Doctor of Economics, Professor R. Dulambayeva
Master is degree G.
Kaukayeva
Analysis of external debt of
the republic of Kazakhstan for 2015
External
debt - the total liabilities of the state, expressed by a sum of money to be
repaid to foreign creditors on a certain date, that is, the total debt of the
country on foreign loans and unpaid interest thereon. External debt is the
outstanding amount of the actual and unconditional liabilities of the country’s
residents to nonresidents at a particular point in time, which requires
payment(s) of principal and / or interest.
For analysis purposes external debt indicator is
presented with a sector breakdown.
Governmental sector includes Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan (general
government) and the National Bank of Kazakhstan (Central Bank). External debt
is the outstanding amount of the actual and unconditional liabilities of the
country’s residents to nonresidents at a particular point in time, which
requires payment(s) of principal and / or interest. Meanwhile, the intercompany
lending bears a certain level of conditionality, which isexpressed by the
dependence of terms of principal and/or interest payments on the results of
operating activities of the borrowers. In the context of external debt
management, systemic risks of the state related to intercompany lending are
estimated to be low since the creditor-direct investor shares the risk of
insolvency of the borrower through their participation in the management of its
activities. In this regard, the intercompany lending, including obligations of
Kazakhstan’s banks and enterprises to foreign direct investors, foreign direct
investment enterprises, as well as foreign fellow enterprises, is presented
separately in the structure of the external debt. The analytical tables
on external debt, including by sector breakdown and categories of financial
instruments are listed in attachment to this note.
On 31st of December 2015 the external debt of the Republic of
Kazakhstan amounted to 153,5 billion US dollars (hereinafter – billion dollars), of
which 8,0 billion dollars - the external debt of the “Banks” and 12,2 billion
dollars – the external debt of the “Governmental sector”. The rest is
attributable to the debt of ‘Other sectors’ owed to affiliated nonresidents
(the so-called “intercompany lending” – 81,8 billion dollars) and unaffiliated
nonresidents (51,5 billion dollars) (Figure1).
During 2015 the
external debt shrunk almost by 4 billion dollars (at 31 of December 2014 the
external debt indicator was equal to 157,4 bln. dollars). The external debt of
the governmental sector during the year increased by 2,1 billion dollars, debt
of “Other sectors”, excluding intercompany lending reduced by 8,1 bln dollars,
and intercompany lending liabilities grew by 2,4 bln. dollars. External debt
structure by types of financial instruments has not undergone significant
changes: it is still dominated by loans received from nonresidents (80%) and
debt securities, owned by nonresidents (12%) (Figure 2).
In the two consecutive years the debt securities of Kazakhstan's
residents generally have a higher nominal than market value. At the end of the
4th quarter 2015 the difference between market and nominal value of debt
securities by non-residents amounted to (-) $ 1,2 billion, compared with (-) $
1,5 billion at September 30, 2015.
An important indicator in the context of risk assessment of debt service is the ratio of short-term (up to one year) to total debt. At 31st of December 2015 the share of short-term liabilities was 4,2% (6,1% as on 31of December, 2014). Short-term remaining maturity debt at 31.12.2015 (principal and interest debt with term of repayment within forthcoming year) was equal to 22,1 billion dollars. On December 31, 2015 the ratio of the reserve assets of the National Bank of Kazakhstan to short-term external debt by remaining term to maturity resulted at 126,0%. Figure 3. External debt with the breakdown by sector of creditor and by type of interest rate
The main creditors of Republic of Kazakhstan are foreign banks, whose claims to residents equal to 26,0 billion dollars and other sectors of nonresidents (115,9 billion dollars), including intercompany lending - 81,8 billion dollars. Governmental sector’s liabilities are mainly to international financial organizations[1] (5,1billion dollars) (Figure 3).
By the breakdown on type of interest payment, the prevailing share of external debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan (98,9 billion dollars) has a variable-linked interest rate, which bears a risk in creating more expensive debt service as a result of changes in market perceptions (Figure 4).At the same time debt securities of Kazakhstan issuers generally have a fixed interest rate. Specifically for securities fixed interest rate creates more volatility, affecting the market value of the instrument itself in response to changing market conditions.
Regarding countries-creditors of Kazakhstan (Figure 5), almost a third of the external debt is to Netherlands (28%), primarily as intercompany lending; 16% - to Great Britain and 9% - to China, mainly to non-affiliates. Netherlands and the United Kingdom are financial centers, where capital transit (to other countries) happens to be, which decreases the country concentration risk of external debt of Kazakhstan.
Literature
1.
http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
2.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki
3.
http://www.nationalbank.kz/?&switch=kazakh