MariiaTsedik,

Academy of Municipal Administration

Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, Kyiv

Key trends and challenges of regional Foresight in Ukraine.

Sustainable development and other processes taking place in Ukraine today require the use of innovative and advanced approaches to the existing customary methods.

Old level of scientific and technological competence, limited funding and activation of decentralization processes against a backdrop of increasingly competitive environment, all these factors cause a critical need for brand new techniques to the problem solving at national and especially at regional level. That is why innovation is becoming an increasingly important part for the regional government system which urgently requires efficient and effective mechanisms for the development.

Having analyzed lots of information sources (domestic and foreign scientific works, some good practice examples), we can see that only recently Ukraine has commenced the real search process to find innovative ways for shaping the future of regions. In this context, Foresight can be undoubtedly regarded to be the most prospective and innovative future forecasting technology.

The following Foresight features are considered as the most appealing for both national and especially regional levels:

- involving a large number of participants (government, civil society, science and business);

- focusing on long-term prospects;

- dual-track approach (can be built from the bottom-up (or ascending) and from the top-down (or descending));

- versatility, regularity and holistic nature.

The fact that during Foresight study various functions are being concurrently performed (creating a broad network of experts, forecasting and elements of strategic planning for the future etc.) potentially defines Foresight, as a very promising technology particularly for regional level.

To determine the starting situation of domestic regional Foresight as an object of our study we performed some research using SWOT-analysis method. On its basis all found opportunities were divided into two types: those ones focused on the external environment of the object, and the other ones focused on internal development and improvement.

Among first type opportunities there are some which deserve special attention in particular those ones ensuring competitiveness of products and their promotion on the domestic and international markets. All other positions are mostly focused on internal development and improvement, and the main integrated result is expected to be the region’s significant progress made toward the European standards of living.

Of course, the development of domestic regional Foresight can benefit from some of its strengths such as compliance with European trends of predicting the future, already existing experience of similar and analogous studies, availability of own potential (human resources, information, economic, technological and innovation) for Foresight implementation and maintenance.

Unfortunately, there are also some weaknesses we should focus attention on, among them underdeveloped institutional environment, regulatory framework, not yet sufficient experience of domestic Foresight researches.

As the international experience reveals, the most significant threat of Foresight researches is the lack or termination of funding. In Ukrainian conditions this problem is maybe the most crucial one, but there also can be added some more “domestic features” - unstable government, especially on regional level, as well as the lack of political will.

The research highlights the following current trends in the development of regional Foresight in Ukraine, including:

- institutionalization and formation of appropriate regulatory environment;

- creation of Foresight development centers and dissemination of regional Foresight experience;

- transfer from the theoretical to the practical basis;

- formation of expert networks;

- expansion of objects and areas of regional Foresight;

- intensification of research process and growing amount of publications on the issue;

- establishing national scientific school on regional Foresight.

There are some general milestone problems arising in the course of Foresight studies, including:

- selection of an effective team;

- effective decision-making at all stages of Foresight research process;

- ensuring continuous financing sources;

- right choice of effective research methods;

- ensuring the implementation of the regional Foresight results;

- creation and maintainance of an effective social potential that is capable and interested in further progressive changes in the region.

It’s been determined that one of the main foci regional Foresight should concentrate on is competitiveness and sustainable development of the region, first of all, the development of its leading sectors and industries that will ensure the promotion of their products to external markets. In particular, it can be achieved by forming strategic alternatives based on the agreed vision of the regional government, business, science, public, accelerating innovation and technological advancement of regional development and qualitative breakthrough in its key areas.

Another main focus of regional Foresight should be turned to the economic and technological issues of the region’s future, expecially investments which necessarily consider its specificity and social component, aiming the efforts to reach European standards of living.

One of the important challenges of our time, in our opinion, is creating a culture of regional Foresight, based both on extensive European experience and traditions of its application, and the effective interaction of the state, science, business, community plus the realities of domestic regional development, which has inhereted the procedures of regional strategic forecasting, planning and programming worked out with consideration of good traditions and “domestic peculiarities”.

Ukrainian regional Foresight has to and is able to contribute to the existing theory, practice and culture of regional forecasting, strategic planning and Foresight, as a means to determine needs for future knowledge and perspective regional studies.

References:

1. Tsedik, M. (2012), “Foresight as a method of regional development strategic planning in cross-border cooperation in Ukraine” [Forsayt yak metod stratehichnoho planuvannya rehionalnoho rozvytku v oblasti prykordonnoho spivrobitnytstva v Ukrayini], Scientific Bulletin of the Academy of municipal administration, vol. 4, pp. 255-261, available at: http://nbuv.gov.ua/j-pdf/Nvamu_upravl_2012_4_35.pdf (Accessed 17 November 2015)