Economic sciences/13. Regional economics

 

Ph. D. Deitch O. I.,

Bondarenko P. Y.

Irkutsk State Agricultural Academy, Russia

Sustainable development of regional economics:

problems and model approaches

 

In the modeling of regional processes it is important to remember that social reality is conventional and intersubjective, diverse and hierarchical, and exists in the time not only actually, but also virtually - as an opportunity. Anyway, it is a reality that is involved by modern synergetic approach to the formation of a strategy for sustainable economic development in the twenty-first century.

Certainly, the ontological economics does not exist in a static state. Economic life is presented as infinite flow of changes, sometimes laminar, sometimes turbulent, occurring at different speeds and intensity, synchronic and diachronic,  so  synergetic way the of economics as a field, environ (open system) is more realistic, than the form of hard quasiobject of systemic organismic nature.

Recall that not only the economic subsystem of the region, but the region itself should be submitted as entyresystem [2]. And, most importantly, as an elements of reality appear not stable economic groups, institutions, existing relationship between the society and nature, but the processes of grouping and regrouping, processes of organization and reorganization, in the general case - processes of formation of new and decomposition of the old structures, i.e.  structuring and destructuring processes at the macro and micro levels.

In this situation, an idea of the region as a dissipative system serves as a methodological basis for the submission of economic "sustainable development" as "dissipative" development or, in other words, the problem of "structural stability" of the region - the effect of creating structures in the process of dissipation, when over time all trajectories of the system will strive to the attractive finite set called attractor.

At research of economic development of the region, as the attractor is understood certain (limit) dynamic and, of course, the relative balance of nature-social integrity, and the development is presented as a transition from one structurally stable state (attractor) to another. In the case of guided development the new stable state - attractor is interpreted as an achievement of such an economic situation in the region, which acts as a development goal.

This property of dissipative systems serves as a theoretical basis for the allocation of a specific set of so-called order parameters and provides an opportunity to apply mathematical theory of dynamical systems to simulate the evolution as the individual components of the regional economic processes, and to the region as a whole.

At the methodological standpoint, it is important that the opening of structure-attractors (firmly entered the scientific folklore and became a kind of classic of models of dissipative structures) provides additional opportunities for short-term forecasts of sustainable economic development of the region. But on the other hand, the awareness of the fundamental role of chaos in nature and society, a stunning discovery onset of chaos even in the models described by ordinary differential equations, has revealed some fundamental limitations of certainty of forecasts. It turns out: to predict the future of such systems is possible, but any error in the initial conditions so rapidly increases that there is almost nothing left from the forecast.

In this regard, upon the analysis of complex economic systems by methods of nonlinear dynamics, the aspect of how fundamental limitations of time scales of predictable evolution of the region should be taken into account. Essentially it is a "memory" of the system, i.e., that, for example, how quickly consequences of social actors (micro level) cease to have any effect of actions of at the macro level. For example, typical for most of the investigated social-economic nonlinear systems "forgetting" of the initial conditions, in mathematical terms, the output from a whole class of initial values on the same self-similar solution indicates that an order in the system or on the self-organization [1].

Yield to the self-similar solution means reducing the number of degrees of freedom and the allocation of the main parameters of the order to which all others are adjusted. The meaning of self-similar solution – is a traveling wave, which characterizes the communication properties of the system and specifies the asymptotic behavior of the process. It determines the localized configuration (structures), within which the processes are coordinated. Their very existence is a paradox. In an economic environment where there is a dissipative process, which usually destroys any order, as a result of interactions arises stable states that mathematically looks like structure retains its shape in the phase space of states. Therefore, knowledge of the initial data, resulting in relatively stable states of the system -  structure-attractors of economic development of the region, in many cases, it would be very useful and would give possibility of more accurately prediction.

Recall that the instability can act and acts as condition of stability and dynamic development. Instabilities may be of different origin. They can occur as a result of the creation of new technologies, major investments, a sharp rise in living standards, the correct choice of development priorities, and vice versa. Regardless of their origin, instabilities usually apply to all spheres of life in the region, leading thus to a rapid change in the parameters of development, and even ways of development. In other words, field of attraction of system attractors are changed, and the region goes into a new stable state.

Taking into account the fact that the remarkable universal property of thin orientation systems on factors of internal and external conditions of its structuring - resonant excitation of dissipative structure, in other words, there remains attraction of the same attractor – the way of development, the same mode of motion of the system, the mechanism of concerted (cooperative) movement can be considered as a mechanism of economic stability.

Literature:

1.                 J. Casti. Large systems. Complexity, connectivity, disasters. - Moscow, 1982. – P. 27-34.

2.                 Y.K. Krylov. Entyrelogy and Synergetics //Synergetics and methods of science. – Saint Petersburg, 2008. - P. 77-80.