Economic sciences/2

Economic sciences/2.International activity

Natalia Lashkevich

Master of Economics, PhD-candidate of the University “G.d’Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, Italy e-mail: lashkevich.n@gmail.com, priorpost@mail.ru.

Food risks in imported wheaten pasta into

the EU Pasta Market.

Summary

The EU Single Pasta Market is characterized of steady growth of imports during 2001-2011 years, the increase notifications about food hazards. The regression analysis allowed to identify a correlation and relationship between pasta imports and food risks. More perspective measures to strengthen the food safety policy of the EU is to improve border quality controls.

Keywords: the EU, pasta, imports, food risks, correlations.

Introduction

The globalization of the food trade offers many benefits to consumers, as it results in a wider variety of commodities. However, these changes also present new challenges of the food safety during the production and distribution and have been shown to have widespread repercussions on health. [1] In industrialized countries, the percentage of the population suffering from foodborne diseases each year has been reported to be up to 30%. [2] So, the interest in the safety of imported foods has increased over time. Foodborne diseases not only significantly affect people's health and also they have economic consequences for countries. The Economic Research Service of the USDA estimated the cost of foodborne illnesses pathogen-challenged. The cost a foodborne illness is challenged by Salmonella is 2.708.292.046$ in 2010.[3] Therefore food risks must be controlled and managed constantly.

Food risks in imported wheaten Pasta into the EU Single Market

Borders of the EU have increased during the last decade and now it includes 27 Member States. This tendency of globalization leads to the liberalization of trade relations between countries. Taking into consideration the importance of the economic consequences of foodborne illnesses the analysis of the EU Pasta Market has implemented in a framework of correlation “trade flows – food risks”.

During 2001-2011 years the RASFF system received 166 notifications about the presence food safety risks in wheaten Pasta which was imported, exported and consumed at the EU single market. [4]

Figure 1 Dynamic food risks of wheaten pasta

The graphic 1 demonstrates fluctuations: peak of food risks was in 2005 and 2011 years; the growth of notifications since 2003 till 2005 and since 2009-2011. So, the general tendency of last three years is the increase of food risks.

For the forecast a situation in analyzing food safety area the polynomial of the sixth degree was built. The got trend line shows the steady growth of food risks in 2012-2014 years.

Table 1 Food risks in wheaten pasta

year	biocontaminants	mycotoxins	microorganisms	radiation	xenobiotics		control		compositions			adulteration (import rules)	Total
year	biocontaminants	mycotoxins	microorganisms	radiation	aluminium	(detergent)	org asp	control	ingradients	trans fatty acids	food additives	adulteration (import rules)	Total
2001													0
2002													0
2003					1						4		5
2004				1							17		18
2005			2								27		29
2006	2	2		6					1		3		14
2007	1	2	1	1		1			1		6		13
2008	1	1									4		6
2009	3	3			2				1		4		13
2010	1	1	2		5		1	1	3	1	3		18
2011	2	2	2	6	33				1		3	1	50
Total	10	11	7	14	41	1	1	1	7	1	71	1	166
Total by cluster	10	11	7	14	42		2		79			1	166
Share of cluster	6,02	6,63	4,22	8,43	25,30		1,20		47,6			0,60	100

Table 1 shows the list of food risks in wheaten pasta by hazard and frequency. The group of risks “compositions” takes the most share among the total notifications – 47,6% (or 79 notifications). The share of “xenobiotics” is 25,3% (or 42). Such food risks as “biocontaminants”, “radiation”, “mycotoxins” and “microrganisms” have low level of frequency, because its share is situated in the interval 4-9%. Notifications about “controls” and “adulteration” were received very seldom; its share is 1,2% and 0,6% respectively. The database of food risks in wheat pasta presented in table 1 allowed to admit: 1) the information about such food risks as “food additives”, “biocontaminants” and “mycotoxins’ was received constantly; 2) slump of food risks “food additives” was since 2006 year; 3) sharp peak of “xenobiotics” (here – “aluminium”) was in 2011 year.

Figure 2 Ranking origin countries of pasta by share in total food risks

The analysis and ranking (see figure 2) notifications by origin country showed the more “harmful” countries are China (29,52%) and Italy (24,7%) and then Hong Kong (8,43%), Netherlands (8,43%), Thailand (6,02%), Viet Nam (3,61%). The frequency of notifications about the presence food hazards in pasta exported from other countries at the EU single market is very low, namely 1-2%.

To assess a correlation between food risks and the Extra-EU trade at the EU Pasta Market, the regression analysis has used. In order to identify the relationship between these variable – food risks and the Extra-EU imports – table 2 with data was created.

Table 2. Database for the regression analysis.

Year

(n)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Food risks (y)

Extra-EU imports,ThT (x)

83,3

97,5

102,4

118,9

125,7

134,2

157,5

171,1

181,4

181,9

199,7

Source: [4], [5]

y_(x) = 0,22x-16,28

Figure 3. Regression line

The regression analysis showed that there is a correlation between imports and food risks, because the regression coeffitient (r_xy) is 0,605 and the coefficient of determination R² is 0,365. The use of the regression equetion y_(x)= 0,22x-16,28 allowed to estimate the predicted level of food risks depended of predicted volume of imports. The results is presented in table 3.

Table 3 Predicted food risks in predicted pasta imports at the EU Single Market

Variable		Value
Imports, ThT	x_p	200,0	210,0	220,0	230,0	240,0	250,0
Food risks	y_p	28,14	30,36	32,58	34,80	37,03	39,25

Table 3 shows the growth of food risks with the parallel growth of imports. So, in order to protect the european consumers it is necessary to improve food safety and quality control measures.

Figure 4 Structure of the EU controls

The analysis of the EU’s control activity presented at the figure 3 showed that internal controls play a key role in order to ensure the food safety and prevent food risks. And such type of controls as “official control on the market” takes the first place in the control activity at the EU single market. Hence, in order to ensure steady food safety situation at the EU single market it is necessary to strengthen the national food quality and safety control and monitoring systems.

Conclusions

Processes of world globalization and integration affect on international trade influence on the food safety situation at the EU food markets.

The analysis trade tendencies at the EU Pasta Market showed that pasta imports were increased annually during 2001-2011. Built regression line and calculated coefficients (of correlation and determination) confirmed a relationship between the volume of pasta imports and the level of food risks.

Presented structure of food risks allowed to admit the most “harmful” pasta imports were from China and Italy.

Such type of food safety and quality monitoring as “official controls” has played a key role in the protection of consumer consumption in order to prevent foodborne illnesses. So, to heighten the protection of the EU internal markets in the food safety area, it is necessary to continue to develop the internal controls and to strengthen the border quality and safety controls.

References:

[1] ASSURING FOOD SAFETY AND QUALITY: GUIDELINES FOR STRENGTHENING NATIONAL FOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS // Joint FAO/WHO Publication

[2] Fact sheet N°237 Reviewed March 2007 / WHO

[3]Foodborne Illness Cost Calculator [e-source] // http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodborneIllness/

[4]Notifications list [e-source] https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/rasffwindow/portal/

[5] Eurostat. International trade. [e-source] http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/international_trade/data/database