MEASUREMENT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REPUBLIC
OF KAZAKHSTAN AND FEATURES OF THE NATIONAL MODEL
Yemelina Natalya1
c.e.s., associate Professor
1 Karaganda
Economic University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Karaganda, the
Republic of Kazakhstan
Marina Assanova2
PhD student
2
Karaganda Economic University of Kazpotrebsoyuz,
Karaganda,
the Republic of Kazakhstan
Correspondence: Marina Alexandrovna Assanova, Karaganda Economic University of
Kazpotrebsoyuz, Akademicheskaya str. 9, 100009 Karaganda, the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Abstract
Sustainable development
management includes three major components: environmental, social, economic.
This paper is focused mainly on environmental part. The article includes
econometric modeling approach in the analysis of environmental governance in
the Republic of Kazakhstan on the way to sustainable development. With this paper we attempt to estimate the
environmental governance in the Republic of Kazakhstan. We estimate regions in
the Republic of Kazakhstan according to their economic and environmental development. Based on the above-mentioned we proposed 4 clusters. According
to the analysis of environmental situation we found out that there is a need to
minimize ecological consequences, future externalities for new generations. Public authorities need to understand it in
the process of implementation of long-term social and economic strategy in the
Republic of Kazakhstan.
Key words: sustainable development, management,
environmental governance, Kazakhstan model, cluster, indicators of sustainable
development, regions
1. Introduction
System of indices and
indicators, which includes various components, is used to assess the level of
sustainable development both at the regional and national level, as well as its
modelling. In view of the availability of a huge variety of "sustainable
development" definitions in the interpretation of domestic and foreign
scientists, involved in the management of sustainable development, by
sustainable development we understand a model of governance that will ensure a
decent standard of welfare and dynamic development of economic and social
system with the environment. A.A. Shalmuev in relation to socio-economic system
defines "sustainability" in the most general form as the ability of
the system to return relatively quickly to its original state or reach a new
and higher point on the path of its development. [1]
One
of the most complete systems on coverage of sustainable development indicators
was developed by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development. The
indicators are divided into main groups:
indicators of social aspects of
sustainable development,
indicators of economic aspects of
sustainable development,
indicators of the environmental
aspects of sustainable development (including the characteristics of the water,
land, air, other natural resources and waste),
indicators of institutional aspects
of sustainable development (programming and policy planning, research and
development, international legal instruments, information technology,
strengthening the role of major population groups) [2].
A basic set of
indicators is well represented in the work of V.A. Koptyuga, V.M. Matrosov and V.K.
Levashov "The new paradigm of development of Russia in the XXI century.
Comprehensive study of the problems of sustainable development: ideas and
results."
The system of indicators
aims to improve the management of sustainable development at different levels.
Analyzing even some of the basic indicators of the development of the Republic
of Kazakhstan in the economic, social and environmental spheres, we can clearly
see and even estimate (measure) the status of sustainable development in the
country. The more indicators are involved in this process, the brighter and
clearer this "picture" will be.
Currently,
the economic research on sustainable development issues is represented by
sufficiently mature economic valuation
of natural resources, the
effectiveness of their use, determination
of the economic damage caused by environmental
pollution, estimation of different factors and indicators of sustainability.
Much attention is paid to the directions and methods of solving environmental problems, the greening of business.
However, despite the abundance of theoretical papers on this topic, they are poorly investigated.
In our view, the problem of improving the
efficiency of regulatory processes
of sustainable development for ensuring their rationalization in the
innovation economy needs to be solved. This necessitates the measurement and development
of a national model of sustainable development.
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS
In order to estimate the
environmental governance in the Republic of Kazakhstan and reveal the model of
sustainable development management we used Strategic Plan of Ministry of
environment and water resources in the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2014-2018
years. The analysis of environmental problems in Kazakhstan was done according
to the statistics of the Agency on Statistics in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
We used econometric
model in order to reveal clusters in Kazakhstan based on economic and
ecological situation.
Theory of Kuznets curve
was used for describing current trends in sustainable development.
The
methodological basis of the
work is represented by such
methods as analysis and synthesis,
statistical analysis, a method of deconstruction, the comparative method,
graphical method.
