Economic sciences/11. Logistics

Malaksiano M.O., PhD, associate professor,

Nizamova K.O.

Odessa National Maritime University, Ukraine

The analysis of stability for the projects of purchase of the bulk-carrier vessels for grain cargo transportations

When planning the work of shipping companies, along with providing a high level of expected economic indicators, the sustainability of these indicators provided possible stochastic changes in external conditions also plays a very important role. This is a difficult problem, because the conjuncture of the freight market depends on a number of factors, which have mainly complicated almost unpredictable trends. Moreover, the change in the production capacity of shipping companies requires a long time and substantial investments.

The current state of Ukrainian marine merchant fleet is characterized by a number of negative trends: a reduction of the fleet of merchant vessels, including vessels under the national flag; a decrease of foreign exchange earnings, received from the operations of the fleet, and, accordingly, a reduction of tax deductions. Analyzing the grain market, we can draw conclusions that increase in grain and oil crop production volumes in Ukraine is a priority direction of the agro-industrial complex. We can predict the further growth of grain export, and therefore the demand for its transportation is growing too. In the world maritime shipping market, there is an exacerbation of competition. The world maritime shipping market undergoes changes constantly. Thereby, a lot of shipping companies face the question of cost-cutting and increasing the ability to compete in the maritime shipping market [2].

The crisis of recent years has had a great influence on the economic situation in the world. To a large extent this has affected the state of the marine industry. Fluctuations in energy prices, fluctuations in the production volumes and the instability in demand for maritime transportations have caused a rapidly growing competition in the maritime shipping market. Shipping companies have had to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. Under the circumstances, the expenditure management and control over costs have acquired particularly important value for maritime shipping companies [1].

In order of protection shipping companies from possible costs in case of probable adverse conditions, all long-term projects should be subjected to a particularly careful analysis. Therefore, the very great practical interest is to construct and improve quantitative methods for forecasting possible risk events, assess their impact on the economic indicators of projects and develop arrangements allowing to avoid or reduce the consequences of probable adverse events.

In order to make informed administrative decisions, it is necessary to assess not only the average expected revenues of maritime shipping companies, but also to investigate the risks associated with these decisions. And in some cases, it makes sense to abandon the development strategies of maritime shipping companies which maximize the expected revenue in favor of other strategies which have on average a slightly worse economic indicator but are connected with fewer risks [2, 3, 4].

For the analysis, we selected several vessels-applicants. Operational and economic indicators were calculated for the selected vessel-applicants. Based on the analysis, preliminary conclusions on the effectiveness of the vessels work in terms of indicators of the time-charter equivalent (TCE) were made. Based on the received time-charter equivalent indicators, the net present value (NPV) indicator for the acquisition projects for each vessel were substantiated. But, as the situation on the freight market can undergo significant changes with the passage of time, before making the final choice of the best applicant vessel, it is advisable to investigate the sustainability of the efficiency indicators of the projects under consideration to environmental changes.

For research of the vessels sustainability, a statistical analysis of data of the freight and world grain market, as well as fuel prices and the prices of vessels of past years was carried out, and forecasts for the future were drawn up. On the basis of these statistical research, the sensitivity indicators of the efficiency projects of acquisition of vessels to possible external factors changes analysis was made. It allowed to make an informed choice of the project of acquisition of the vessel which has the best or almost the best level of expected economical effectiveness and at the same time is sufficiently sustainable despite the all possible fluctuations of external factors.

Based on the analysis, the methodology of selecting an investment project of replenishment of the fleet of the shipping company by purchasing a bulk carrier vessel, taking into account the level of sustainability of the investment project's efficiency indicators to possible fluctuations of external factors was proposed.

REFERENCE

1. АПК-Информ [Электронный ресурс] / Рынок мирового фрахта: депрессивное развитие в 2015/16 МГ и прогнозы на будущий сезон (АПК-Информ: ИТОГИ №7 (25)) / М. Герасимов – 2016. Режим доступа: http://apk-inform.com.ua/ru/exclusive/topic/1069811#.WhRmZkpl-Uk

2. Конференция организации объединенных наций по торговле и развитию ЮНКТАД / Обзор морского транспорта 2016. Издание организации объединенных наций – 2016. – С. 5 – 18, С. 62 – 63.

3. Малаксиано, Н.А. Использование многокритериальных оценок для уменьшения рисков при планировании ремонтов и замен сложного портового оборудования, функционирующего в условиях неполностью определенного грузопотока // Методи та засоби управління розвитком транспортних систем: зб. наук. праць. ОНМУ. – 2013. – № 1 (20). – С. 7 – 27.

4. Малаксиано, Н.А. Об устойчивости экономических показателей использования сложного портового оборудования // Актуальні проблеми економіки. – 2012. – № 12, Вип. 138. – С. 226 - 233.