Экономические науки/ 16 Макроэкономика.

Alexander Yu. Usanоv

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department "Accounting, analysis and audit" Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF "WAR SANCTIONS" FOR THE REGIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract.

The development of foreign economic activity of the country in general and the region in particular face challenges in terms of anti-Russian sanctions and the introduction of the food embargo. The article examines the economic impact of the entry of the Russian Federation in the Eurasian Economic Union, the purpose of which is the economic development of the member countries to modernize and improve the competitiveness of these countries in the global market. Also analyzed the dynamics of indicators of foreign economic activity of the Saratov region with foreign countries.

To analyze the efficiency of foreign trade activities of the Saratov region, under the EAEC, you must calculate the economic impact of Russian accession to the organization.

The introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, strongly affected the foreign trade activities of the region, and the Russian Federation's membership in the EAEC has not yet led to the expected results in the foreign economic activity of the Saratov region.

Keywords: Eurasian Economic Union, trade, sanctions, embargo, food, Saratov region, exports, imports.

Over the past few years, foreign economic ties of the Russian Federation as a whole, and the Russian regions, in particular, have undergone dramatic changes. It is caused by changes in the conjuncture of world politics and the global economy.

Russia's WTO accession was relatively painless: played its part the gradual introduction of new tariffs and long grace period for protectionist measures to support the national economy.

Falling global energy prices and, according to experts, regular depreciation of the Russian ruble (as the currency of the country with the raw material orientation of the economy), was due to the impact of global macroeconomic indicators. Thus, the Russian Federation does not directly impact on these events, and to solve them without a long-term strategy, and international cooperation is extremely difficult and inefficient.

Thus, the most significant event for the Russian economy in a given period is the Russian Federation's membership in the EAEC (the development of interstate cooperation and common market) and policy on international sanctions (aimed in the direction of Russia, and in the opposite direction). Here, in contrast, from the above-mentioned problems the tactical decisions of the Russian Federation can bring positive results.

Eurasian Economic Union - the international association of economic integration, which participants are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

Union started on 1 January 2015; replaced the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC, acted in 2000-201).

The EAEC currently covers an area of more than 20 million square feet. km with a population of 182.7 million people.

The objectives of the organization are the economic development of member countries, modernization and increase of competitiveness of these countries in the global market. In signing the agreement, the parties undertook to coordinate economic policies and to ensure the free movement of goods, services, capital and labor, implementation of coordinated policies in key economic sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, transport).

At the same time, a signed version of the creation of the EAEC treaty wore compromise, and because a number of measures have been conceived not Implemented in full. In particular, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) and the Eurasian Economic Court did not receive broad powers to monitor compliance with the agreements. If ECE regulations are not met, a moot point considering the Eurasian Economic Court, whose decisions are only advisory in nature, and finally the problem is solved at the level of Heads of State Council. In addition, topical issues on creation of a single financial regulator for energy policy in the field of trade, as well as on the issue of the existence of exceptions or restrictions in trade between the EAEC participants were postponed until 2025 or for an indefinite period.

Also worth noting is that in May 2015 signed an agreement on establishing a free trade area (FTA) between the EAEC and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. On the stage of negotiations on accession to the EAEC is Egypt and Iran, and on the establishment of an FTA with Thailand.

Thus, to analyze the effectiveness of foreign economic activity of the Saratov region, in the EAEC conditions, it is necessary to calculate the economic impact of the entry of the Russian Federation in the organization. To do this, follow the dynamics of indicators of foreign economic activity of the region with the Member States EAEC, namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

However, the foreign trade statistics of the Russian Federation to the Common Economic Area (EEA) is conducted, and only in connection with the entry into force of the Russian Federation from December 7, 2015 № 1329 "On the organization conducting the Russian Federation mutual trade statistics with the states - members of the Eurasian economic union "in the statistical information into account trade data with the countries - members of the EAEC since 2016.

It follows from the above that follow the dynamics of indicators of foreign economic activity of the region with the Member States EAEC, for now, not possible.

However, Russia's membership in EAEC, also implies the possibility of conducting more efficient international trade and not part of this organization with the countries. Analysis of foreign trade activities of the Saratov region with foreign countries (with the exception of the EAEC members) showed that in spite of Russia's membership in EAEC, it does not increase the performance of foreign trade activities of the Saratov region. Exports decreased by 48.3% and amounted to 1,141,545.4 thousand. USD, which indicates the low competitiveness of regional products, but also should take into account depreciation of the ruble. Imports decreased by 34.1% and amounted to 476,448.8 thousand. USD, which indicates a greater dependence on imports in the region than its export orientation. The total foreign trade turnover also fell by 44.8% and amounted to 1,617,994.2 thousand. USD.

On foreign economic activity of the Saratov region, as well as on foreign trade of the Russian Federation as a whole, it is strongly affected by the introduction of a number of foreign countries (among which also are long-standing trading partners Russia) anti-Russian economic sanctions. The reason for this was the entry into the Russian Federation, the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, in March 2014. These measures included the freezing of assets and the introduction of visa restrictions for those included in the special lists, as well as the prohibition of companies of countries to impose sanctions, to maintain business relationships with individuals and organizations that are included in the lists. In addition to these restrictions, it was also taken minimize contacts and cooperation with Russia and Russian companies in various fields.

In response to the introduction of "anti-Russian" sanctions, the Russian Federation has introduced a grocery embargo on countries to support them.

The ban was introduced by the decree of President of Russia on August 6, 2014 "On the application of certain special economic measures in order to ensure the security of the Russian Federation."

The introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, strongly affected the foreign trade activities of the region - a decrease affected all the indicators of foreign trade. On the other hand, the Russian Federation's membership in the EAEC has not yet led to the expected results in the foreign economic activity of the Saratov region.

Foreign economic activity is one of the priority directions of development of the Saratov region. Following the Russian Federation's foreign policy line, in terms of financial and economic pressure on Russia focuses on the deepening of partnerships with the CIS countries, especially members of the Eurasian Economic Union, countries in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the member states of the SCO and BRICS formats. In addition, we hope that will take into account the interests of producers and creation of EAEC will help them enter new markets.

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