Main part: To date, trends in the
development of the Republic of Kazakhstan have anti-sustainable character, as evidenced
by the statistics of socio-ecological and economic development of Kazakhstan.
The dynamics of the
gross regional product shows regions - the leaders in the production of GRP for the period
under review. These include: Almaty city, Astana city, Atyrau region, Karaganda
region.
Analysis of
environmental performance across the regions of Kazakhstan has also revealed a
number of features and problems. Among one of the most important is air pollution. The main sources of air pollution are industrial, transport and
household emissions. Until recently, industry has been a major source of air
pollution. Since the bulk of the
pollution from stationary sources is carried out by industrial enterprises, it will
be useful to examine the current situation on this issue in the regions of
Kazakhstan with the most developed industry.
For example, the
structure of emissions in different cities of the Karaganda region looks as
follows (see Table 1).
Table 1. Emissions to the atmosphere from stationary sources in the Karaganda
region, bln. tenge.
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
Growth rate, % |
Rate of increase, % |
|
Karaganda region |
991.6 |
687.7 |
661.2 |
691.3 |
641.4 |
64.68% |
- 35.32 % |
|
Karaganda |
46.3 |
43 |
47.7 |
49.1 |
51.1 |
110.37 % |
10.37 % |
|
Balkhash |
424.3 |
134.9 |
107.3 |
116.7 |
100 |
23.57 % |
- 76.43 % |
|
Zheskazgan |
96.9 |
79 |
80.8 |
80.5 |
75.8 |
78.22 % |
- 21.78 % |
|
Temirtau |
294.5 |
309.2 |
306.9 |
322.1 |
283.6 |
96.30 % |
- 3.70% |
|
Districts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Abay |
94.8 |
90.7 |
85.3 |
88.3 |
88.6 |
93.46 % |
- 6.54 % |
|
Aktogai |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
100.00 % |
- |
|
Bukhar-Zhyrau |
3 |
3.4 |
2.5 |
3.7 |
5.5 |
183.33 % |
83.33 % |
|
Zhanaarka |
2.9 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
2 |
2.4 |
82.76 % |
- 17.24 % |
|
Karkaraly |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
5 |
156.25 % |
56.25 % |
|
Nura |
4.6 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
126.09 % |
26.09 % |
|
Osakarovka |
5.4 |
5.1 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
88.89 % |
- 11.11 % |
|
Ulytau |
1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
60.00 % |
- 40.00 % |
|
Shet |
1 |
1 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
3 |
300.00 % |
200.00 % |
Resource: The main indicators of environmental
protection in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved February
10, 2015, from stat.gov.kz
According to data
presented in Table 1,
we can conclude that in terms of pollutant emissions the leaders are Temirtau
and Balkhash. This is due to the placement of Kazakhstan’s largest companies of
ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, namely, JSC "ArcelorMittal" and
JSC "Kazakhmys" in these settlements.
Thus, it can be noted
that the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan differ not only by the criterion
of economic development, social sphere development, but also by environmental
situation. That is, all three components underlying in the concept of
sustainable development are disproportionately developed and have a lot of
unsolved problems.
In this regard, the
question of public administration in the conditions of instability raises
sharply, i.e. the creation of the Kazakhstani model of sustainable development
governance.
Based on the analysis,
it can be argued that environmental problems accumulated by more than one
generation in the foreseeable future will lead to deterioration of the living
conditions not only for next generations, but also for current residents, their
quality of life; and as a consequence, it can negatively affect the social
sphere of the country. Under these conditions, economic development cannot be
sustained. This reflects the trinity of economic, environmental and social
spheres.
This is confirmed by the
work of American economist and Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets. In "Economic
growth and income inequality" (1955), he argued that at first stage economic
growth leads to an increase, but then to reduction of inequality. The
Environmental Kuznets Curve was discussed in the early 1990s with the filing of
Princeton economists - Gene Grossman and Alan Krueger, who studied the effects
of free trade in oil. Environmental contamination is substituted instead of the
inequality in the Kuznets curve. Pattern is the same - with the growth of GDP
at the beginning ecology deteriorates: factories fume, forests are cut down.
