Belova Diana, Samoylov Alexey

Southern Federal University, Russia

 

Approaches of an assessment of solvency of the borrower in bank

There is a gradual improvement in the economy at this time and bank's activity begins to increase. This situation makes more favourable opportunity of development of the market of consumer lending, and lending to individuals in General. Many banks had already began to take into account the official incomes of the family’s members  (in some cases and informal income)  during the last year and turnover on card account, provided commodity loans in the networks of home appliances without income certificate.

How does the Bank consider the potential borrower?

         The Bank carries out the analysis of the received application when it is submitting the request for obtaining a loan. This process consists of the following stages:

• writing the proposal verification (checking) documents, coordination of conditions of the transaction;

• preliminary assessment of the borrower's sales Manager (including the evaluation of the data obtained by direct contact);
• verifying the credit history of the client;

• checking of the data specified by the client in the application form, residence, place of work, income, etc.;

• analysis of the client's ability to repay the mortgage loan;
• structuring the transaction as a possible request for additional comfort factors (surety relatives, increase of the advance fee, the provision of additional collateral etc);

• formation decisions on the request of the client, the signing of this decision at the official in accordance with the powers.

                   The Bank will assesses the future creditworthiness of the potential borrower when it is considering requests for loans. This is one of the ways to prevent or at least minimize the credit risk of the Bank. Solvency or, in other words, creditworthiness  implies the willingness and ability of the borrower in due time and in full, to pay off credit obligations.

         Analysis of the credit history implies checking the data about the quality of the payment discipline of the potential borrower has previously received loans in the Bank (in case of the current client) or in other banks. To check the credit history analysts use internal and external «black lists, white lists, the existing database of credit histories.

Assessment of the solvency at the level of incomes of the potential borrower is carried out on the basis of the data on incomes of physical persons and the degree of risk of their loss. The main income of natural persons is directly their salary (pension), confirmed the provided certificate from the borrower's place of employment. Also take into account other sources of income (income from renting out property, income from business activities, income from deposits, dividends etc) that can be confirmed by the tax Declaration of the client.The credit analysts assess the adequacy of the data provided are based on the minimum wage, average wage levels in the region or industry. Some banks include when calculating the income of other family members, civil partners (often, when providing their sureties). Not confirmed income partially or fully taken into account in accordance with the special matrix, developed and approved by the Bank.

Indirectly, about the size of incomes of the client (in case of official income is not enough) could indicate its costs: buying a car, real estate, expensive equipment, equipment (can be confirmed contracts of purchase), vacations abroad, repairs, have deposits, prematurely repaid loans (can be supported by references from banks).

After that, these revenues are adjusted on mandatory payments (housing, food, transport, clothing, payments on existing loans, insurance etc). The obtained result is compared with the future delivery on the requested limit. Basically, for a positive decision on granting the loan, the net monthly income of the customer (adjusted for fixed charges) must exceed the payment for the requested loan more than 2 times.

In addition, it is also possible to use the indicator of income multiplier, which involves the calculation of the possible loan amount as n-TES increase of the monthly income. In this case, the normal value is considered the debt load up to 50%, and sum of credit should not exceed 4-6 times the net cash income.

When calculating the possible sum of the loan, the Bank still considers the requested limit, as in the case of long-term lending there is an increased inflation risk (especially for our country). In this case, you need a more rigorous approach to assessing the net income of the borrower and correlate calculations on inflation expectations.

Scoring is a mathematical or statistical model based on the credit histories of other clients of the Bank is trying to determine how big is the probability that a potential borrower repay the loan in time. There are different types ñêîðèíãîâ, when analyzing the potential borrower may be used:
• Application-scoring - assessment of the creditworthiness of borrowers for reception of the credit;

• Fraud-scoring - assessment of the likelihood of fraud potential borrower.

There are many models from scoring. Each one uses a different set of factors characterizing the borrower, and gets as a result of its own threshold for risk assessment, which allows the separation of the borrowers in the category. The meaning of credit scoring is that every borrower is attributed to the inherent only to the credit risk assessment. Comparing the values obtained a particular borrower, with specific for each model of the scoring threshold rating helps solve the problem of choice of lending, sharing borrowers into two classes: those who can issue a credit, and those who issuance of loan is contraindicated.

Scoring highlights those features that are most closely connected with the unreliability or, on the contrary, reliability customers of a certain age, profession, education, the same number of dependents, etc. But this is discriminatory and scoring: the man on formal grounds close to the group with bad credit most likely not be able to get a loan. These characteristics conditionally divided into several criteria: personal (age, gender etc), financial (income level, work experience etc), the associated information (availability of the vehicle, land plot, etc).

As a rule, for calculating scoring magnitude banks use the following basic data on the potential debtor: the level of average monthly income and expenses, seniority on the last place of work, the General seniority, age, marital status, number of persons kept, education, the official status of ownership of liquid property.

The scoring model exists to 25 parameters; quality system takes into account many factors and parameters. For each type of loan has its own method of calculating scoring. Information about the criteria for the selection of borrowers are inside information of the Bank, as their accessibility will increase the share of fraud.

The indicator is compared with certain quantitative threshold established by the Bank, which is a line break even. Accordingly, the loan can count the client that the integral value of the data above that threshold.

 

 Example of the scoring assessment:

Parameter

Value of the parameter

Scoring ball

Age, year

äî 20

20

21-25

38

26-30

70

31-35

82

36-50

95

51-60

110

îò 61

25

Family status

single (not married)

110

married

150

he is married, but live separately

65

divorced

90

widowed

85

Number of the days

no

100

1

75

2

55

3

30

more than 3

10

kind of activity

civil service

110

private sector

170

student

80

pensioner

30

Qualification

no

10

support personnel

35

specialist

85

employee

100

leading employee

140

Work experience, year

up to 1

20

up to 2

40

up to 3

65

up to 5

90

more than 5

130

Average income, rub

Less than 4000

15

4000-12000

65

12000-20000

110

20000-40 000

190

more than 40 000

210

 

In order to obtain a positive decision on the loan, the borrower should collect not less than 700 points.

So, get to approximately 780 points will borrower from 30 to 60 years old, married, no children, a specialist employed in the private sector, with experience of up to 5 years and wages from 3 000 to 5 000 RUB. On a positive decision cannot expect the client under the age of 20, single (never been married, without children, still a student, without qualification with experience of up to 1 year and average monthly income of less than 1 000 RUB.

So, we can summarize what factors impact on the credit score:
• financial the position of the borrower, monthly payments on the loan should not exceed 40-50% of the income of the borrower);

• the age of the customer (the majority of banks prefer to issue loans to people of average age of 25-45 years.);

• marital status;

• availability of higher education;

• work experience (employees, who often change their place of work, do not inspire confidence among bankers);

• additional sources of income (if they are, then they must be necessary to specify, it will increase your chances of getting a loan);

• additional property that is in your property (apartment, house, car, etc. - you must provide the relevant documents to the Bank).

 

References:

http://www.mckinsey.com/global_locations/europe_and_middleeast/russia/ru/our_work/fig_case_study

http://www.athena.ru/asite.nsf/0/bff0bf92c3c71589c3256de5002e99f7/$FILE/Êîìïëåêñíàÿ%20îïòèìèçàöèÿ%20äåÿòåëüíîñòè%20áàíêà.pdf

http://www.businessstudio.ru/procedures/iso/bankqm/

http://www.e-xecutive.ru/knowledge/announcement/630488/