Modern information technologies/ Computers and Programming

Master of the Department of Computer Engineering and Software, Romazanov T.K.

Kostanay State University A.Baitursynov, Kazakhstan

Mathematics - Statistical modeling as a method of financial stability

The functioning of the company, group of companies or industry is not only directed at maximizing financial results in the current period, but also to achieve other, not directly associated with profit, socio-economic objectives: sustainable development in the long term, improve the quality of life of the population; rationalization of natural resources; promotion of scientific and technological progress, growth and harmonization of economic development and so on. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation of the functioning of the enterprise, industry, or sector includes not only economic but also social aspects.

Financial stability of the company is an important factor in ensuring its competitiveness. The approach to determining the optimal financial the stability of the company, using regression and optimization models. The main results of the calculations confirming the suitability and benefits this approach.

Financial activity is one of the most important fields of activity company. The competitiveness of firms depends on the effectiveness of this activity. To assess the financial performance of the company is determined its financial stability. The determination of the financial stability firms mainly carried out through analysis of a plurality indicators or factors of financial stability and the coefficients the liquidity and solvency of the financial criteria are sustainability. Calculated values of these coefficients are compared with regulations. If they meet the regulations, the company is considered financially stable, having sufficient liquidity and solvency. The most effective method of determination company's financial stability is economic and mathematical modeling [2 - 4].

It is obvious that at the planning stage it is necessary to determine the maximum possible financial stability of the company. To this end, we have been posed and solved the problem of determining the optimal values of the coefficients of the company's financial stability. The problem was solved by the example of one of the enterprises of Kostanay region.

Solution conducted in two stages. In the first stage a list of financial stability coefficient was determined (the resultant factors) and selected factors directly and indirectly influence these factors (the variables). Then, according to the data for a number of years with the help of regression analysis of the number of independent factors were identified most significant, that is, having a strong correlation with the coefficients of financial stability. For each factor of financial stability was conducted regression analysis, regression equations are formed and calculated predicted values. The second stage was formed optimization mathematical model by which to determine the optimal values of financial stability ratios.

In the model as variables taken the required dimensions of the significant factors selected in the first stage, and as constraints - constraints on the coefficients of financial stability with the normative values of these coefficients on the right sides of restrictions and limitations on significant factors with average values (calculated from sample) in right sides of these restrictions. The optimality criterion is taken the maximum equity.

The calculations were performed using the packet analysis and search MS Excel solutions. Here are the main results of the solution of this problem.

A comparative analysis of the values of the coefficients of financial stability

Name	Optimal values	Average values for 5 years	The calculated values for the regression equations	Normative values
Coefficient financial stability, CFI	0,89	0,33	0,3	0,75<= CFI <=0,9
Coefficient Autonomy, Ca	0,53	0,18	0,26	Cа >= 0,5
Coefficient Financing, Cfin	1	0,29	0,33	Cfin >= 1
Coefficient debt, Cd	0,51	0,71	0,75	Cd <= 0,5

Table 1 shows that none of the financial stability of the coefficient values calculated as averages over 5 years and regression model does not correspond to the standard values. Optimal values of these coefficients is fully compliant with the standard values. The optimum value of financial stability coefficient (CFI) corresponds to the upper boundary of the normative values. Optimal values of the coefficient of autonomy (Ca), finance (Cfin), debt (Cd) .sovpadayut with a lower limit of the standard values.

Discrepancy values of financial stability coefficients, medium and calculated by regression equations regulations constitutes a violation of the relationship between equity, debt obligations on the one hand and on the other currency balance for CFI; own capital and borrowed capital to Cfin; own capital and the balance sheet total for the Ca; borrowed capital and the balance sheet total for the cd.

Thus, on the basis of the results of calculations can be concluded about the acceptability and benefits of the proposed approach to the definition of the company's financial stability.

Depending on the task list of the financial stability of the coefficients can be expanded and supplemented by factors of liquidity and solvency. The problem can be solved by a multi-criteria and stochastic [1, 2].

Bibliography

1. Vorobiev S.Y. Financial modeling of the enterprise, taking into account long-term objectives and risk factors / SY. Vorobiev // Proceedings IEAU / Financial problems of improvement of the state of the economy and enterprises in market conditions, Part 1, 2006.

2. Grachev A.V. Modelling of financial stability / A.V. Grachev // Financial Management. - 2003. - № 5.

3. Vardiashvili N.N. Mathematical modeling in making rational decisions / N.N. Vardiashvili // BUSINESS INFORM. - 2009. - № 2 (2).

4. John Taylor “Thoughts from the Integration Consortium: Enterprise Information Integration: A New Definition”.