Geography and geology / 6.Natural management and environmental monitoring

Bocharov V.L., Strogonova L.N.

Voronezh State University

Environmental hazards:

philosophical and psychological aspects

Environmental risk, probability, chance, uncertainty - these concepts have become part of the daily life of human society. Environmental issues of modern time are not only based on a risk assessment, but also with the philosophical, psychological, economic, social and other factors. The risk is always associated with the decision and willingness to accept it from the form and dynamics of uncertainty.

Risk, probability, uncertainty are constant and unavoidable partner in life and work of modern man. The risk touches everybody; modern society is a society of risk, as uncertainty and the risk of emergencies and potential threats are increasing [1,5]. The concept of "risk" is used in almost all natural, technical, humanitarian and social sciences. Scientists speak about the environmental, geological, psychological, economic, social, legal, health and many other risks [3,6]. In particular, environmental risk is based on the principles of sustainability techno-natural ecosystems, using basic natural (geology, geography, hydrology, geoecology), mathematics (probability theory, mathematical statistics, computer science) sciences. Therefore, there are still different interpretations of the concept of "risk", although a priori assumed that the risk has some general, universal properties [2,4]. As one of the most common definitions of risk - is the level of uncertainty in anticipation of the outcome. The decisions taken at risk are those, whose results are not obvious, certain, however, the likelihood of which can be evaluated. In other words, risk - is measurable uncertainty. Typically risk situation involves two interrelated attributes: the first reflects a certain degree of uncertainty, the second - the ability to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

Thus, the risk as the probability of losses associated with environmental degradation as a result of the transformation of the environment of human activity. Of the many definitions used to determine the environmental risk can be considered, for example, even such as the level of uncertainty in the prediction of environmental damage resulting from the economic activity, possible probability of losses arising from the specificity of certain phenomena of natural or man-made disasters, the probability of undesirable result of the transformation of ecosystems, the possibility of occurrence of environmental events under the influence of various factors, activated by human activities, measurable uncertainty effects of anthropogenic and natural ecosystems, the ratio of information and entropy on the factors that can affect the environment and people, the risk of the subject due to the uncertainty of financial effects of interventions on environmental safety of the environment.

One of the most common ways that take into account the probabilities of the events and the associated negative environmental impacts is to obtain the probability of the product on its results, expressed in quantitative characteristics. In probability theory and mathematical statistics, this product is called the expected value of a random event (a random variable).

As a rule, the definition of environmental risk assessment mainly includes the likelihood of the potential environmental events. Can be considered in this case, three situations:

- The probability of an adverse event in the ecological sense is very high, but the alleged damages associated with this event are missing, so we can assume that the risk is zero;

- The possible effects of environmental adverse events are very significant, but the probability of its occurrence is very low, and therefore the risk is zero;

- Damage from possible adverse developments in the ecological sense is very significant and the probability of its occurrence is large, in this case the risk is also very high [5]. It is quite obvious that the assessment of risk depends not only on the probability of the event, but also on the quantitative parameters.

Quantitative assessment of environmental risk is constantly used in various projects. Sustainability of modern techno-natural ecosystems is largely determined by natural conditions, transformed to varying degrees by human activities. It is logical to assume that the analysis and evaluation of environmental risks appropriately guided by the potential loss. It is a psychological phenomenon: the man making the decision, not just avoids the uncertainty, but do not want to loss.

It is impossible to disagree with the authors [1,5] that the risk, as a philosophical category is associated both with the subject and with a solution that takes this subject, so, without making a decision does not arise and risky situation. In turn, without forecasting and risk assessment can not make a decision. Thus, the assessment of risk in this case serves as an integral index, including a probabilistic assessment of how the implementation of the solution and the quantitative characteristics of the consequences of the decision. In ecology, a risky situation - a kind of uncertain situation, including an assessment of the probability of considering the influence of the environment. Consequently, the situation of the risk consists of two logically interacting components: the objective (probabilistic, uncertain) and subjective (behavioral). Subject not only to decide, but it also assesses the probability of occurrence of adverse events and the associated risk of loss. The process and result of target selection and how to achieve it – is always social and psychological phenomenon [1]. The solution can be called as a link between cognition and in some behaviors, human action. Decision-making is a thought process, involving a preliminary sense of purpose and mode of action, study the various options. The most important feature of this process is its mental attitude and strong will.

In taking decisions human knowledge, interests and outlook are integrated. Purposeful human activity is always associated with decision-making and this is a structural element, the most important attribute of this activity [5]. Any human activity can be represented as a chain of decision-making.

In practice, the main purpose of all the action at risk is based replacement for rigorous analytical uncertainties laws. In accordance with this approach, it is concluded if there is a threat to the established environmental situation and whether immediate implementation of measures to reduce or avoid the risk.

In conclusion, it should be emphasized that the risks including environmental is an integral characteristic combining marks of the probabilities of decision realization and its consequences. Every subject has its own system of preferences, so there is no universal index for integrating probability and loss. However, the task of the subject - to choose a solution that minimized the risk of implementation. Risk should not be seen simply as a clash with circumstances beyond our control, but as a conscious choice, so the subject must have a rational basis for making wise decisions in conditions of uncertainty. Then he can afford to compare different options and choose the one that most closely matches its objectives, estimates and system of values.

Literature

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2. Bashkin V.N. Environmental risks: the calculation, management and insurance. - M.: High School, 2007. - 360 p.

3. Bezuglova E.V., Matsiy S.I., Pleshakov D.V. Geological risk management and psychological aspects // Georisk. - 2011. - № 4. - p. 44 - 48.

4. Bocharov V.L. Philosophical aspects of environmental risk // Ecology: synthesis of science, technical and humanities. – Saratov: Saratov tech. un-ty, 2012. - p.132-136.

5. Diev V.S. Philosophical paradigm of risk // ECO. - 2008. - № 12. - p. 27 - 38.

6. Kozlovsky S.V., Sheshenya N.L. Prediction of geological hazards and risks of their display as part of the space-time system // High school news. Geology and exploration. - 2010. - № 6. - p. 59 - 61.