Политология/2. Политическая конфликтология

PhD in Political Science Polyakov E.M.

Voronezh State University, Russia

The potential for human development and the Arab Spring:
experience in analyzing the use of violence in politics

The interaction of human capital and violence has been on the agenda since the events of the Arab Spring. We believe that the answer to it can give theory of “youth bulge”. According to her, in communities, in the structure of which the share of young people up to 24 years of age is not less than 20%, there will be instability, tendency to authoritarianism regimes and coups, followed by a surge of illegitimate violence to socially vulnerable groups [7, 151-154]. Studies conducted in recent years have revealed a correlation between the level of economic development, and illegitimate violence.

If violence can not be contained, the agreement within the ruling elite to stop the fight will be broken, which in turn will lead to more frequent use of violence in society. Therefore, the requirements for access to youth organizations to lead to violent regime change. Increase in the number of young people is the trigger mechanism in social transformation. Found that in the hybrid regimes of open violence risk is greatest. If there are other factors (poverty, ethnic diversity, social inequality), violence is almost inevitable [6, 13]. Violence manifests itself in street riots, politically motivated terrorism and civil wars. However, the main threat is the danger of civil war and the urban guerilla. At the moment, 60 of the 67 largest in number of nations facing youth bulge, survived the civil conflicts of varying intensity, from riots to genocide [8, 36].

Excess of its ongoing youth violence is an important factor constituting society. As the work by Timothy Earle, population pressures in a number of societies (ancient Greece, medieval Italy and in French Polynesia) was the cause of social change and the transition from chiefdom to state [3, 84-85]. He identified three types of strategies that could lead to such a transition. The first type is associated with the power of the leader, based on the control over the means of production and / or distribution. The second is related to the conduct of conquest and an alliance. The third is based on ideology, legitimizing power of the leader as a necessary condition for the preservation of the “natural” order of things in the world. Earl said that “the developments of complex political systems are based not just on access to the source of power, but the ability to control it” [4, 86].

It is easy to see that these conditions were typical for countries emerging from the “Arab Spring”. The same countries (and Russia) maintained a policy of catch-up modernization. Does this mean that the catch-up modernization inevitably leads to violence out of the institutional framework and creates a systemic crisis?
In December 2010, in the journal Population and Development Review published an article “Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Countries, Revisited”, shed light on the rapid spread of the Arab reducing mortality. Reduction in mortality coincided with significant changes in the child and adolescent mortality, nutrition, education levels and different areas of manifestation of human capabilities [9, 505-616]. This article will provide a theoretical basis and quantitative data indicating the relationship of human development and political mobilization.

The debate about the social and economic basis of the revolutions underway, began at least since the end of XVIII century. The best known is the Malthusian model in which the incidence of poverty is a revolution [11, 277-283]. Bourgeois model emphasizes that the increase in living standards, for example, the emergence of the middle class, reduce political activity, both peaceful and revolutionary [2, 681-702]. The modern interpretation has a neo-Malthusian bias and ties with the Arab spring, food security, unemployment and disillusioned youth. But the theory of development allows us to consider the situation from the point of view of the relationship between individuals and the deeper social changes [10, 449-465]. The concept of human capital has allowed “to cut off” the human dimension of national development and to focus on economic growth [5, 369-395]. Some studies point out that the HDI in the absence of effective institutions and governments will be minimal [1, 925-985].

Improvements in RFI led to the basis for mass mobilization against the political regimes in the Arab world. This thesis is based on three related assumptions. First, the HDI lead to increase of political participation and inclusion. Second, it generates sharp growth needs and expectations of the population, which gives rise to new political challenges and reduces the dependence of the public space of the mode. Such changes are impossible without changes in the social environment. Finally, these changes lead to the appearance of features conducive to regime change, as demonstrated by the “Arab Spring”.

References:

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2. Fox S., Hoelscher K. Political Order, Development and Social Violence. A cross-country study. London: Crisis States Research Centre, London School of Economics & Political Science, 2011.

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4. Earle T. Chiefdoms in archaeological and ethno-historical perspective // Annual Reviews in Anthropology, 1987, Vol.16.

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