Экономические науки/12.Экономика сельского хозяйства
PhD Kateryna Prokopenko
State organization “Institute of the economy and forecasting of the
National academy of sciences of Ukraine”
Challenges and ways of development of agriculture under conditions of
climate change in Ukraine [1]
Currently
Ukrainian agroenterprises and small farms are operating under conditions
dictated by ongoing climate change. The first decade of this millennium has
brought increase in the frequency of extreme events, floods, hurricanes and
drought in large areas in Europe. One of the reasons for this is climate change.
Now
there is some uncertainty about the nature and duration of their impact,
potential scale and costs needed to counteract climate change or adaptation.
The actual changes in the climate system of the Earth are evidenced by numerous
observations and studies on rising global average air and ocean temperatures, increased
snowmelt lines and glaciers, changes in regional rainfall and nature of the
changes in the manifestation of natural disasters (including drought, heat,
rain intensity cyclones) that covered in the reports of the Intergovernmental
Panel on climate change and scientific publications.
In
the framework of the project of the University of Notre Dame, the Global
adaptation index (ND-GAIN) is determined for many years [2]. It generates forms
a ranking of countries by vulnerability to climate change, summarizes the level
of vulnerability of countries to climate change and other global challenges in
combination with its readiness to improve resilience to climate change. The aim
of the development of index ND-GAIN is helping businesses and the public sector
a better understanding of investment priorities to better respond to global
challenges and preventing them.
According
to the data of ND-GAIN in the ranking countries by vulnerability to climate
change and ability to withstand these changes, Ukraine is on the 62 place among
180 countries for the index ND-GAIN (57,6) (New Zealand has the highest the
index – 81,9, Eritrea – the lowest to 24,9). Since 1995, the index of the ND-GAIN for Ukraine has a stable growth
trend. This index is calculated on the basis of a vulnerability index and index
of readiness to improve resilience. The vulnerability index for Ukraine in the
recent period improved over the last few years it has decreased from before
0,328 to 0,339. This index measures the overall vulnerability by assessing the
following components - food, water, health, ecosystem service, human habitat
and infrastructure. The worst scores were given to items: capacity of
agriculture, water dependency ratio, dam capacity. The index of readiness to
improve stability (takes into account three components - economic readiness,
readiness management and social readiness) for the last period fell from 0,511
to 0,480, primarily due indicator on political stability and non-violence, and
the level of innovation.
Despite
the fact that Ukraine is not included in the most vulnerable regions of global
warming on our planet, however, the effects of climate change become more
tangible for its territory. According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological
center over the last 20 years the average temperature in summer has increased
by 0,8°C compared to the climate norm (1961-1990 years) and the average winter
temperature - about 2°C. Mountain regions are characterized by somewhat lower
growth rate average annual temperature: 0,7°C in the Ukrainian Carpathians and
0,3°C - in the Crimean Mountains. It led to a change in the rhythm of seasonal
effects, the frequency and strength of extreme weather conditions (abnormal
heat in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, record snowfall in the West and in
the Central part of the country in March 2013, etc.).
The
analysis showed that in all recent years of the XXI century for the period from
May to September highly arid conditions were observed in the South and
South-East of Ukraine. Each year, in each period there has been local droughts in
the South and South-East, in Central and Eastern parts of the forest-steppe
zone and across the Steppe zone. A severe drought occurred in 2007 and 2009
with a sharp deficit of precipitation and covered a large territory of Ukraine
and lasted for about three months, especially arid was May-June 2007 and
July-August in 2009 [3].
Now
the extreme situation in the grain sector of Ukraine has not place. But
probably, if the conditions of
heat and moisture availability will go beyond those that observed in the second
half of the XX century, to maintain a balance of food in the state we need
special attention to problems of agricultural production that arise in
connection with the warming of global and regional climate.
Unlike
temperature, annual precipitation in Ukraine has changed slightly (3-5%). With
minor changes in annual precipitation the redistribution of their seasonal and
monthly values has occurred. The largest changes are observed in autumn. That fall,
especially in October, there is a significant increase in their number (about
20%). Winter precipitation was slightly less. There is changing rainfall
patterns: an increasing number of threat and natural precipitation, and more
storm component, especially in the warm period. The duration of the cold period
has decreased by 5-28 days: it starts on 5-14 days later and ends at 5-13 days
earlier. Reduced the duration of stable snow cover and in the last decade in
some regions, it is not formed at all.
