indices on the macro and micro level in the table 1 . If we compare   them with the actual economic indices of the corresponding level one can say about the preconditions of crisis up rise and also about measures taken by the government to reduce the crisis.[4]

Therefore, taking into consideration the specific nature of the present stage of social economic development of Kazakhstan, we can highlight the main tasks of science and practice in the field of ensuring the mechanism of economic security:

-         to determine the actually essential set of indices of economic security condition (on the level of a country , regions, industries and so on) taking into consideration their proper use and adjust the parameters of threshold values of these indices:

10 – 15 key indices (threshold values), which should be the basis for taking decisions in working out strategies of economic development of the country:

30 – 40 indices for the use in the similar purposes when forecasting the economic development of the country

-         to give to the worked out indices and their threshold values the status of approved and ratified quantitative indices on the government level, the observance of which must become the obligatory element of the governmental economic programs. In other words, they must be included in the State strategy of economic security. Otherwise it will be the threat for economic and social security.

Finally unsolved numerous social and economic problems of domestic enterprises may be transformed into political arrhythmia and under certain conditions can lead the society to the constitutional crisis and collapse of the state. So the national and economical security at all levels – the level of economical security of an individual, a household, an enterprise (micro level), a region, a sector (meso level), national economy (macro level), global economical security (mega level) depend on proper antirecession management.

Table 1

Crisis indices on macro and micro-level

Crisis indices on macro level

Crisis indices on micro level

Decreasing of GDP is more than 9% during 3 year period

                                       

steady growth of tax debts and payments in the rate not less than 10% per quarter of a year adjusted for inflation

Investment volumes in% to GDP is less than 25%

Long term failure of investments into production

The unemployment level according to the ILO  is more than 7%

Failure  of a company to restrain mass dismissals of skilled workers of primary occupation by reason of low wages

Proportion of the people, whose income is lower than the subsistence minimum is more than 7%

The occurrence  of strike sentiments in the collective body

The gap between incomes of 10% of most high yielding and 10% of least yielding population groups is more in 8 times

 Growth of back payments on salaries in the rate is not less than 10% per month

Inflation level per year is more than 20%

Scarcity of working capital for increasing the output of most advanced products

The outlay for scientific research is less than 2% to GDP

Growth of debts to companies of business environment in rate is less than 30% per year

The crime rate in amount of crimes pro 100000 of the population is more than 5000 events

The dramatic rise of  conflicts among the personnel

Internal debt size in % to GDP is more than 30%

Initiation of dissolution of the company by the principal shareholders, jointly owing more than 1\3 of shares

External debt size  in% to GDP is more than 25%

Group dismissals of middle managers

External borrowings share for covering budget deficit is more than 30%

High alterability of company’s reference variables from insignificant exposure   

Budget deficit in % to GDP is more than 5%

Irreversible malfunctions in the company’s activity and possible changes

Note: it is made up by the author on the basis of summing up the references [1,2,3,4]

 

         Today it is very important to solve such problems as adaption  of theoretical working outs of domestic and foreign science after necessary adaptation to our conditions for activity in the field of management; making a special approach to the management with allowance for and on the basis of peculiarities  of the country’s history,  business  conditions and mentality. It is also necessary to intensify the antirecession direction of management. Being ignored the warning signals resolve into crisis.  In most cases either the emerging problem isn’t checked out or insufficiently firm connections become the cause of the breakup of the company with one or some partners. However, the warning signal detection is not the guarantee of prevention of crisis.  The occurrence of warning signals is only the basis for prompt actions. The main government’s duty and it’s key functions consist of providing stability of the society, it’s self-protection  and development, the ward off of possible threatens for country’s security. Herewith the significant sense has prediction of just arising threatens but not the passive following the events.

Used literature:

1.     Baimuratov U.B. “National economic system”. – Almaty: Gylym, 2000. – 536 p.

2.     Barabin V.V. “Economical security of the country”. – M. : Avanti, 2001. – 354p.

3.     Orekhov V. I. “Antirecession management”. – M, INFRA -2006. – 544p.

4.     Statistical yearbook of Kazakhstan. Stat. collected book. – Almaty: Agency of statistics of the RK, 2009.