Economic sciences/13. Regional economics
Ph.
D. Deitch O. I.,
Bondarenko P. Y.
Irkutsk
State Agricultural Academy, Russia
Sustainable development of regional economics:
problems and model approaches
In the modeling of
regional processes it is important to remember that social reality is
conventional and intersubjective, diverse and hierarchical, and exists in the
time not only actually, but also virtually - as an opportunity. Anyway, it is a
reality that is involved by modern synergetic approach to the formation of a
strategy for sustainable economic development in the twenty-first century.
Certainly, the ontological
economics does not exist in a static state. Economic life is presented as
infinite flow of changes, sometimes laminar, sometimes turbulent, occurring at
different speeds and intensity, synchronic and diachronic, so
synergetic way the of economics as a field, environ (open system) is
more realistic, than the form of hard quasiobject of systemic organismic
nature.
Recall that not only the
economic subsystem of the region, but the region itself should be submitted as
entyresystem [2]. And, most importantly, as an elements of reality appear not
stable economic groups, institutions, existing relationship between the society
and nature, but the processes of grouping and regrouping, processes of
organization and reorganization, in the general case - processes of formation
of new and decomposition of the old structures, i.e. structuring and destructuring processes at the macro and micro
levels.
In this situation, an idea of the region as a dissipative system serves as
a methodological basis for the submission of economic "sustainable
development" as "dissipative" development or, in other words,
the problem of "structural stability" of the region - the effect of
creating structures in the process of dissipation, when over time all
trajectories of the system will strive to the attractive finite set called
attractor.
At research of economic development of the region, as the attractor is
understood certain (limit) dynamic and, of course, the relative balance of
nature-social integrity, and the development is presented as a transition from
one structurally stable state (attractor) to another. In the case of guided
development the new stable state - attractor is interpreted as an achievement
of such an economic situation in the region, which acts as a development goal.
This property of dissipative systems serves as a theoretical basis for the
allocation of a specific set of so-called order parameters and provides an
opportunity to apply mathematical theory of dynamical systems to simulate the
evolution as the individual components of the regional economic processes, and
to the region as a whole.
At the methodological
standpoint, it is important that the opening of structure-attractors (firmly
entered the scientific folklore and became a kind of classic of models of
dissipative structures) provides additional opportunities for short-term
forecasts of sustainable economic development of the region. But on the other
hand, the awareness of the fundamental role of chaos in nature and society, a
stunning discovery onset of chaos even in the models described by ordinary
differential equations, has revealed some fundamental limitations of certainty
of forecasts. It turns out: to predict the future of such systems is possible,
but any error in the initial conditions so rapidly increases that there is
almost nothing left from the forecast.
In this regard, upon the
analysis of complex economic systems by methods of nonlinear dynamics, the
aspect of how fundamental limitations of time scales of predictable evolution
of the region should be taken into account. Essentially it is a
"memory" of the system, i.e., that, for example, how quickly
consequences of social actors (micro level) cease to have any effect of actions
of at the macro level. For example, typical for most of the investigated
social-economic nonlinear systems "forgetting" of the initial
conditions, in mathematical terms, the output from a whole class of initial
values on the same self-similar solution indicates that an order in the system
or on the self-organization [1].
Yield to the
self-similar solution means reducing the number of degrees of freedom and the
allocation of the main parameters of the order to which all others are
adjusted. The meaning of self-similar solution – is a traveling wave, which
characterizes the communication properties of the system and specifies the
asymptotic behavior of the process. It determines the localized configuration
(structures), within which the processes are coordinated. Their very existence
is a paradox. In an economic environment where there is a dissipative process,
which usually destroys any order, as a result of interactions arises stable
states that mathematically looks like structure retains its shape in the phase
space of states. Therefore, knowledge of the initial data, resulting in
relatively stable states of the system -
structure-attractors of economic development of the region, in many
cases, it would be very useful and would give possibility of more accurately
prediction.
Taking into account the
fact that the remarkable universal property of thin orientation systems on
factors of internal and external conditions of its structuring - resonant
excitation of dissipative structure, in other words, there remains attraction
of the same attractor – the way of development, the same mode of motion of the
system, the mechanism of concerted (cooperative) movement can be considered as
a mechanism of economic stability.
Literature:
1.
J. Casti. Large systems. Complexity,
connectivity, disasters. - Moscow, 1982. – P. 27-34.
2.
Y.K. Krylov. Entyrelogy and
Synergetics //Synergetics and methods of science. – Saint Petersburg, 2008. -
P. 77-80.