But then comes the turning point that the World Bank report explains:
"With the increase in revenues a demand for environmental improvement rises
and there are more resources that you can invest in it." In other words,
wealthy citizens, firstly, are strongly interested in breathing clean air and
swimming in clean water, and secondly, can afford to spend the extra money on
the environment.
The Environmental
Kuznets curve has something to be liked for: in order to save the environment,
it is not necessary to strangle the economy, but rather to develop it as much intensively
as possible, not considering the consequences for the environment.
If Kuznets curve works,
developed and developing countries will donate part of their GDP. Not just for
the sake of abstract humanism, but for the sake of further economic growth. The
world economy will continue to grow, and greenhouse gas emissions will go down.
On a worldwide environmental Kuznets curve appears turning point. [7]
In this work we have attempted to analyze
the relationship between the level of environmental pollution and the volume of
GDP in Kazakhstan (in the whole country). In the basis we used the Environmental
Kuznets Curve [9] proposed by D. Grossman and A. Krueger. [8]
Simplified
Environmental curve regression equation is as follows:
Where:
In this
case, the moving averages are usually included in model for smoothing
short-term fluctuations and highlighting fundamental trends or cycles [1], [2].
Mathematically moving average is one type of fold, and it can, therefore, be
regarded as a low pass filter used in processing signals. [10]
Estimation of coefficients of
the regression equation we will produce by the least squares method. As a
result of fitting the data on the volume of GRP and emissions of air pollutants
by 16 regions of Kazakhstan for the period from 2004 to 2012, was obtained the
following equation:
wherein:
Since the coefficient
Differentiating the equality
in terms of GRP, and equating the result to zero, we have calculated the amount
of GDP on average in Kazakhstan for which the amount of pollution reaches its
maximum value. And have found that the contamination peak occurs at the level
of the GRP = 1677, 05 billion tenge. A further increase in this indicator in
the Republic of Kazakhstan leads to pollutants emissions reduction.
However, this trend is not
observed for a longer period. As a result of the data processing on the volume
of GRP and emissions of air pollutants by 16 regions of Kazakhstan for the
period from 2000 to 2013, we obtained the following regression equation:
In the equation, the
coefficient
In this
equation using the moving averages of gross domestic product, which are
typically included in a model for smoothing short-term fluctuations and
highlighting major trends or cycles [1] [2], we observe a slightly different
picture, analyzing long trend. This may be connected to the cyclical
development of the economy in the long term, which in itself, does not
contradict the principles of sustainable development.
Since
economic growth reflects the quantitative changes (in the form of gross
domestic product); and sustainable development reflects the positive
qualitative changes aimed at growth, the transformation and the transition from
one state to another.
Cyclic recurrence of the
economy development can be defined as a form of its development, as a movement
from one to the other macroeconomic equilibrium, i.e. the transition from one
state to another. In this context, the U-shaped curve represents, on one hand,
the economic cycle phases. But, since cycle recurrence itself is a form of
economy development, the crisis (manifested in decline point), in turn, appears
as a form of economic development.
Further research is of
practical interest of the impact of economic development on the level of
pollution in different regions of Kazakhstan. At first, in order to do this we
held clustering of all regions by the two indicators - the number of air pollutants
emissions from stationary sources (thousand tons), and gross regional product
(bln tenge).
The following table shows all the regions of
Kazakhstan and the indicators of ecological and economic development of the
region in 2013.
Table 2. Ecological and economic
development of Kazakhstan regions in 2013
|
¹ |
Regions of the
Republic of Kazakhstan |
Emissions to the atmosphere,
(bln tons) |
GRP volume
(bln tenge) |
|
1.
