Diba E.F.
Ekibastuzsky ingineering-technical institute named
after K.I.Satpaev, Republic of Kazakhstan
Sanation
government regulation of economy through economic security
indices
At the end of the 20th century the
economy of the former Soviet Socialist republics underwent unprecedented crisis
for a peaceful time, accompanied by deformity of the economy structures,
increase in property differentiation of the population, increase of level of
poverty, disequilibrium of economy. About the size of the crisis, its threat to
economic security on the macro level one can judge on the basis of economic
security indices, which:
-
reflect economic security threats in
quantitative forms;
-
have fast response and variability
therefore they have more signaling capacity to alert the society, government
and marketers about insecurity in connection with changes of macroeconomic
situation, actions taken by the government in the sphere of economic policy;
-
function as indices not separately
but as a whole, i.e. interact to a rather great extent.[1,2].
At present for economic security
analysis it is used more than a hundred of index-numbers [3] characterizing
almost all aspects of social and economic development of the country. At the
same time when making the monitoring of the economic security threats to
protect the national interests of the country in the economic field, it is
necessary to expose recessionary limit points, but going above them threatens
with destructive effects. Hence, of all
the great number of indices of economic security degree it is necessary to
expose those which reflect these recessionary limit points. It is these indices
used as economic security threshold values, as well as indices of crisis on
macro-level. The list of indices may include a great number of quantity indices,
which are differ widely in the content and methods of analysis. To our opinion the
set of indices must be grouped as follows:
-
Indices showing the aptitude of the
economy to sustainable development;
-
indices of stability of financial
system;
-
Indices of social sphere;
-
Indices of foreign trading and foreign
economic activity.
We propose the classification of crisis indices on the
macro and micro level in the table 1 . If we compare them with the actual
economic indices of the corresponding level one can say about the preconditions
of crisis up rise and also about measures taken by the government to reduce the
crisis.[4]
Therefore, taking into consideration the specific
nature of the present stage of social economic development of Kazakhstan, we
can highlight the main tasks of science and practice in the field of ensuring
the mechanism of economic security:
-
to determine the actually essential
set of indices of economic security condition (on the level of a country ,
regions, industries and so on) taking into consideration their proper use and
adjust the parameters of threshold values of these indices:
10 – 15 key indices (threshold values), which should be the basis for
taking decisions in working out strategies of economic development of the country:
30 – 40 indices for the use in the similar purposes when forecasting the
economic development of the country
-
to give to the worked out indices
and their threshold values the status of approved and ratified quantitative
indices on the government level, the observance of which must become the
obligatory element of the governmental economic programs. In other words, they
must be included in the State strategy of economic security. Otherwise it will
be the threat for economic and social security.
Finally unsolved
numerous social and economic problems of domestic enterprises may be
transformed into political arrhythmia and under certain conditions can lead the
society to the constitutional crisis and collapse of the state. So the national
and economical security at all levels – the level of economical security of an
individual, a household, an enterprise (micro level), a region, a sector (meso
level), national economy (macro level), global economical security (mega level)
depend on proper antirecession management.
Table
1
Crisis
indices on macro and micro-level
Crisis indices on
macro level |
Crisis indices on
micro level |
Decreasing of GDP is
more than 9% during 3 year period |
steady growth of tax
debts and payments in the rate not less than 10% per quarter of a year
adjusted for inflation |
Investment volumes in%
to GDP is less than 25% |
Long term failure of
investments into production |
The unemployment level
according to the ILO is more than 7% |
Failure of a company to restrain mass dismissals of
skilled workers of primary occupation by reason of low wages |
Proportion of the
people, whose income is lower than the subsistence minimum is more than 7% |
The occurrence of strike sentiments in the collective
body |
The gap between incomes
of 10% of most high yielding and 10% of least yielding population groups is
more in 8 times |
Growth of back payments on salaries in the
rate is not less than 10% per month |
Inflation level per
year is more than 20% |
Scarcity of working
capital for increasing the output of most advanced products |
The outlay for
scientific research is less than 2% to GDP |
Growth of debts to companies
of business environment in rate is less than 30% per year |
The crime rate in
amount of crimes pro 100000 of the population is more than 5000 events |
The dramatic rise
of conflicts among the personnel |
Internal debt size in
% to GDP is more than 30% |
Initiation of
dissolution of the company by the principal shareholders, jointly owing more
than 1\3 of shares |
External debt
size in% to GDP is more than 25% |
Group dismissals of
middle managers |
External borrowings
share for covering budget deficit is more than 30% |
High alterability of
company’s reference variables from insignificant exposure |
Budget deficit in % to
GDP is more than 5% |
Irreversible
malfunctions in the company’s activity and possible changes |
Note: it is made up by
the author on the basis of summing up the references [1,2,3,4] |
Today it
is very important to solve such problems as adaption of theoretical working outs of domestic and foreign science after
necessary adaptation to our conditions for activity in the field of management;
making a special approach to the management with allowance for and on the basis
of peculiarities of the country’s
history, business conditions and mentality. It is also
necessary to intensify the antirecession direction of management. Being ignored
the warning signals resolve into crisis. In most cases either the emerging problem isn’t checked out or
insufficiently firm connections become the cause of the breakup of the company
with one or some partners. However, the warning signal detection is not the
guarantee of prevention of crisis. The
occurrence of warning signals is only the basis for prompt actions. The main
government’s duty and it’s key functions consist of providing stability of the
society, it’s self-protection and
development, the ward off of possible threatens for country’s security. Herewith
the significant sense has prediction of just arising threatens but not the
passive following the events.
Used literature:
1. Baimuratov U.B. “National economic system”. – Almaty: Gylym, 2000. – 536
p.
2. Barabin V.V. “Economical security of the country”. – M. : Avanti, 2001.
– 354p.
3. Orekhov V. I. “Antirecession management”. – M, INFRA -2006. – 544p.
4. Statistical yearbook of Kazakhstan. Stat. collected book. – Almaty: Agency
of statistics of the RK, 2009.