Zh.S. Aubakirova, Candidate of History
D.Serikbayev East Kazakhstan state technical
university
Ust-Kamenogorsk, Republic of Kazakhstan
REGIONAL FEATURES OF FERTILITY AND
MORTALITY
IN KAZAKHSTAN (1999-2009)
Demographically,
fertility is an important sign of differentiation. Separation of the regions in
terms of birth rates will reveal differences in the processes of human
reproduction, especially to determine the overall development of demographic
processes.
We can
distinguish two periods if we consider the preceding decade 1999 under study:
Stage I: 1989-1999 the period of intense fertility
decline, the rate of decline increased. So, if in 1989 the total fertility rate
was 23.0‰, then in 1994 it lowered to 18.6‰ (i.e., five- year drop in the total
fertility rate of 19.1%), and in 1999 it was 14.2‰ (compared to 1989 it decreased by 1.6 times), which describes
the low birth rate on Urlanis and
Borisov scale. As for the total fertility rate, in 1989 it was - 2.803, and in
1999 - 1.79. The level of total fertility rate of 2.15 required for the
replacement of generations Kazakhstan surmounted in 1996. In fact, at that time
formed a restricted type of population reproduction was formed. In 1999 the net
reproduction rate in the country amounted to - 0.8which corresponded to a
narrowed the type of population reproduction. Increased mortality became a
steady demographic phenomenon since1991. That period is characterized by the
most intensive decrease in the rate of natural increase of Kazakhstani
population. As we can see, if in the
previous decade the overall rate of natural increase dropped to 5.5%, in
1989-1999 it lowered by 71.4%. (Table 1)
So,
from 1989 to 1999 There was a fall of the total fertility rate of up to
23.0 % 14.2 % per year (69%), age-specific fertility rates from 9.2 to 53.7
(76%) total fertility rate from 2.803 to 1.79 (67%) (Table 2). This substantial
decline in fertility will be a long-term impact on all demographic
characteristics of the population of Kazakhstan.
As we
consider the causes of fertility decline in this period lie primarily in the
changing age structure of the population. There was a significant reduction in
the number of women of childbearing age. In addition, marriage structure of the
population influenced negatively in that period. Intensive emigration also had
a significant impact on the process of reproduction. As aa rule, the
working-age population migrated e.g. a childbearing one. And, of course, the
major changes occurred in the socio-economic situation in the republic affected
the state of fertility.
Table 1
- Crude birthrate, mortality, natural increase and infant mortality in
Kazakhstan (1989-2009) [1]
|
Years |
Number
of births ‰ |
Number
of deaths ‰ |
Natural
increase ‰ |
number
of children died before the age of 1 year per 1,000 of live births, ‰ |
|
1989 |
23,0 |
7,6 |
15,4 |
25,3 |
|
1999 |
14,2 |
9,8 |
4,4 |
20,7 |
|
2009 |
22,5 |
9,0 |
13,5 |
18,4 |
In 1999
the total fertility rate was 1.79. The existing level of fertility provided the
reproduction of the population only 83.3%. Over 20 years (1979-1999) the rate
of reproduction of the population decreased by 1.7 times. Let’s come to stage
2.
