Usmanov S.M., Borzova I.S.

Ivanovo State University, Russia

Topical problems of “color revolutions” on post-Soviet space: experience of Ukraine and Belorussia

Ukrainian “orange revolution” of 2004 was without any doubt one of the most important events on post-Soviet space during the last two decades. It has raised many questions, marked out topical tendencies of possible political transformations in newly independent states. It has forced the political elites and masses in many countries and regions to consider the challenges of modern world. Of course Ukrainian events of late autumn 2004 affected neighboring Belorussia. All the more, for Belorussia the problems of democratic transit are also very urgent. It was of great importance for Belorussian opposition and for all Belorussian intellectuals who think about the future of their country.

Opposition movement in modern Belorussia arose in complicated conditions of crisis after the collapse of the USSR firstly as the response to the politics of Soviet power and then as the reaction to the politics of the president Alexander Lukashenko. The very important role in the process of analysis and evaluation of socio-political situation in Belorussia was played by Belorussian intelligentsia. It is very meaningful that the representatives of Belorussian opposition and intelligentsia following the ideas of national revival (as well as the leaders of Ukrainian national intelligentsia) have the aim to prove and demonstrate the specific character of their national identity as the ancient one, different from Russian and having European roots. In this Belorussian intellectuals are very much like “nationally thinking” Ukrainian intellectuals. They insist that real Belorussian identity was distorted in the Soviet period and it is replaced by an alien soviet variant of Belorussian identity.

Belorussian oppositionists and representatives of national intelligentsia have their own view to the history of Belorussia, different from official one. They make their own accents in evaluation of historical events thus constructing their national myth about “the golden age” of Belorussia. The most important historical period is that relating to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania which was formed in XIII century (this historical period is also important for the representatives of Ukrainian national intelligentsia). Some historians and politicians consider that Belorussian political traditions have their roots in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and they are based on the principles of democracy and pluralism and oriented to the West. The national symbols of Belorussian opposition (white-red-white flag, coat of arms “Pahonia”) are also related to the period of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.

One of the main tasks of Belorussian democratic forces and intellectuals (as is written by the leader of Belorussian social-democratic party “People’s Assembly” Nikolay Statkevich) is to promote European values. And Belorussian society itself is more and more drawn towards European democratic values. Analyzing political models in different countries of post-Soviet space he divides them into several groups and marks out that Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Armenia are following the European model of relations between state and society and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are following the Asian one. Belorussian oppositionist raises a question: “Why is Belorussia that hasn’t survived Tatar-Mongol domination and communal land use, with its historical traditions of Magdeburg law, following the Asian model of authority?” [5]

We can make a conclusion that the process of formation of national identity that is so important for the raise of Belorussian nation is rather slow in Belorussia and here Belorussian elite lags behind Ukrainian elite.

Thus as is mentioned by Elena Gapova, “market economy of post-Soviet space together with liberal democracy, on the one hand, and socialism with non-economic constraint as different ways of resources’ distribution, on the other hand, have been “wrapped” in national discourse. Discourse for and against “national things” is indeed the realization of class concern: it concerns not so much national feeling as class interests and Belarus…is a unique example of it” [2].

During the time of its existence in spite of numerous failures Belorussian opposition has gained serious experience of political struggle and potential to become considerable political power. It is also followed by the process of development of Belorussian national identity which is step by step forming apart from Russian one. The natural process of generation’s change will inevitably lead to the fact that senior generation following the Soviet model of country’s development will be substituted by the new generation of Belorussians who do not dream about the Joint state with Russia and feel like a independent nation that has its own place in the family of other European nations.

Successful development of opposition depends to a large extent on the way the civil activity of great masses of population develops. Here the role of Belorussian intelligentsia is really crucial. No doubt that intelligentsia more than any other social group understands the unique complexity and instability of modern political, economic and moral condition of Belorussian state and society.

Belorussian intellectuals, the representatives of “new” intelligentsia and Belorussian opposition have differently reacted to the events of Ukrainian “orange revolution” of 2004.

The experience of “color revolution” in neighboring Ukraine was interesting for Belorussian oppositionists from practical point of view and they have stated their readiness to implement it in Belorussia. Before the start of pre-election campaign of 2006, Belorussian oppositionists have mentioned that the experience of “color revolutions” (especially Georgian and Ukrainian ones) is interesting for them and they are ready to use this scenario. For example, the leader of United civil party Anatoly Lebed’ko has personally met Mikhail Saakashvili and Nino Burdzhanadze in 2005 in Georgia where he was welcomed on a very high level.

“I think that revolution is not the end in itself for Belorussian opposition. But when the other forms of authority’s change do not work then people choose their way to freedom themselves” [4], – said Nino Burdzhanadze after the meeting with Lukashenko’s opponent. Lebed’ko has stated that Belorussian opposition would like to repeat Ukrainian variant [1]. He also agreed with the statement of American president George W. Bush that “orange revolution” is a “convincing example of democracy for people from all over the world” [6].

But in general Belorussian intellectuals have rarely mentioned the Ukrainian example. They mentioned the necessity to use European experience in general but not Ukrainian scenario of the end of 2004. Such insufficient attention to the events of neighboring Ukraine may seem strange because even in Russia the Ukrainian experience was analyzed by Russian intellectuals more precisely.

Here partially we can use the arguments of opponents of democratic transit theory that the supporters of democratic changes in many countries of post-Soviet space focus on a model of “revolution by pattern”. That is why as the experience of the last years shows, some “good revolutions may go bad” [6]. This raises a problem of account of conditions and national peculiarities of each country. This problem has not been solved neither by strategists nor by performers of “color revolutions” (also “jeans revolution” of 2006 in Belorussia). This is one of the reasons of difficulties for those who fight for democracy on post-Soviet space during the last decades.

Literature:

1. Belorussian opposition prefers Ukrainian variant [Electronic resource]. URL: http://afn.by/news/i/59633 (date of access: 18.012.2012).

2. Gapova E. Belorussian intellectuals: between class and nation // Topos. – 2005. – № 1 (10) [Electronic resource]. URL: http://old.belintellectuals.eu/community/community.php?id=24 (date of access: 17.12.2012).

3. Lebedev S. Revolution by pattern [Electronic resource]. URL: http://rusk.ru/st.php?idar=102966 (date of access: 19.12.2012).

4. Mazaeva O. The plan of Lukashenko’s overthrow is prepared in Tbilisi // Independent newspaper. – 2005. – May, 12.

5. Statkevich N. Belarus as the battlefield of values [Electronic resource]. URL: http://old.belintellectuals.eu/ discussions/?id=178 (date of access: 18.12.2012).

6. Carpenter T.G. Good revolutions gone bad // The National Interest. – 2011. – June, 1 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/good-revolutions-gone-bad-5387 (дата обращения: 19.12.2012).

Information about the authors:

Usmanov Sergey Mikhailovich, Doctor of History, professor of Department of general history and international relations (Ivanovo State University)

Address: 153008, Ivanovo, Kolesanova str., 7-5

Telephone: +7(4932) 237281

e-mail: orvozi@rambler.ru

Borzova Irina Sergeevna, PhD (History), associate professor of Department of general history and international relations (Ivanovo State University)

Address: 153022, Ivanovo, Lezhnevskaya str., 120-2

Telephone: 89109871481

e-mail: irafor@yandex.ru