|
Akmola region |
83.8 |
942.2 |
|
2 |
Aktobe region |
125.4 |
1816.3 |
|
3 |
Almaty region |
68.4 |
1665.5 |
|
4 |
Atyrau region |
138.4 |
3635.1 |
|
5 |
West-Kazakhstan region |
60.4 |
1845.8 |
|
6 |
Zhambyl region |
33.6 |
864.0 |
|
7 |
Karaganda region |
572.6 |
2690.7 |
|
8 |
Kostanai region |
115.4 |
1309.7 |
|
9 |
Kyzylorda region |
31.2 |
1374.0 |
|
10 |
Mangystau region |
77.5 |
1880.0 |
|
11 |
South-Kazakhstan region |
56.3 |
2062.6 |
|
12 |
Pavlodar region |
650.4 |
1539.1 |
|
13 |
North-Kazakhstan region |
71.4 |
747.5 |
|
14 |
East-Kazakhstan region |
124.9 |
2050.3 |
|
15 |
Astana city |
60.6 |
3245.4 |
|
16 |
Almaty city |
12.4 |
6471.8 |
Resource: The main indicators of environmental
protection in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved February
10, 2015, from stat.gov.kz
For the classification of
regions we used cluster analysis, allowing carrying out decomposition of
objects into homogeneous groups or clusters on a number of grounds. Homogeneous
objects are considered as objects, observable signs of which are in close
proximity to each other. The norm of proximity is the metric distance. To solve
the problem we used the usual Euclidean metric, according to which the distance
between observations is calculated as follows:
On the basis of the Euclidean
metric, the distance between the regions 1 and 2 is:
It is evident that
Similarly we find the distance between all the 16 regions and build a
matrix of distances.
From the distance matrix it
follows that the regions 5 and 10 are closest to each other
The distance between the
clusters is defined by the principle of "distant-neighbour", which is
described by the formula:
In which:
Thus, the
distance between the region 2 and the cluster (1 + 8) is:
Carrying out similar calculations, we obtain a new
matrix of distances (Table 7).
We find again the minimum distance between objects
Calculations are continued for so long as one does not
get the final cluster. The sequence of clusters join is represented in the form
of the scheme:
|
{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{1,2,3,4,5+10,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{1,2,3,4,5+10,6,7,8,9,11+14,12,13,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{1,2+(5+10),3,4,6,7,8,9,11+14,12,13,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{1+6,2+(5+10),3,4,7,8,9,11+14,12,13,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{1+6,2+(5+10),3,4,7,8+9,11+14,12,13,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{(1+6)+13,2+(5+10),3,4,7,8+9,11+14,12,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{(1+6)+13,(2+(5+10))+3,4,7,8+9,11+14,12,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{(1+6)+13,((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14),4,7,8+9,12,15,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{(1+6)+13,((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14),4+15,7,8+9,12,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{((1+6)+13)+(8+9),((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14),4+15,7,12,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{((1+6)+13)+(8+9),(((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14))+12,4+15,7,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{((1+6)+13)+(8+9),(((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14))+12,(4+15)+7,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{(((1+6)+13)+(8+9))+((((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14))+12),(4+15)+7,16} |
|
↓ |
|
{((((1+6)+13)+(8+9))+((((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14))+12))+((4+15)+7),16} |
|
↓ |
|
{(((((1+6)+13)+(8+9))+((((2+(5+10))+3)+(11+14))+12))+((4+15)+7))+16} |
On the basis of a
schematic representation of the results of the cluster analysis, we can
conclude that all regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan by ecological and
economic development are divided into four clusters:
1)
Akmola region (1), Zhambyl region
(6), Kostanay region (8), Kyzylorda region (9), North-Kazakhstan region (13);
2)
Aktobe region (2), Almaty region
(3), West-Kazakhstan region (5), Mangystau region (10), South-Kazakhstan region
(11), Pavlodar region (12), East-Kazakhstan region (14);
3)
Atyrau region (4), Karaganda region
(7), Astana city (15);
4)
Almaty city (16).
The results of cluster
analysis can be represented as a dendrogram, which is presented in Figure1.
Figure 1. Cluster analysis of ecological and economic development of regions of
the Republic of Kazakhstan from 1991 to 2013.
1 6 13 8 9 2
5 10 3 11 14 12 4 15 7 16
Source:
compiled by the authors according to [4]
After dividing all the regions of Kazakhstan on
four clusters we carried out a regression analysis according to the level of
contamination from the economic development of the regions; and as a result of which
we obtained the following equation:
For cluster 1:
or
For cluster 2:
or
For cluster 3:
or
For cluster 4:
or
So, the first cluster is
represented by the most prosperous regions in terms of ecology - Akmola,
Zhambyl, Kostanay, Kyzylorda and North-Kazakhstan. For this cluster Kuznets
curve does not work - there is no maximum point, but we have minimum one, i.e.
before it with the increase of GRP the emissions reduce, and after that point
with increasing GRP the emissions will increase.
