Региональные политические процессы

A.N. Ospanova, P.K. Kilybayeva, S.B. Omash

L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana city

The appearance of US policy in Central Asia

In the USA policy in Central Asia since 1991 we can distinguish three phases, when five states - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - became independent. The first phase - from the collapse of the USSR until September 11, 2001 - the United States had three priorities: to secure weapons of mass destruction, inherited from the Soviet Union; to help Central Asian countries to strengthen and defend the newly acquired sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity in the case of the revival of Russian imperialism; to break the monopoly on the Russian pipeline system and transit routes for Central Asian oil and gas in the region as a guarantee of independence from Moscow. US unequivocally rejected the geopolitical approach towards Central Asia in favor of long-term policy support for the formation of a democratic, free markets and economic integration system in the region. However, the US government did not give priority to Central Asia. US efforts to strengthen stability, security, economic prosperity and good governance in the region have been modest.

After September 11, the relationship between Washington and Central Asia and the nature of cooperation with the countries of the region have changed dramatically. Of course, interest in the implementation of the long-term program of political and economic reforms was maintained, but in the first place Washington had considerations related to military and security tasks. The need for logistical support of US military operations in Afghanistan, and therefore dependent on access to the region's military infrastructure prevailed over the desire to promote political and economic reforms, respect for human rights. Washington began to attach great importance to cooperation with the countries in the field of security, where he developed base, also to the US geopolitical position in the region as a whole. From the area of secondary attention Central Asia became the region which occupied an important place in the strategy of the USA, even if it was not connected with his own importance, but it was associated with a supporting role in the stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. The first two phases of America's relations with the independent Central Asia share a common theme: US interests lie outside of the region - and Washington's actions were the result of political priorities and relations with the surrounding area. Now that the presence and role of US combat units in Afghanistan is significantly reduced, Washington needs to re-define their interests, priorities and build relationships in the region - and in a situation where the willingness and ability of Russia to interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbors increased. Moreover, long-term goal of strengthening the influence in Central Asia, which is pursued by both Moscow and Beijing, can increase the tension between them, and between the states of the region. The rivalry between the two powers encourages the Central Asian states to strive to ensure that Western involvement in the region remained to contain Russia and China's ambitions [1].

Over the past 25 years traversed Central Asia, it is possible to make such findings: due to the internal situation in these countries and the region as a whole, due to the geopolitical environment, because of the limited American interests and resources in the region and will remain beyond the reach of the US "transformational diplomacy". During the years of 1992-2014 US economic and military assistance to the five Central Asian states was less than $ 6.8 billion (without inflation): he largest size of $ 649 million, reached in 2010, when the number of American troops in Afghanistan was 100 000 troops [2]. The rotation of troops in Afghanistan pass through the US Manas Transit Center in Kyrgyzstan and the scope of US military operations at that time required a large-scale logistics, a critical element of which was the overland transport route through Central Asia. It should be noted, however, that the "northern route of delivery" was used mainly for the transport of non-military cargoes to Afghanistan [3], but combat gear dispatched by air. The clotting of military operations in Afghanistan means that the meaning of Central Asia to USA could decrease. Already in 2014, US aid to the region amounted to only $ 148 million [4], comparing with 2010 it is very low figure.

This does not mean that it is time to turn away from Central Asia or abandon efforts to promote American ideals, to stimulate good governance and economic development and adequate support for security. However resources for the implementation of US policy in Central Asia, is likely to be little. Thus, in the future, America will have to adjust their expectations for the Central Asian states and the requirements for the volume of investment that the US is ready to do in the region. In these conditions it is necessary to determine what American interests coincide with the interests of other major powers - especially Russia and China - and how to take advantage of it.

The spread of mass destruction weapons

For a long time one of the main tasks of the USA in Central Asia was to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. After the collapse of the Soviet Union most of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, and related infrastructure went to Kazakhstan. The export of weapons and the dismantling of the infrastructure has become one of the major achievements of American policy in the field of non-proliferation and cooperation with Kazakhstan in this issue remains one of the main elements of the relations between the two countries [5]. The desire of Kazakhstan to play an active role in the efforts of the international community on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons gives the USA the ability to maintain cooperation with the largest economic potential of the Central Asian country.

The rest of Central Asia will remain a zone of common interest in the field of mass destruction non-proliferation, but is not a region of particular concern. The United States should continue its work to prevent nuclear smuggling - to ensure the safety of a small amount existing materials and objects which do not have an effective protection. The results can be achieved through measures to enhance the security of the objects, that does not require large expenditures. Also the same results can be achieved through strengthening border controls, but it can be difficult because of the corruption of border services of Central Asia. These problems can be solved in cooperation with Russia and China, which are also concerned about the problem of non-proliferation of mass destruction weapons.

Radical Islamic terrorism

The United States is interested in the fact that Central Asia does not become a haven for radical Islamic militants. Since 2000, in Afghanistan and some parts of Pakistan, there are several terrorist groups created in Central Asia. Although currently these groups do not represent a direct terrorist threat to the United States and Central Asia and are unlikely to represent it in the near future, some of them are collaborating with the "Taliban" movement [6], while others are associated with "Al-Qaeda" [7], and some militants from Central Asia, according to reports, have joined the "Islamic state" [8]. Much of Central Asia is for radical groups is hostile territory - because of largely to the work of local security forces. However, in some areas, such as remote and poorly controlled areas of Tajikistan, radical organizations can find ways to create bridgeheads - especially if the conflict goes beyond the borders of Afghanistan, where the Taliban have captured the territory in the Northern provinces. If this happens, the penetration of radical organizations in Central Asia will eventually become a serious threat to regional stability and security. Permanent US assistance to Central Asian countries in the fight against terrorism could contribute to preventive neutralize this threat.

