УДК: 658.14/17

Kruglov V.N.

Institute of management, business and technology

The Russian experience of predictive decisions in the economy

Keywords: planning, methods, means, external environment, internal environment, threats, challenges, dynamics, monitoring, adaptation, implementation.

Abstract: the article discusses aspects of the national experience in corporate planning. Analyzes the achievements of separate schools of thought, discusses their methodological contradictions. Planning is the most important resource in achieving positive dynamics of economic indicators of enterprises. On this basis, the ways of its optimization and adaptation for most spheres of national economy. Provides practical advice and recommendations.

In the system control special emphasis on planning, namely, both in the development and practical implementation of the plans, leading to promising status of economic entities and defining the ways, methods and means of its achievement.

Planning a business entity is a critical management function, aimed at the justification of its future state taking into account the variety of factors internal and external environment.

A variety of planning corporate planning acts, regard as the formation of the system of plans (long term, mid term and short term), defining goals, directions and activities on the basis of the forecast of dynamics of the external environment, including other systemic factors.

As noted by G. V. Naumov [2, p. 196] "a study of the essence of the basic management functions (including organization, planning, coordination, motivation and control) shows that the process of preparation and decision making by enterprise management means, first of all, a quantitative study and a clear statement of the objectives required by the subject of management, development and algorithm implementation of specific activities, ensuring their phased implementation". Such management activities in its essential content and is planning. One of the arguments in support of such allegation stands the fact of the beginning of the management process, starting with planning, leading to the final solution of the problem, to solve which the need arose and it became possible specific management activity. The quality of planning largely determines the efficiency of managerial decisions, predetermining the results of operations of the entire enterprise.

Finally, management can be seen as the end result of the planning stages that connects the past position of the company with its future condition through the dynamics of the present, thus providing a continuous and consistent flow of all processes of the activity. Because planning is seen as intrinsic to the function of management, it can be fairly argued that it acts as a Central link in the control system. Therefore, planning can also be defined and how the particular specific form of the production practices of people who are a priority, including the preparation of reasonable solutions in the form of tests, projects, programmes, strategies and plans, involving the monitoring of their implementation, monitoring the timeliness of implementation.

Scheduling logic must contain the following structural elements:

- analysis of the baseline condition of the company in the period preceding the plan, comparison with the required;

- analysis of the situation in which the enterprise is located, and trends of its dynamics;

- the identification of problems and their quantitative evaluation (from the point of view of influence on the result of the activities and capabilities of the decision);

- the definition and formation of specific objectives (or goals) that you intend to achieve in the planning period subject planning;

- the determination of the extent and patterns of market demand in the products manufactured by the company in the planning period;

- the determination of the extent and structure of available resources at the beginning of the planning period, and again engaged in the planning period;

- monitoring of implementation of measures and indicators in the plan period;

- coordination and balance the needs and resources of units and subsystems of the enterprise by eliminating temporal contradictions or inconsistencies.

Consider planning principles, the observance of which creates prerequisites for the substantiation of plans, reduces the possibility of errors, and hence contributes to the effective operation of the enterprise.

In A. Fayolle to basic planning principles are: unity, continuity, flexibility, precision [3, p. 131].

The meaning of the principle of unity (or holism) indicates the systemic nature of planning: a combination of elements and relationships between them; a single vector of development of these elements, aimed at a common goal.

Continuity implies that: planning should be ongoing, covering all stages of production; plans must promptly replace each other [4, p. 211].

The principle of flexibility involves the ability to timely change the content of the plans in connection with the change in the situation.

Additionally, the number of considered planning principles R. Ackoff introduced another – the principle of participation, involving participation in the planning process of each employee, regardless of his position and functions. Such a planning method, widely used in enterprises of developed foreign countries, is called participatory. Its distinguishing features are as follows:

- employees of the company receive a more complete and objective information, both about the production and about the situation in which the organization is located;

- personal participation in the development of plans contributes pony-mania development goals of the enterprise, the achievement of which is connected with the needs of the employees and increases their satisfaction, growth motives to increase their productivity and strengthening the spirit of community action. The company plans to acquire the personal plans of employees;

- employee participation in planning contributes to the development of them as individuals, the emergence of new skills and knowledge, broadens the horizon of interpreting their enterprise, the meaningfulness of action.

The diversity of the views of economists on the content of corporate planning allows them to be considered from the perspective of the following approaches: interactive, teleologies, element, industry, object, system, information [5, p. 74].

Consider the main content of these approaches.

