Economic science /13. Regional economy

Ph.D.. Gabrel M.S.

SI «Іnstitute of Regіonal Research n.a. M.І. Dolіshniy of the NAS of Ukraine», Lviv

An estimation of quality of structural changes is in the regions of Ukraine

Quality of structural changes has a display in a structural effect, that comes forward as main in the estimation of structural changes. A structural effect is determined as a change of general efficiency of economy. Usually a structural effect is caused by changes in the structure of economy, the elements of that have different levels of indexes of efficiency. At the same time, a structural effect allows to estimate positive or negative influence of structural changes in the redistribution of constituents on the change of general efficiency. The result of structural changes is estimated from the point of view of progressiveness or regressiveness, and also their influence on a general increase is in economy.

Methods that allow to carry out research as structural changes and evaluate the real contribution of each economic activity in the macroeconomic dynamics include structural changes method (method shift-share). Essence of method in a classic kind consists in the quantitative study of differences in the change (increase or reduction) of employment between territorial units due to three factors: national trends, branch structure and specific regional terms of development [1]. We suggest to extend application of method of "shift-share" on research of influence of structural changes on the results of functioning of structure of economy of regions, to estimate their competitiveness and prospects of development on a gross value added and employment of population.

For the evaluation of the real contribution of every region in the dynamics of gross value added and employment of population in the cut of types of economic activity, and also the quality of structural changes are offered application of method of "shift - share" analysis. According to methodology of research the common change of quantitative index is decomposes on three components : national, branch and regional. The first takes into account the increase of the investigated index in the scales of national economy (factor of national part, that is National Share (NS)). Next components take into account certain changes. In particular the second component estimates a change due to the effect of compound (effect of proportion or branch (Industry of mix - MIX effect), that is under act of structure of economy. The third takes into account a change due to the effect of competition (the differentiated change (of DIF effect). She is folded in accordance with supposition, that the structure of economy of concrete region within every type of economic activity is developed better or worse in comparing to development in a national scale, id est takes into account progress of concrete region trends.

The general increase of index (Tlgh) is determined by using a next formula:

(1)

A national constituent allows to estimate the degree of influence of national factors on efficiency of functioning of structure of economy of regions by using a formula:

,

(2)

where E - a volume of gross value added, i - a region of country, r - a type of economic activity, 0,t – a sign of time

– national, branch, regional levels.

A branch constituent allows to educe influence of factors of development of structure of economy on the indexes of certain types of economic activity of region, that folded at the present structure of economy and it is determined by using a formula:

(3)

Due to the results of calculations the formula is compared the rates of change of type of economic activity are with general national and estimated the effect of structure of economy. This effect is positive in case that for the certain type of economic activity the rates of increase are higher than for an economy on the whole, if less in comparing to national, an effect is negative.

A regional constituent characterizes the internal competitiveness of structure of economy of region, that shows a degree to importance of certain type of economic activity for a region and his contribution to the regional economy. Contribution of her efficiency is determined by comparing of growth of region of certain type of economic with to the general growth of economy by using by using a formula:

(4)

Fulfilled the calculation a three constituents it is possible to educe hypotheses, that in 2013 most influence on the change of gross value added practically in all types of economic activity has a national constituent. Then by the level of influence there are a branch component and regional constituent (NS>MIX>DIF) [2,3]. Besides industry, construction and financial activities, where the greatest impact on gross value added had national and regional component (NS> DIF> MIX). More detailed influence of data of constituents on gross value added of types of economic activity it costs to consider in the cut of regions of Ukraine.

Maximal influence of national constituent on the change of gross value added of agriculture was felt by such regions as Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava and Kyiv. A minimum effect she had on the Chernivtsi, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Did not use the regional potential in agriculture and has the most negative indexes: Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. It costs to underline that in such regions as Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia and Kyiv are higher rates of increase of gross value added of agriculture in comparing to the economy on the whole. At the same time, not a single region of national effect felt in employment of agriculture. Although an industrial effect in employment of population had positive influence in relation to all regions. Maximal advantages on the whole had such regions as Odesa, Vinnytsya, Lviv. The Kyiv area had a maximal regional effect only. Maximal advantages on the whole had such regions as Odesa, Vinnytsia and Lviv. The maximal regional of effect only had in a Kyiv regions.

In 2013 the branch constituent of change of gross value added of industry had negative influence for most areas. Although the Dnipropetrovsk and the Donetsk regions provided the most additional increase of gross value added of industry exceptionally by using a national constituent on a background negative influence of branch component. That these areas have more subzero rates of development of industry in comparing to the national indexes, although not lag behind the pace of regional. At the same time proved most competitive the Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions that is specialized on industries of industry. Got the least effect the Ternopil and Chernivtsi regions. On the change of employment of population a national and industrial constituent had negative influence for most areas. At the same time the regional constituent of change of employment of population gave a positive effect, except the Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kirovohrad regions.

Summarizing, higher said it follows to specify, that in 2013 a national effect in all regions had exceptionally only positive character, both in the real sector and in service business. At the same time, plenty quantity of regions has minus indicator of MIX effect in real the sector of economy. At the same time regions had the least intraregional competitiveness in the field of services (to trade, health protection, education). Except for some areas in trade and health protection (Kirovohrad, Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkassy regions and Kyiv), and also education

Literature

1.Сlark W., Reynolds A. A shift-share analysis of reginal and sectoral productivity growth in contemporary Mexico. – Austria : International Institute for Applied Systems Analiysis, 1980. – 55 р.

2. Валовий регіональний продукт за 2013 рік: статистичний збірник / Державний комітет статистики України. К. : Державна служба статистики України, 2015. – 109 с.

3. Регіони України : статистичний збірник / Державний комітет статистики України. К. : Державна служба статистики України, 2015. – Ч. I. – 291 с.