Table 2
- The dynamics of fertility in Kazakhstan (1989-2009) [2]
|
Years |
Number of births
(thousands) |
Total fertility
rate (‰) |
Age specific rate
of birth |
||||||||
|
15-19 |
20-24 |
25-29 |
30-34 |
35-39 |
40-44 |
45-49 |
15-49 |
Cumulative rate
of birth |
|||
|
1989 |
382,3 |
23,0 |
47,4 |
214,8 |
153,1 |
89,8 |
41,9 |
12,7 |
1,0 |
92,2 |
2,803 |
|
1999 |
211,8 |
14,2 |
33,1 |
130,9 |
98,3 |
58,7 |
25,7 |
5,8 |
0,5 |
53,1 |
1,79 |
|
2009 |
358,8 |
22,5 |
31,4 |
157,0 |
157,7 |
110,8 |
60,8 |
15,3 |
0,7 |
80,9 |
2,66 |
Stage II: 1999-2009 were the years of
substantial increase in fertility. So, if in 1999 the total fertility rate was
14.2‰, in 2005 – 18.4‰, in 2009 it was already 22.5‰. Over the past 10 years
the index increased by 37%, which is according to an Urlanis and Borisov scale
corresponds to the average level of fertility. As for the total fertility rate,
in 1999 it was 1.79, and by 2009 it reached a level of 2.66. By 2005 the level
surpassed - 2.15 required for the replacement of generations. This total fertility
rate ensures the reproduction of the population by 124%; we can celebrate the
replacement of the restricted type of reproduction by the simple type of
generation replacement. Accordingly, natural population growth rate increased
from 4.4‰ per year to 13.5‰ (threefold or 225%).
Regional
zoning in 1999 singled out the regions in
the territory of Kazakhstan, which were ranked by the level of fertility
in the following way. Cluster 1 included only Mangystau, with the total
fertility rate of - 2.1 (a sign of clustering made total fertility rate,
consider the value of fields to determine the level of security replacement
rate by region). Consequently, West ethnic and demographic area had the highest
reproduction rate in the country - 126%. However, this level of fertility
provided only a simple replacement of generations. By 2009 the situation has
substantially improved. And it is Mangistau region that can be noted for the
highest total fertility rate - 3.8.It increased by 1.8 times for 10 years,
which confirms that ranking is correct and Mangistau region has its own
specific demographic development way differing from other regions and from
average values.
Cluster
2 combined Akmola (1.7), East-Kazakhstan (1.4), Kostanay (1.4) and the
North-Kazakhstan regions (1.4). This year, the Akmola population reproduces
itself by 79% in the remaining three areas – only by 65%. The average total
fertility rate for the class is 1.48, which means that in the Northeast ethnic
and demographic area had a steady birth rate in the January 1, 2000 and provided
the reproduction of the entire population by 67%, which is actually 2 times
smaller than in the Western zone. By 2009 this index rose in all areas to 2.19,
2.07, 1.70, and 1.72 respectively. In general these are the lowest birth rates
in the republic both in 1999 and in 2009. Average class fertility rate was
1.92, which ensures the reproduction of the population by 89% and provides a
restricted type.
Cluster
3 has the middle fertility rate. Aktobe oblast this indicator had 1.7 (ensuring
the reproduction of 79%), while Almaty had 1.9 (ensuring reproduction of the
population by 88%), in Zhambyl - 2.0 (93%) and West Kazakhstan - 1.6 (74%). The
average value of the total fertility rate for this class is 1.8. Consequently,
in the South-West ethno-demographic area provided birth rate of its population
reproduction by 84%. However, by 2009 the birth rate and the improved birth
resulted in a primitive reproduction type. The total fertility rate Aktobe had
2.70, Almaty - 2.65, Zhambyl - 3.20 and Western Kazakhstan - 2.29. The average
class rate comprised 2.71, which ensures the reproduction of the population of
126 % and corresponds to the simple replacement of generations.
Cluster
4 has an extremely unfavorable situation because it has the lowest birth rate
in the republic, thus Pavlodar has 1.3 (the lowest figure the total fertility
rate in this area given, respectively, with the lowest level of reproduction
for the country - 61%), Karaganda has 1.4 (65%). The average value of the class
was 1.35, which means that the Central zone ethnic and demographic formed birth
rate of reproduction of the population by 63%. By 2009 this figure increased
slightly, as in the whole country and was in the Karaganda region - 2.04, in
Pavlodar - 1.98. In general, the class average is at 2.01, allowing the
reproduction of the population by 94% and remains at the narrowed type, but it
is closer to the simple replacement of generations now.
