Экономика/8. Математические методы в экономике

Serkebayeva L.T

A.Baitursynov Kostanai State University, Kazakhstan

Factors influencing the poverty level

Global function of the state in market conditions is to create conditions of life support society. It is particularly important for the state to be able to reduce (or eliminate) the impact of negative factors on the socio-economic processes and simulate the impact of positive factors.

Ensure the identification of such relationships may correlation analysis.

Correlation, unlike functional shown only in a general and average weight and only observing. Economic value usually consist influenced by many different factors. Regularities do not appear in the economic sphere with the same accuracy and invariably, as in the world of inanimate nature. Therefore, when studying the relationship between economic indicators often have to resort to the correlation analysis.

In the simplest case, the correlation analysis explores the connection between the two measures, one of which is considered as an independent factor (x), and the second - as the dependent variable (y). The presence of the relationship between these parameters is established as a result of qualitative analysis to reveal the inner essence of the phenomenon under study and generating its causes. The very same correlation analysis for the quantitative measurement of the qualitative analysis. Thus, even before the mathematical calculation is considered established that the relationship between x and y can be characterized by a function y = f (x).

One of the first tasks of the correlation analysis is to establish the form of this function, that is, finding a correlation equation (otherwise it is called the regression equation) that best suits the nature of the study of communication. The regression equation - the most important part of the correlation models, and proper selection and estimation are the most important phase of the correlation modeling.

Simple equations that can describe the relationship between two variables is the equation of the line.

Equation of the line describes a relationship between two variables, whereby with the change of the independent variable at any constant dependent variable is changed to another constant value (in particular when x by one unit the value of y varies on a, units).

If the qualitative analysis to investigate the dependence allows straightforward nature of the relationship of two variables, this assumption is verified and then directly to the quantitative data.

To do this you must have a number of the actual values of the variable X and the corresponding values of the dependent variable Y. Since the correlation with sufficient clarity and completeness is manifested only in the majority of cases, the number of observations on which the model is constructed to be sufficiently large. It is believed that the number of observations should be at least 5-6 times the number of parameters of the equation.

Distraction measure of closeness of the connection between the indicators included in the model - factors, on the one hand, and the dependence of the index, on the other hand, is the correlation coefficient [1].

Closeness of the connection of the phenomena studied evaluates the linear coefficient of pair correlation for linear regression and correlation index for non-linear regression.

Poverty level, being part of the standard of living index, may depend on certain factors.

Using the methodology proposed in S.Kunitsa work "Modeling and Evaluation of differentiation in living standards in Kazakhstan."

Results of the study on the scale of the Republic of Kazakhstan held within the Kostanai region [2].

The factors influencing poverty reduction.

As a result of factor take a share of the poor, and as influencing factors, we choose a group of indicators of living standards, such as:

- Х₁ – average monthly nominal wages, tenge;

- Х₂ – minimum pension, tenge;

- Х₃ - average fixed state social benefits, tenge;

- Х₄ – GRP, tenge;

- Х₅ – unemployment, %;

- Х₆ – wages of workers of education, health and social services, tenge;

- Х₇ - number of small enterprises, units.

To determine the dependence of correlation analysis with the calculation of pair correlation coefficients.

The results are shown in Table 1.

Table 1 - Factors affecting the reduction of poverty and evaluation of communication through the pair correlation coefficients.

Year	У	Х1	Х2	Х3		Х4	Х5		Х6	Х7
2006	14,65	29249	6700	7204		387,3	-7,8		2895	21062
2007	9,95	37584	7236	8025		560,4	-7,5		2948	30356
2008	8,75	43903	7900	11990		704,3	-6,9		3328	32946
2009	6,5	49130	9875	12507		723,9	-6,3		3540	41208
2010	6,5	57268	12344	13628		856,7	-5,7		3974	49106
Pairwise correlation coefficients		-0,94	-0,80	-0,89	-0,95		-0,89	-0,83		-0,93

Judging by the pair correlation coefficients, the following conclusions:

- growth indicators such as the average nominal wage, minimum pension, the average size of the designated state social benefits, gross regional product, the wages of employees in education, health and social services, the number of small businesses, unemployment leads to poverty reduction in the region;

- the most significant influence of factors such as the average monthly salary, gross regional product, the wages of employees in education, health and social services.

It is clear that all of the above factors can be expressed in specific statistical indicators that can be used as criteria for determining the direction of development programs that impact on living standards and poverty in the region.

Therefore, an important aspect in enhancing the effectiveness of social assistance programs, it is advisable to use modeling techniques. Moreover, as the experience of foreign countries, the model underlying the assessment of living standards, may be used for the introduction of objective selection of families in need of assistance to improve the administration of social programs, computerization of data collection and information processing.

Measuring the level of poverty and the more evaluation and comparison - the process sufficiently conditioned. It is clear that the measure adequate standard of living of both the individual and the population - much more difficult than, say, the industrial output.

Most aspects of quality of life can be assessed only on the basis of indirect or contingent indicators. But, on the one hand, the level of life is important, for each individual and social development.

On the other hand, many of the characteristics of living standards are the result of decisions taken in the area of economic and social policy. It is in this respect, the level of life can be evaluated, and subject to regulation. Therefore, any concept and the corresponding system parameters can not claim to be exhaustive and absolute.

Please understand that this is just a system of indicators that can give some idea about certain aspects of human life and to serve the information for decision-making in the field of economic and social policies and the implementation of a development strategy that takes into account the interests of the person.

Literature:

1. Доугерти К. М. Введение в эконометрику: Инфра-М, 1999. — 416 с.

2. С.Куница. Моделирование и оценка дифференциации уровня жизни населения в Казахстане// Казахский экономический вестник, 2010, № 1-2, с.52-58

3. «Уровень жизни населения в Казахстане» Статистический сборник/ 2010 – 184 с. Под редакцией А.Смаилова