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Shagirova Z. Z.

Suleyman Demirel University, Kazakhstan

Overview of risk management

 

One of the most popular area among researchers and practitioners of project management is the risk management. Risk management has become essential section of the project management. There are many examples for this. For example, risk management is one of the main parts of Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK). In addition to this, risk management is considered as major area in official publications of such institutions as Office of Government Commerce, UK Association of Project Management, British Standard Institute and etc.

The importance of risk management is increasing every year. When it became crucial to sell products to different customers in various locations, top managers mostly came from marketing sphere. Due to the reason that in the last few years financing issue became crucial to the companies, top managers were from finance specialists. In the nearest future, most of the executives will rise from risk specialists due to the fact that risk management becomes very important for business continuity of every company.

According to the survey among construction project managers the main reasons for using risk management is following: to control risks in order to increase profit, to decrease number of unsatisfactory projects, to quantify potential risk exposure, to make sure that reputation will not be harmed. The first industries, that recognized importance of the risk identification and risk assessment, were construction and military industries.

The main objective of risk management is providing sustainability to the whole organization. By identifying and analyzing all possible threats and opportunities risk management helps to achieve good results and avoid losses. Risk management should be dynamic process. It should consider vision, culture and other important aspects of the organization.

However, not all project managers believe that risk management is an important area. Many project managers fully believe that risk management is a waste of time and money. One of the main reasons for not using risk management procedures is that such project managers think that it is impossible to identify and control all possible risks of the project.

Some of the practitioners see risk analysis as partially gambling and partially mathematics. While, good risk analysis is only good support tool for decision making. Risk analysis is a structured way of collecting information for further decision making.

Each project should have different risk analysis strategies, tools, techniques and etc. Risk analysis methods and strategy should be chosen based on importance of the project, complexity of the project and data reliability.

Economist Intelligence Unit (2007) identified main internal and external drivers of risk management. According to their survey main internal driver of risk management is commitment from board of directors. So, effective risk management should be motivated from the top. Other important internal drivers are greater complexity of value chain, latest risk event, such as fraud, crash or product recall.

The main external driver of risk management is regulator. Close attention of regulators can significantly increase performance of risk management in the company. One of the reasons for increasing popularity of risk management is increased focus of regulators in recent time. Another important driver that can strengthen risk management is demand from investors for greater disclosure. Macroeconomic volatility, pressure from customers, political instability can be effective drivers of risk management too.

Understanding about risk and risk management is known from ancient times. However, researchers do not know exact history of appearing the word “risk”. Giddens stated that it is a Spanish word, which means “rock”. Almost the same was stated by another researcher, who said that it is a Latin word, which means “the challenge posed to a sailor by a barrier reef”.  Fishburn stated that “risk” means “bad event”. Practically the same definition was said by Statman and Tjebjee. They said that it is “a high probability of failure”.

Risk – possibility of meeting danger, suffering loss, etc.  Peeger described risk as: “Risks are an unwanted events/ factors/ threats that have negative consequences”. Delivering project on time and within the budget is directly depends on the ability to manage risks. Because of this, the main aim of risk management is identification and management of project risks.

Nowadays, more and more people tend to say that risk has a neutral meaning, which means it can have positive and negative meanings. According to some of the literature risk had a neutral meaning in the past. For example, Wharton stated that this is a Arabic word, which means “something from which you draw a profit”.

Furthermore, every person has different understanding of the word risk, based on his experience, character, education. A lot of researchers stated that the word “risk” is very broad.  For instance, Das and Teng  assumed: “The term “risk” seemed to be one of the most commonly abused concepts in social science”.

There are a lot of debates about when to use risk management procedures, earlier or later in the project life cycle. It is very difficult to introduce risk management at the early stages of project life cycle, due to high uncertainties. Objectives and deliverables are not accurately stated at that stage. Project is more flexible at that stage. Usually it is proper to use such techniques which are more qualitative, informal and creative.

Project risk management has various stages. For example, Boehm stated that project risk management has two main stages, risk assessment and risk control. Risk assessment contains such sub-stages as risk identification, risk analysis, risk prioritization. And risk control contains following sub-stages: planning, tracking, corrective actions. Another researcher divided PRM into following processes: identification, assessment, development mitigation strategy, monitor, contingency plan, crisis management and recovery. Software Engineering Institute identified five stages of PRM, which are identification, analysis, response planning, tracking, and control.

Even if there are a lot of different classifications of project risk management phases, all of them contain the same processes. Generally there are main five phases of PRM: planning, identification, analysis, response and control. Initially, it is necessary to plan your risk management strategy, appetite. Then, it is needed to identify all possible risks. Relevant risks should be analyzed using different risk management tools and techniques. There is a need in proper response for previously analyzed risks. And finally, it is necessary to monitor and control the risk management activities.

Currently risk management has become essential part of project management. Role of the project risk management has significantly risen during current global economic downturn. Finally, considerably more work will need to be done to analyze risk identification tools that are suitable for identification of positive risks. More research is needed for better understanding about those issues.

 

References:

1.   Akintoye, A. and MacLeod, M., 1997. Risk analysis and management in construction. International Journal of Project Management, 15, pp.31-38

2.   Kaplan, R. et al., 2009. Managing risk in the new world. Harvard Business Review, October 2009, pp.69-75

3.   Kasap, D. and Kaymak, M., 2007. Risk identification step of the project risk management. In: Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET’ 07: Management of Converging Technologies. Oregon, USA 5-9 August 2007. Portland: PICMET.

4.   Kindinger, J. and Darby, J., 2000. Risk factor analysis – a new qualitative risk management tool. Project Management Institute Annual Seminars and Symposium. Houston, USA 7-16 September 2000. Los Alamos National Laboratory: Los Alamos.

5.   Kutsch, E. and Hall, M., 2010. Deliberate ignorance in project risk management. International Journal of Project Management, 28, pp.245-255

6.   Lucidus Consulting, 2008. Always look on the bright side of life? Project Management Today, june, pp.20.

7.   Peeger, S., 2000. Risky Business: What we have yet to learn about risk management. The Journal of Systems and Software, 53, pp.265-273

8.   Raz, T. and Michael, E., 2001. Use and benefits of tools for project risk management. International Journal of Project Management, 19, pp.9-17

9.   Taylor-Gooby, P. and Zinn, J., 2006. Risk in social science. New York: Oxford University Press Inc.