Cluster
5 is characterized by high levels of fertility. In any case, the total
fertility rate in the area provided a higher level required for the replacement
of generations. Atyrau region had 2.3
and provided a reproduction of the population by 107%, Kyzylorda - 2.7 (126%),
South Kazakhstan - 2.9 (135%) which was the highest rate in the republic. The
average class index was 2.63. Accordingly, in the southern ethnic and
demographic area the steady birth
rate provided a reproduction of the population by 122%. In1999-2009 there was a
significant increase of the fertility rate and in 2009 Atyrau had 3.29,
Kyzylorda - 3.42, South-Kazakhstan - 3.71. The average total fertility rate for
this cluster was - 3.47 and provided a reproduction of the population by 161%.
This zone occupies the 2nd place in the republic at the level of fertility.
A wide
range of factors influenced the regional differences in birth rates. We denote
the most basic:
-
Intermediate determinants of this process such as nuptiality, lactational
infertility, abortion and contraception which directly determined the patterns
of fertility and had a different character and intensity in the regions;
- The
traditional socio-economic factors such as the level of urbanization in the
regions, the standard of living, education, women's employment;
-
Migration influenced greatly on the processes of reproduction and fertility.
The rate of migration mobility is different in the regions;
- In
general Age structure of the population and the contingent of childbearing
women in the region is also differentiated;
-
Differentiation of the ethnic structure of the population is of great
importance;
- The
influence of ethnic and cultural contacts also played an important role;
-
Regional differences in the reproductive behavior of the population;
-
Historical differences in the level of fertility and reproduction mode.
At the
end of XX century there were negative changes in the dynamics of mortality in
Kazakhstan in all regions. In 1999 the East Kazakhstan region had the overall
mortality rate of 12.1‰ (the highest figure in the Republic in 1999), in
2009-12,67‰. In North Kazakhstan it reached 12.0‰, in 2009- 13.35‰( the highest
figure in the Republic in 2009), Akmola and Kostanay areas had 11.4‰, in
2009-12.35‰ and 12.89‰ respectively. The worst figures were in the
North-Eastern ethnic and demographic area. In1999 it had the most negative character in the Central Zone, and
this process ,in Karaganda the overall mortality rate was 11.6‰, in 2009 –
12.67‰, in Pavlodar – 10.5‰, in
2009-11.31‰). The relatively low mortality rate has remained in the
South Kazakhstan region (1999 – 6.8‰, 2009-7.01‰) and in Kyzylorda region (in
1999 – 7.4‰, in 2009 -7.22‰), South ethno-demographic area. The lowest total
mortality rate was in Mangistau region in 2009 (6.96‰) as compared with other
areas, Western ethno-demographic area.
The
basis of regional differences in mortality rates was also a range of factors
that influenced the differentiation process. They are as follows:
-
Differences in population age structure (the ratio of elderly and old people to
young);
-
Differences in the objective socio-economic conditions and living standards of
people, environmental conditions;
-
Differences in the number of immigrants, primarily of reproductive age;
-
Differences in the level of urbanization of the population;
-
Differentiation in the regions ethnic composition;
-
Differences in the historical conditions a particular type of reproduction;
-
Differences in behavioral and environmental variables that determine the
structure of this process in the region.
The
main causes of mortality in Kazakhstan were formed earlier last decade of XX
century, and the socio-economic crisis accelerated their dynamics greatly. The
fall in living standards and lack of adequate compensation has led to an increase
of chronic patients, and people with poor health in general. The health decline
of the population will lead to a further reduction in life expectancy in
future. The state of fertility and mortality mirrors the processes taking place
in society, the standard of living of its people, and their psychological
well-being.
One of
the important indicators of the nation's health is its infant mortality. The
infant mortality rate is a part of human developmental quotient.
