SOME DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS NORTHERN REGION OF MONTENEGRO WITH A FOCUS ON THE AVERAGE AGE OF POPULATION

SOME DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS NORTHERN REGION OF MONTENEGRO WITH A FOCUS ON THE AVERAGE AGE OF POPULATION

Dr Goran Rajović

Vojvode Stepe 252, Belgrade

E-mail: dkgoran.rajovic@gmail.com

Telephone: 0038161/19-24-850.

Mr Jelisavka Bulatović

College of Textile Design, Technology and Management

Street Starine Novaka 24, Belgrade, Serbia

E-mail: jelisavka.bulatovic@gmail.com

Telephone: 003861/ 30-82-651

The fundamental determinant of overall social and economic development and progress of the human community as a whole is its population. The population is a carrier of industrial development because it represents production (labor) force that drives and directs all activities in the area. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the current developments, but also predict the development perspectives of Montenegro, it is impossible without reviewing and evaluating its demographic aspects.

The European Commission, based on projections of demographic changes in the period 2010 - 2060, presented the expected significant reduction in the population aged 15 - 64 in the European Union, followed by almost doubling the old population of 87 million (2010) to 150 million (2050) and 152.7 million (2060). As the effect of these demographic tendencies, demographic dependency ratio of the elderly population (the number aged 65 and over per 100 inhabitants aged 15 - 64 years) will be used for half a century is likely to double, from 26 (2010) to 52.5 (2060). Projections for Montenegro point to a significant increase in the old population (65 and over), from 12.5% in 2005 to 21.2% in 2050 in the medium-fertility variant ( Zdravković et al,2012).

Changes in the population development, who is incurred associated with the process of socio - economic development, and the retroactive effect on this development, whether it stimulate or slow down, depending on the specific characteristics of individual countries or regions (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1999). Namely, according to Mijanović(2015) deagrarization process of the 80s of XX century was strengthened in the northern region, emigration also strengthened, natural growth became negative (-2.8 ‰), so all resulted in a significant decline of population -36,893 until 2011. In the period 1981-2011only the municipalities of Bijelo Polje and Rožaje had population growth, all the others decline. The largest decline was recorded in the municipalities of Šavnik, Plužine, Petnjica, Gusinje and Žabljak. The participation of young population in the total population of the region declined to 26.4%, while the old increased to 21%, which indicated to a ripe old age population. In the deep demographic age is the population of municipalities: Andrijevica, Kolašin, Mojkovac, and in the deepest demographic age population of the municipalities of Podgorica, Šavnik, Plužine and Žabljak.

The subject of our interest in this paper is the average age of the Northern of Montenegro. Namely, the northern region of Montenegro administratively consists of 13 municipalities (Andrijevica, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Gusinje, Žabljak, Kolašin, Mojkovac, Petnjica, Plav, Plužine, Pljevlja, Plav, Rožaje and Šavnik)[1] it covers an area of 7.304 km², or 52.9% of the area of Montenegro. According to the results of the census of 2011 in northern region lived 177.793 inhabitants, or 13.9% of the state population. Average population density is 24.3 in/km², and it is significantly below the population density of Montenegro (45.3 in/ km²).

According to data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat (2011) the average age of the urban population in the northern region of Montenegro was 31.7 years, while the average age of the rural population was 40.2 years. The average age of the urban and rural population in the northern region of Montenegro is higher than the average at the national level, it is in the rural population in 2011 was 38.4 years and 37.1 years in urban. Demographic aging affects the size of the influx of young people in the working age, which causes changes in the labor force, as well as in the economic activity of the population. When it comes to demographics, and particularly the economic implications of aging population’s Northern region of Montenegro, then you should be especially alert to trends in structural - dynamic development of contingent working age population ( Rajović and Bulatović,2015). Namely,
According to the data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro – Monstat (2011) in the Northern region, 18.2% of the population is under 14 years, 61.9% of the population is aged from 15-64 years and 15.8% of the populations are over 65 years in relation to the total population of the region.

Our research evidence based on similar studies Živić (2003) suggests that the demographic implications of the aging population Northern region of Montenegro are complex, difficult and long term. Viewing average age of the urban population by municipalities would look like this: Žabljak 40.5,Pljevlja 39.0,Plužine 38.2, Andrijevica 38.1, Šavnik 37.9, Kolašin 37.6, Mojkovac 37.4, Berane 36.9, Bijelo Polje 35.1, Plav 35.6,Rožaje 32.2. The highest average age of the rural population was recorded in the municipality Plužine 47.5 years, followed by the municipalities: Pljevlja 46.6, Šavnik 43.9, Žabljak 43.3, Kolašin 41.3, Andrijevica 40.3, Mojkovac 39.1, Bijelo Polje 37.1, Plav 36.2, Berane 36.1, Rožaje 31.3. The average age of the male population in the Northern Montenegro was in 2011 according to data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro – Monstat (2011) 37.8 years, while the average age of the female population was 40.1. Viewing average age of male and female population by municipality’s Northern region of Montenegro looks like this: Andrijevica m - 39.2 w - 40.6; Berane m - 35.1 w - 37.7; Bijelo Polje m - 35.1 w - 37.1; Kolašin m - 38.7 w - 41.5; Mojkovac m - 37.0 w -39.7; Plav m - 35.0 w - 37.0; Pljevlja m - 40.4 w - 43.1; Plužine m - 42.3 w - 45.2; Rožaje m - 31.1 w - 32.2; Šavnik m - 40.5 w - 44.7; Žabljak m - 41.0 w - 42.8. In addition, aging causes an increase in general mortality rate in the age after 60 or 65 years, because it increases the participation of that population, the higher the risk of death in the overall population ( see Radulović,2006; Bakić and Mijanović,2008).

References

1. Zdravković, A., Domazet, I., Nikitović, V., (2012), Impact of demographic ageing on sustainability of public finance in Serbia, Stanovnistvo, 50(1), 19-44.

2. Wertheimer-Baletić, A., (1999), Population and Development, Zagreb: MATE.

3. Mijanović,D.,(2015), Depopulation in northern Montenegro causes and consequences, International Scientific Conference GEOBALCANICA,239-246.

4. Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore – Monstat (2011), Population census, Podgorica.

5. Rajović,G.,Bulatović,J.,(2015), Demographic Processes, Demographic Trends, Region Polimlje-Ibar, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences, 63, 63-75.

6. Živić, D., (2003), Demographic determinants and consequences of population aging Croatian, Revija za socijalnu politiku, 10(3), 307-319.

7. Radulović, J.,(2006), Economic development and spatial distribution of population in Montenegro, Proceeding of the papers from the scientific congress Demographic Movements and Population Problems, pp. 69-91, CANU, Podgorica.

8. Bakić, R., Mijanović, D.,(2008), The population of Montenegro in the second half of the XX century, Nikšić .

[1] This text analyzes the average age in the northern region of Montenegro, which cover the period from 2011, it is the time when the current territoryPetnjica was part of the municipality of Berane and territories Gusinje in composition municipality Plav. Namely, Petnjica was granted municipal status in 2013, and municipality Gusinje 2014. Thus, in the text of today's municipal territory Petnjica viewed within the municipality of Berane, and municipalities in Gusinje of the municipality of Plav.