Tulemetova A.S., Dosmuratova E.E.

SKSU n. M. Auezov, Shymkent, Kazakhstan

 

ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN INDICATORS OF CONSTRUCTION SECTOR OF KAZAKHSTAN

 

The construction in Kazakhstan is one of the leading industries exerting considerable impact on development of a huge number of allied industries of economy of RK. So, in Russia about 5,3% of GDP, and in Belarus – about 8,3% to GDP fall to the share of a construction following the results of 2015.

In Kazakhstan this industry of economy occupies on average 6,5% during the period since 2010-2015. The maximum indicator in 9,8% to GDP was fixed in 2006 in connection with attendees speculative in the real estate market, led to high increase in prices in this market and, finally, to crisis in the mortgage sphere during this period.

              

Diagram 1. Construction share in GDP of RK, %

 

     The amount of completed work (services) for the considered period of 2010-2015 constituted a little more than 14,2 billion tenges, annually increasing, on average for 8%. The main share of construction works (services) – about 85% - make installation and construction works. About 9% to fall on services in capital repairs and 6% - on running repair.

        At the same time to 80% of the performed construction works (services) in pattern of ownership 19% - for foreign and 1% - on state are the share of a private sector.

       Following the results of 2015 the greatest share of construction works was executed on construction objects and warehousing (38%), industrial facilities (34%) and real estate objects (17%).

          The volume of the performed construction works, being the advancing indicator, correlates with a volume of commissioning of new buildings which average annual growth makes about 105% during 2010-2015. In total for the considered period about 63 thousand sq.m of new buildings have been put into operation. From them about 6.5% or 41,1 thousand sq.m fall to the share of residential buildings.

Diagram 2. The total area of the new buildings put into operation

 

The construction industry in Kazakhstan represents a sufficient set of independently accounting entities having the specific features today. So following the results of 2015 in an industry about 10,8 thousand contract and construction organizations work, from them the vast majority has private pattern of ownership, state only 23 companies.

According to National Business the ranking-500 of the largest companies on income level following the results of 2015 includes 86 companies specializing in a construction and production of construction materials.

 

          Table 1. 10 Construction companies in a ranking of 500 largest companies  of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan the Place in a ranking - 500

Company

Sector

The income from realization, in one million tenges

15

² Group

Construction and production of construction materials

241 571

34

JSC «NGC «KazStroyService»

Infrastructure construction

108 097

46

Ltd «Affiliated organization of the Chinese oil engineering construction group»

Infrastructure construction

69 640

50

Branch Sembol Investments & Development

Construction

61 320

59

JSC «Highvill Kazakhstan»

Construction

53 240

76

JSC «Imstalcon»

Production of grain

41 086

78

JSC «Almatyinzhstroy»

Infrastructure construction

40 353

98

JSC «Trest Sredazenergomontazh»

Infrastructure construction

32 745

100

Ltd «Kazakhdorstroy»

Cconstruction auto roads

32 090

113

Group of companies «Basis»

Residential and commercial real estate

28 630

 

         The share of an occupied population in a construction industry during the period since 2010-2015 changed slightly and, on average, constitutes about 2,6%. The average number of hired employees in a construction industry in 2015 totaled about 229,3 thousand people, having increased in relation to 2010 by 12%.

         The average monthly salary of builders continues to increase in nominal terms and constituted 148 960 tenges in 2015 while in 2010 workers of a construction industry received 104 434 tenges.

 

 

Diagram 3. A salary return and a salary reservoir in a construction industry of Kazakhstan

 

The analysis of such factor as a salary return shows that following the results of 2015 about 7,6 tenges of the performed construction works (services) were the share of 1 tenge of costs on the salary. For the analyzed period it is possible to observe decrease in cost efficiency of use of the money allocated for compensation of hired employees, i.e. a capability of a salary fund to create the income for 1 tenge, invested funds in the salary fund. Thus, profitability of work shows that the income of real estate development companies created by work of hired employees exceeds their total salary by 8 times.

Relative stability of an indicator of salary capacity specifies the fact that in general, the nominal wage increases in a construction industry slightly. Work of construction workers in 2015 is estimated on an average nominal wage. High growth rate of labor productivity was observed in 2010, showing further decrease. This fact is connected with crisis in the mortgage sphere 2008-2010, and as a result, decrease in level of investments and the equity of real estate development companies.

Diagram 4. Capital productivity and a capital intensity in construction branch of Kazakhstan

 

In the analysis of capital productivity and capital-output ratio the original cost of fixed assets of construction sector instead of annual average value in this connection we don't exclude an error since calculations of these indicators are carried out to tenge was used and don't exclude an inflation component in revaluation of fixed assets. However in the considered period high values of consumer inflation were observed only in 2007. On average, without inflation of 2007, the indicator of inflation constituted 7,2%.

The analysis of capital productivity of fixed assets of a construction industry shows a tendency to increase in this indicator. So in 2010 for one tenge of BF 1,26 tenges of an end product, and in 2014 - already 1,9 tenges were created. This fact specifies efficiency of use of a property, plant and equipment.

Decrease in an indicator of capital-output ratio which we observe within the analyzed period shows that in 2010 fixed assets 0,79 tenges were the share of one tenge of the turned-out products, and in 2014 the coefficient made 0,53 tenges for one tenge of products. It also specifies that efficiency of use of BF in construction sector only increases.

As an investment financing source in fixed capital the construction organizations, mainly, use own means which annual average share in the total amount of investments varies within 54/island. Participation of banks in crediting in construction sector for the last 2 years was insignificant - and constituted about 9% of the total amount of investments.