In 1999
the infant mortality rate remained high for the Mangistau region, 33.2‰
(exceeding the average national rate by 38% or 1.6 times), Pavlodar region –
25.7‰ (19.5%). Over the past decade between the censuses (1989-1999) a
significant reduction in the number of deaths of children under 1 year occurred
in South-Kazakhstan oblast (by 35%) and reached a level of 19.9‰; in Atyrau
region by 31% and established at 21.2‰. In addition, Kyzylorda (26.2%), Aktobe
(25.4%) and Almaty region (33%) can be noted. Infant mortality rate has
increased over the period in North Kazakhstan (12%), Zhambyl (20.8%) and
Pavlodar (9.3%) regions [3].
In 2009
the highest infant mortality rate was noted in South ethnodemographic zone
(South-Kazakhstan oblast – 25.56‰, Atyrau -21.27‰ and Kyzylorda – 23.89‰). The
average class rate was 23.57. The Western cluster took the 2 place in the rate
of infant mortality. In 2009, this
ratio is was 21.20‰ in Mangistau region. The 3rd place took the Central Zone.
The average cluster level was in that year 20.15‰ per year; South West Area had
18.74‰ and the lowest infant mortality rate was recorded in the North-East zone
(18.67‰) which was lower than the Republican rate of 20.76‰. Traditionally,
infant mortality is high in the regions with high birth rate.
The
infant mortality rate depends on the quality and timely measures of care and
organization of epidemic control measures. Disadvantage in infant mortality in
the country is closely connected with poor health status of women. There was an
increase of pathologies of pregnancies and births, deteriorating health of
newborns. One of the criteria the women's health state and quality of care
provided to them is the maternal mortality rate, which decreased by 11% in
Kazakhstan during the period from 1990 to 1999, but it remains still high compared to developed countries. In
1999 in the CIS countries, Kazakhstan ranked second after Russia in terms of
maternal mortality. The maternal mortality rate in the country amounted to 49.6
per 100 thousand people in Russia - 58.2, compared to Belarus - 20.4.
Considering
the dynamics of this ratio in 1984-1985 net reproduction rate was 1.400 (for
the urban population - 1.090; for rural one - 2.004), in 1989-1990- 1.286
(1.044 and 1.681 respectively). Unfortunately, the statistics of the factor was
not published since 1990. However, in 1989-1990 the net reproduction rate of
the urban population equaled to 1. Given that state of fertility in that period
deteriorated from year to year, we can assume that the net reproduction rate
was even less than 1.
The
total reproduction rate (gross rate) shows the average number of girls born by
a woman throughout her life. In 1984-1985 this ratio was 1.479 (for the urban
population - 1.139, and for the rural population – 2.149). For five years it
reduced to 1.344 (urban - 1.086, rural- 1.769) [4].
The
reproduction of the population reflects the interaction between two components
of its processes – fertility and mortality forming the general course and
direction of reproduction. At the same time, there is an inverse relationship:
fertility and mortality are experiencing some impact from this outcome and may
vary in response to changes in summary measures of population reproduction.
Reproduction of the population is a key component of forming the population,
while migratory activity of the population is of great importance.
Literature:
1. Women and children in the Kazakh SSR. St.sb. - Alma-Ata, 1985. -
p.14, Statistical Yearbook of Kazakhstan. St.Sb. - Almaty, 2000. - p.17,
preliminary data. In 2009. collection - Astana, 2010. - p.23.
2. Demographic Yearbook of the Kazakh SSR, 1990. - Alma-Ata, 1991.
p.95-96, Art. Yearbook Kazahstana.col. - Almaty, 1998.-p.47. Demographic art.
Yearbook of Kazakhstan, 1999.Col. - Almaty, 2000. p.12-15, Art. Yearbook of
Kazakhstan, 2003. - Almaty, 2003. - p. 20-21, Women and Men of Kazakhstan. -
Almaty, 2001. -p.14, preliminary data. In 2009. col. - Astana, 2010. - p.24.
3. Regional stat. Yearbook of Kazakhstan. - Alma-Ata, 1991. - p. 43
4.
Demographic Yearbook of Kazakhstan. - Almaty, 1997. - p.97.