Energy and economic cooperation

The USA still interested in the Central Asian regional energy market, associated with Afghanistan, Europe, South and East Asia. The US efforts have focused on the implementation of the plan for the construction of a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI gas pipeline). In December 2015, Turkmenistan has passed ceremony TAPI with the leaders of all four countries. However, this project is questionable. Turkmenistan was a difficult partner, and possibly Turkmenistan simply has not enough gas to fully implement all its contractual obligations. In addition, there are problems with financing the construction, as well as long-term threat to its security in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The nuclear agreement "5 + 1" with Iran could also influence developments in the energy market in the region - it is possible that will be resumed pipeline projects and other communication between Central and South Asia. The USA’s commercial interests: expansion of regional economic cooperation and diversification of the economy of the Central Asian countries beyond the extraction and export of natural resources. The United States should take advantage of Kazakhstan's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2015, as well as the willingness of that country and Kyrgyzstan to submit to EITI standards in the extractive industries - to encourage Central Asian states to cooperate with international financial institutions. This will help to make the business environment more open and legal in these countries [9]. Promoting transparency and accountability in this area would contribute to achieving US goals in the spread of the rule of law area.

Regional integration and the New Silk Road

Strengthening regional integration in Central Asia has been an objective of US policy. As noted above, the main project in this area - the American initiative of the New Silk Road (NSR). However, due to the fact that the United States is not prepared to support the project financially, its implementation is rather disappointing and long-term prospects NSR - and the possibility of regional economic integration as a whole - is at best problematic. This is due to several reasons.

The Central Asian states except Turkmenistan, are unwilling to exercise any regional economic integration, to create a transport network, which would link the region with its neighbors in South Asia.

The governments of these countries are seeking to improve relations with India and Pakistan, but do not wish to come closer to Afghanistan and suspect that the real motive NSR initiatives linked to Washington's support for Kabul, but not with the interests of the Central Asian states in the field of economy and security.

India - the most important of the potential participants NSR - relates to the project without enthusiasm, and China courting Pakistan and Afghanistan, offering their infrastructure investments.

Russia opposed NSR as fears that the initiative will undermine Moscow's influence in the region, reorienting Central Asian states to the south.

Chinese project "Economic belt of the Silk Road" is for Central Asia NSR convincing alternative, and in addition it provided 46 billion by fund, as well as the opportunity to receive funding from the recently established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

None of the potential regional participants has not yet joined to the project. There are other obstacles: the inability of the USA government today to find private investors for NSR, as well as political, legal, organizational problems and a lack of security guarantees for business in Central Asia. Will it be possible for China to realize its ambitious and costly plans, it is unclear. But even if Beijing would cut them by half or more, the USA is unlikely to be able to take on comparable financial obligations on his own project.

In conclusion, the Central Asian countries in the first years of independence were geopolitically oriented to the West, including Western political institutions and security structures and the economic model of reform and development. The transition to a market economy and liberal reforms, not always successfully implemented, not seen in the region of a serious political and ideological opposition, as credible alternative models simply did not exist. For many years, the West has been to the Central Asian countries the main source of economic and technical assistance. The first initiatives for the implementation of the region's energy potential have been proposed and supported by the governments of the West: the USA and European companies. Out to the international arena of Central Asian states was driven mainly by Western organizations. Even Russia at that time sought to integrate with the West, and it was another, albeit indirect, relationship with the Western world. In the early post-Soviet years, the United States could help the five new Central Asian countries to become independent and sovereign states. At this crucial stage in America carried out its promises. In turn, the countries of Central Asia emerged as important partners for the United States when it was necessary. Now everything is different, the region went in the other direction: the main economic partner is China; economic growth slowed in Russia and its policy towards neighboring countries has changed dramatically; Western interest in Central Asia is extinguished, and its importance for solving the region's problems in the fields of economy, politics and security decreases. All these developments bode weakening of the USA and Western influence in Central Asia - it is more and more drawn into the political and economic orbit of China, and sometimes seeks refuge under a Russian security umbrella.

This does not mean that the United States needs to turn away from Central Asia or just stop paying attention to it. Rather, it is a call for prudence and realism, to ensure that the focus on the results that actually achieve, if you act within the framework of multilateral cooperation, including the large and powerful neighbors in the region. The Central Asian states are interested in maintaining friendly relations with the United States - at least in order to counterbalance the influence of China and Russia; it should create real opportunities for interaction between the United States with the countries of the region and respect for mutual interests.

References:

1. Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, Paul Stronski “U.S. Policy Toward Central Asia 3.0” January 25, 2016

2. United States Agency for International Development. U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants: Obligations and Loan Authorizations, July 1, 1945 — September 30, 2013 (accessed August 14, 2015) (https://www.explorer.usaid.gov/prepared/Total_Economic_and_Military_Assistance_1946-2013.xlsx).

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