Interactive approach. The concept of "interactive planning" (introduced by R. Ackoff, which has the following content: it involves the participation of employees and mobilize their creative abilities in order to company, focuses on designing future state of the enterprise, which is regarded as a product of the creative influences of his employees.

The importance of the positive role of planning is reflected in the well-known Maxim R. Ackoff [1, p. 329]: "to plan or be planned". It should be noted that this approach allows to combine such functions of control, which often contradict each other – operational management and planning, which is not seen as some kind of external action for the employees, because they are involved in the planning.

It should be noted and the existing opposite point of view that interactive planning represents a perfect build, and not a practical method. Actually, companies do not have the opportunity to determine their own future, or even more so – to create it; they have only some way to adapt to it. Therefore, the planning acts not as the design of the future, but only as a way of adapting to dynamic and unpredictable changes. Therefore, in Russia, many managers prefer to formulate the goals of the activity of enterprises on a rational basis, to solve the problem of the production of the most appropriate ways in the circumstances, namely not to use planning.

It should be noted that the differences between the two approaches are actually caused not by the weakness of the planning method, and a situation in which it is applied. The market economy developed countries with fully developed infrastructure, availability of proven instruments and mechanisms, with long accumulated experience of the functioning of enterprises in the conditions of supply and demand turns out to be more popular in the design of future and largely corresponds to the content of interactive planning in R. Ackoff.

In Russia, businesses still operate in an unpredictable environment, with inadequate infrastructure, lack of competition on an economic basis. According to some business leaders, in these circumstances, the planning may not be in demand and useful for even the ongoing tasks.

Salapoliisi approach. Contents corporate planning is often considered in the broadest sense, in connection with mental and purposive activity of people. Thus, according to G. A. Makhovikov, E. L. Cantor, I. I. Drohomirecka planning is a natural form telepaisa activity of people in any field due to their abilities to perceive and adequately reflect in your consciousness changes, the sequence of the existence of a variety of natural phenomena and to find patterns in their development [79]. To this thesis, in our opinion, you can add that this is why planning works as a management function, contributing to the increased likelihood of achievement of the goal of enterprise development.

Element approach reflects a separate (local) planning components. This is purely a narrow approach to understanding corporate planning, reflected, for example, as setting individual goals of the company for some period of time, trends and ways of their achievement and resource provision . In our opinion, internal planning cannot be reduced only to the development of individual elements or even the entire plan. It is a kind of indicator of the quality management system and generate management decisions, reflecting their compliance with the modern requirements of a highly competitive environment. Corporate planning can be considered as a part formed on the integrated enterprise management philosophy, its survival for the future that requires the allocation of priorities, the establishment of a system that includes all the units, informed of the event, the order of actions to achieve the goals based on the resource capabilities and their most effective application.

Project planning is the organization of activities for the development and implementation of projects in the enterprise. It is necessary for enterprises to scale up the use projects (innovation, investment and others) when the need arises for the creation of a specialized project management system in which, among other functions, finds its application and plan for their development and implementation on a regular basis. According to N. And. Pereverzeva "such specialized work focused on the development of plans to identify, develop and implement projects, resources and operations on them, ensuring their value (ROI, efficiency)". The essence of project planning is to establish a uniform procedure (regulations, technology, etc.) forming portfolios of projects and their implementation within the enterprise to resolve issues within set deadlines.

This approach assumes the universality of jurisdiction for all parties planning in close conjunction with the results. The activities of modern enterprises is impossible without its focus on achieving high performance, which requires quality management planning activities of all units as a whole, and therefore the use of the balanced scorecard.

Information approach reflects the role of planning in the communication space. For example, the government produces a plan (strategy, programme) actions and macroeconomic indicators, presents them to the public and business about their alleged actions at a specified time period. Such indicators can be a signal for businesses in which direction to Orient their work.

Literature:

1. Ackoff R. Ackoff about management. Systems theory. Bureaucratization. Corruption. Education – SPb.: Peter–South, 2012. – 448 p.

2. Balashov A. P. Fundamentals of management: textbook. – M.: high school textbook, INFRA-M, 2012. – 288 p.

3. Baronin S. A. Fundamentals of management, planning and controlling in real estate: a Training manual. – M.: NIC INFRA-M, 2012. – 160 c.

4. Blinov A. O. Fundamentals of management: textbook. – M.: ELITE, 2013. – 352 p.

5. Blake R. R., Mouton D. S. Scientific management / TRANS. from English. I. Yushchenko. – Kiev: Vysheishaya school, 2013. – 274 p.