The second cluster is represented by less favourable regions
from an environmental point of view: Aktobe, Almaty, West Kazakhstan, Mangystau,
South Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan regions.
The third cluster is represented by Atyrau region,
Karaganda region, Astana city; and the city of Almaty - stands out as an
independent fourth cluster.
For all these regions
∩-shaped curve, i.e. there is a point of maximum GRP, after which
emissions are reduced. That is, according to the environmental Kuznets curve, along
with economic development the pollutants emissions into the environment reduce.
Why for the first most
prosperous cluster in the ecological sense in Kazakhstan Kuznets curve does not
work?
This can be
explained by the fact that the growth of economic activity has a negative
impact on the quality of the environment; in contrast to changes in GNP income
per capita, the impact on the environment of which is positive and linear, and
this contradicts the results of Grossman and Krueger. Variable measuring the
impact of trade is not significant in the regression equations, as it may have
contradictory effects on the ecology. Researchers make the following
conclusion: the level of contamination increases if the country has a surplus
of capital (as in this case capital-intensive and environmentally dirty
industries are developing), and decreases with growing labour-intensive
industries.
In general, countries
with low GNP income per capita generate polluting products, and the society is
not so concerned about the condition of the environment that the government
will realize conservation activity. With the growth, pollution reaches a
critical point. Then the state under public pressure, on the one hand, begins
to form a system of environmental management, and on the other - with the help
of macroeconomic tools to stimulate economic shift away from polluting industries
to high-tech ones, in which modern technology and the human factor play an
important role. As a result, environmental pollution begins to decrease.
3.
CONCLUSION
So, the prediction of
the transition to "sustainable" development made by our macroeconomic
model is very favourable for the Republic of Kazakhstan from economic,
environmental and social points of view. In our model, it was shown that
"sustainable development" not only leads to the economic development
of the country as a whole, but also provides a higher GRP growth rate, smoothes
uneven regional progress, and guarantees "development" itself - one
of the key indicators of the country’s well-being.
At the present stage of
its development, the Republic of Kazakhstan has not yet reached the point of
the maximum on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which explains the
environmental degradation and worsening of environmental situation.
A number of ministries,
departments, committees, NGOs and other organizations responsible for
addressing these issues in Kazakhstan practice the management of
"sustainable development". The main government body, in our opinion,
is the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources.
The transition to
sustainable development and its management – is a very long process, as it
requires the solution of unprecedented by scale social, economic and
environmental objectives. As we move towards sustainable development the very
notion of it will be changed and updated, the needs of people - rationalize in
accordance with environmental constraints, and means to meet these needs -
improve. Therefore, the implementation of the principles of sustainable
development should be considered in stages. Moreover, only for relatively early
stages appropriate software and forecast documents can be developed. For
example, the Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources
of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2014 - 2018 years. This strategic document is
a plan, which outlines the main objectives, indicators, events and measures to
achieve the goals on the path to sustainable development in the Republic of
Kazakhstan. But, unfortunately, many of the indicators of the Plan are not
amenable to analysis and should be specified [11].
The
transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to sustainable development is
predetermined by the need to address pressing environmental, economic and
social problems. At the same time, programs of the environment improvement should
be developed in the areas of ecologic crisis and begin their systematic
execution; also outline comprehensive measures to normalize the situation in
environmentally disadvantaged areas and prepare the organizational basis of
these measures realization. Minimizing adverse environmental impacts, future externalities
for the next generations is necessary. The problem of environmental
constraints, compromise between current and future consumption should become
the main in the elaboration of socio-economic development strategy for the long
term outlook for any country.
In the next step should
be carried out major structural changes in the economy, technological
innovation, and significant greening process of socio-economic development. At
this stage, environmental well-being of the country is provided primarily
through the rationalization of the use of the rich natural potential of
Kazakhstan, the use of new technologies, the development of human capital and
management.
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