Accordingly,
the duration of the warm period increased by 4-10 days in Polesie and
forest-steppe and 17-26 days in the steppe, Crimea and the Dnieper lowland. The
warm period starts in the spring at 15 to 20 days earlier and fall ends in 1-6
days later. Early warm period determines early restoration of vegetation, at
the same time, therein lies of damage to plants by late spring frosts. The
danger of their influence is quite significant, since at the time of their
occurrence (mainly – in May) plants are already well developed and are
vulnerable to exposure to low temperatures. Growing period (with average daily
temperature 5°C and above) starts 2-6 days early and last for 2-6 days later. The
growing season has increased by an average of 4-13 days.
According
to the forecasts outlined in the Fifth report on the assessment of climate
change, in the European territory, which Ukraine belongs, the average annual
temperature for 2035 will increase between 0,3-2,3°C, up to 2065 – 0,4-3,2°C
and in 2100 it may increase the maximum at 4°C. Under favorable conditions it
is likely to reduce to 0,3°C.
Also, the terms of this scenario, during 2016-2035 rainfall is expected to
decrease to 8%, 2046-2065 – 9%, 2081-2100 – to 14% [4].
It
should be noted that Ukrainian farmers believe that climate change is taking
place in Ukraine and it has a negative impact on agriculture. Among the climate
changes that farmers feel directly were considered the following [5]:
–
changing in temperature regimes in the spring, which led to the shift of the
beginning of the sowing campaign in recent years. So, the sowing campaign
starts about two weeks earlier;
–
increasing temperature extremes and anomalies: low temperature in this May, a
large difference between day and night temperatures, snowless winters, long hot
summer. Some agronomists say that conduct temperature monitoring and recording
for the past dozen years, and that, in their opinion, the current phenomena may
be the effects of global climate change;
–
changing in rainfall. If earlier the so-called "zone of risky
agriculture" because of the drought in the South of Ukraine, now the
farmers of Cherkasy already feel her shifting to the North up to their region.
In the area where never carried out irrigation of the fields, now there is such
a need, although the necessary water resources for this;
–
strong winds that hinder timely submission of plant protection products and lead
to wind erosion.
Because
of adaptation to these changes depends largely on the profitability of growing
crops, Ukrainian farmers consciously change their farming practices and call
the subsequent adaptation measures that are very widely used:
–
shifting in time of sowing, respectively, and all other stages, depending on
weather conditions. Some of the farms, using the fact that the harvest is over
before sowing winter time to carry out additional operations for fertilizing
and weed control, in particular the sowing of green manure;
–
faces the task of maintaining moisture in the soil, which farmers learn to use
the properties of soil ecosystems, which are formed under the condition of
reducing the depth and intensity of cultivation and availability of plant
remains from previous seasons. Thus, the technology loosening of the surface
soil (mini-till) is used, and in southern regions, where there is no soil
compaction such as in the north, without plowing technology (no-till).is the
justifiable use These technologies can reduce soil erosion and restore its
fertility;
–
using of seeds resistant to drought and high-temperature varieties or hybrids.
Common practice is the annual purchase of seeds of maize and sunflower in
international companies, while seeds of wheat and other crops are often of
Ukrainian origin. One way or another, but it's safe to say that choosing seed
Ukrainian farmers take into account in its resistance to climatic factors;
–
through adverse weather conditions (strong winds, temperature) some farms
suffer the execution of works at night, when their performance may be more
convenient or more efficient.
References:
1. The study was supported by National
Academy of Sciences of Ukraine within the framework of departmental theme
"Resource development opportunities of the agricultural sector of economy
of Ukraine" (state registration number 0114U001638)
2. Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index
[online] Available at: < http://index.gain.org/> [Accessed 17 October
2016].
3. Лялько В. І. Дослідження проблем
посушливості на території України з використанням наземної та супутникової
інформації / В.І.Лялько, Л.О.Єлістратова, О.А.Апостолов // Український журнал
дистанційного зондування Землі. – 2014. – № 2. – С.18–28.
4. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K.
Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and
P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA. p.1-1535
5. Адаптація до змін клімату в сільському
господарстві України [online] Available at: <
http://ecoclubua.com/2015/07/adaptatsiya-do-zmin-klimatu-v-s-h//> [Accessed
17 October 2016].