 

Diagram 5. Investments into housing construction of Kazakhstan

Source: Committee according to the statistics RK, RA RFTsA

 

The specific weight of annual government subsidies changes unevenly and contains on average 23% of the total amount of investments. According to preliminary data Committee according to the statistics of RK in 2015 the allocated public funds for housing construction constitute about 119.1 billion tenges.

The amount of annual investments continues to increase. In 2015 the construction sector received investments about 719.1 billion tenges or 3,2 billion US dollars.

This coefficient analysis on agricultural industry of Kazakhstan will be supplemented within a year in process of accumulating of basic data and other statistics.

Fall of the prices in the market of primary and secondary real estate where the prices fell by 25-40% depending on type of the house and its location became result. Many real estate development companies which actively took bank loans are in a collapse condition now.

"Crisis in the construction sphere is, certainly, a consequence of post-bank crisis", - the expert of the Moscow center Carnegie Alex Malashenko noted in an interview to "The independent newspaper". However, in his opinion, it is impossible to exclude also that this banal redistribution of spheres of influence which sharpness and simultaneity were created intentionally. The current situation will only promote in some way natural selection. That is in the market there will be well proved builders. Moreover, the companies to which banks will block financing will be forced to sell unfinished housing at reduced price. "Thus, in the market there will be only large, tied on the state firms", - Malashenko considers.

Negative effect of a construction collapse, increasing in a geometrical progression, will be serious. First of all, in much real estate development companies there took place large-scale dismissals. Also the number of realtor offices was reduced. All this urged on growth of unemployment in Kazakhstan, it was followed by decrease in purchasing power of the population that already affected service trade.

At the same time banks will be forced to be reoriented on the domestic market that will lead to growth of the competition for local resources - the placed deposits of the population and legal entities. Proceeding from it, increase in deposit interest rates is observed. In the conditions of capital outflow from the country and devaluation of national currency the inflation problem comes to the forefront again. And it means that shortage of liquid resources in the domestic market, even on condition of their excess in the country, will remain permanent.

According to the political scientist Dosym Satpaev, "many real estate development companies which actively took bank loans appeared in a collapse. It led to the fact that a large number of buildings in many cities of Kazakhstan practically stopped. It hit at the interests of several thousand shareholders who already invested money in a construction. Increase in social tension in communication is at the moment observed by active protest actions from shareholders who unite for upholding of the rights. If to consider that, by estimates of some experts, in the construction market about 2,5 million people "are fed", then the negative multiplicative effect of a construction collapse will be serious".

But to the fact that the market will recover from crisis and will develop there are objective prerequisites. Among the most obvious – is deficit of living space in Kazakhstan.

The amount of a dwelling stock over the last ten years practically didn't change. In 1998 all city housing stock constituted 20,8 million sq.m of total area, 19,6 sq.m were the share of one inhabitant. In 2008 – is about 18 sq.m. According to the Agency according to the statistics RK, a situation on city settlements looks as follows. In 62% of housing constructions for 1 person 12,5 sq.m of total area and 8,25 sq.m of living space are necessary, in 34% of housing constructions for 1 person 62 sq.m of total area and 41 sq.m of living space are necessary.

In the village the situation is at least difficult. In 69% of housing constructions - 10 sq.m of total area and 7 sq.m of living space, in 30% of housing constructions - 50 sq.m of total area and 35 sq.m of living space. It is connected, first, with the fact that construction of new houses is made on the place of the demolished old. And secondly, officially for this period the population of Almaty increased with 1130,1 thousand persons to 1335,08 thousand persons. So to reach the European standards, or at least to meet domestic requirements, builders should work much. The problem of shareholders which, certainly, without participation of the state can't be solved is one more source of stimulation of housing construction.

And again I suggest to address statistics. In Astana there are more than 32 thousand shareholders, in Almaty, according to department, their about 10 thousand. The funds allocated for completion of a construction guarantee not only public tranquility, the operating buildings will provide workplaces, tax revenues and new mortgage loans and already on other conditions.

The state, in return, already undertakes measures recovering the market of shared-equity construction. It is planned to redeem more than 4 thousand apartments in 30 objects of shared-equity construction, the possibility of allocation of additional 17 billion tenges on completion of a construction of the most problem objects is also discussed.

Besides, for prevention of frauds concerning shareholders the state toughens requirements to builders. Now amendments to the law "About Equity in Housing Construction" are under consideration in the government. In particular, it is planned to increase the authorized capital of the builder to 20% of a construction cost, at the same time experience of the builder shall constitute at least three years, and for these years the builder is obliged to build at least hundred apartments.

At the same time there is a work on refinancing of mortgage loans. From 120 billion tenges allocated with the Kazakhstan government for these purposes 102 billion tenges are mastered today. In banks 41,4 thousand requests from which 30 thousand are satisfied arrived. Work with the remained creditors will be finished by banks at the expense of own means.

 

References:

1. N. A. Nazarbaev "Kazakhstan – 2050. Prosperity, safety and improvement of a welfare of all Kazakhstan citizens" the Strategy of development for Kazakhstan till 2050. Almaty: 2015.

2. Sagindykova S. Foreign investments in Kazakhstan: analysis and forecast of investment processes. Almaty: 2014.

3. The presidential decree RK from 6. 03. 2014 "About approval of Rules of provision of privileges and preferences in case of the conclusion of contracts with the investors performing investing activities in priority sectors of economy".

4. Relevance of implementation of international standards ISO for the Kazakhstan entities.//Bulletin of University of the international business No. 1 (15), Almaty, January-March, 2015, page 53-55.

5. The standard legislation in the field of quality management of construction products//the Bulletin of University of the international business No. 1 (15), Almaty, January-March, 2015, page 55-58.

6. Conceptual bases of product quality control//Bulletin of Turan University, No. 1 (45), Almaty, 2014, page 25-27.